The Messenger, Georgia
May 11 2005

Bush, Putin and the prospects of new velvet revolutions

Dominating the foreign policies of the South Caucasus countries are
their relations with the United States and Russia and related, the
way in which relations between Washington and Moscow affect American
and Russian policy towards the Caucasus.

The alignment of the three countries Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia
reflects different possibilities in terms of foreign policy – Georgia
and, to a lesser extent, Azerbaijan are aligned towards Washington
and the West, while Armenia is staunchly pro-Moscow.

These differences are reflected in the way America and Russia are
viewed by the peoples of the South Caucasus. In recent Gorbi polls
carried out across the region, it was found that Georgians are the
most positive in their attitude towards U.S. President George Bush
and the most distrustful regarding Russian President Vladimir Putin.
This is hardly surprising as the United States is seen as a strategic
partner of Georgia and society connects the solution of the country’s
problems more with America.

Nevertheless, only 45 percent of Georgians say they trust Bush,
although this is higher than in Armenia and Azerbaijan, in both of
which 32 percent expressed trust towards the U.S. president. Putin’s
rating among Georgians has fallen markedly since the beginning of
last year, and now stands at just 15 percent, whereas in Azerbaijan
51 percent expressed a positive attitude towards the Russian leader.
Russia is considered Armenia’s main strategic partner and this is
reflected in the fact that the vast majority of Armenians – 87
percent – express trust in Putin, who is rated more highly than
Armenian President Robert Kocharian.

During the polling Azerbaijani and Armenian respondents were asked
whether they thought there would be velvet revolutions similar to
those in Georgian and Ukraine in their country. 56 percent of
Armenians and 55 percent of Azerbaijanis believe there is no
possibility of velvet revolutions taking place in their countries in
the near future. More Armenians – 26 percent – believe a velvet
revolution possible in their country than Azerbaijanis do in theirs –
just 17 percent. It is notable that many more Russians – 38 percent –
believe such a change of power is possible in their country.

In Georgia it can be expected that George Bush’s rating in Georgia
will rise following his visit to the country. What is less clear is
whether the visit will have any impact on Azerbaijan and Armenia –
whether it will, for example, persuade the peoples of their country
of the benefits of following a similar path as that taken in Georgia
and Ukraine.

Following changes of power in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, as well as a
shift in policy in Moldova, which is now oriented more towards Europe
and the United States and Russia, many analysts suggested that
Armenia and Azerbaijan could be the next post-Soviet countries to
experience similar political changes, but it seems that the residents
of those countries, for now at least, are less convinced that this
will be the case.

The other country singled out by analysts as a contender for
political change is Belarus, and it is notable that Belarus
opposition leader Anatoli Lebedko was in Georgia on a private visit
under the invitation of Vice Speaker of Parliament Mikheil
Machavariani at the same time that George Bush was in town. He told
journalists he hoped to take the opportunity to meet with members of
the U.S. administration, adding that “We don’t cherish hopes for
elections in Belarus in 2006. The example of Georgia and Ukraine is
the only way out for us.”

There is no doubt that one reason for Bush’s visit was to express
support for the type of political change that took place in Georgia,
and later in Ukraine. His message, it would seem, has reached the
Belarus opposition, and there is a possibility too that opposition
parties in Armenia and Azerbaijan will also have taken note.