Blood Smeared on Velvet Revolutions
By MIRZA CETINKAYA

Zaman
05.17.2005 Tuesday – ISTANBUL 23:39

In order for the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) to avert an
uncontrolled disintegration, the Mikhail Gorbachev-Eduard Shevardnadze
duo aside, there was also the West that could adjust the brakes and
control speed in the region. But the visibility range of the hurricane
sweeping through the local remnants of the Communist Party in the
former Soviet republics decreases to zero most of the time. Now who
will bump where? It is not that easy to make this prediction in this
part of the world. All eyes having turned to Belarus after US Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice’s compliments to Alexander Lukashenko,
calling him “The last real dictator in Europe,” the “battle ship”
play is now being staged in Central Asia once again.

The struggle between Uzbek leader Islam Kerimov and the groups
he refers to as “terrorist,” has entered a bloody phase. The
demonstrations that were triggered by the trial of 23 young businessmen
accused of plotting to overthrow government, were peaceful at
first. But troops opening fire at protesters, and at an unknown
armed group that raided a prison, turned the incidents into an armed
conflict. According to conflicting figures in the Andijan carnage, a
city in eastern Uzbekistan, almost 500 civilians lost their lives. On
the other hand, Karimov who gave the number of the dead as 10, and
“certainly most of them rebels,” holds Hizb ut-Tahrir he describes as
a terrorist group, responsible for the clashes. But the spokesperson
of the group in London, Imran Vahid, denied any involvement.

According to a claim also shared by Moscow and expressed by Kerimov,
those who raided the prison and the Andijan Governor’s Office came
from Afghanistan and “were very well-organized”. If they came from
Afghanistan, then they are linked to al-Qaeda. Consequently, they are
not appropriate for the velvet revolution. Then, they do not receive
support from the West. That is a clever approach. The fable of Ivan
Krilov is suitable here one again: “The wolf looking at a flock of
sheep from the hole where it is hiding, watches with saliva dripping
from the corner of its mouth, as the shepherd slaughters the fattest
sheep and cuts its meat into pieces. The wolf seeing the shepherd
dogs sunbathing indifferently says, ‘If I had done what the shepherd
is doing, you would raised an uproar’.” Linking the severe problems
over the years to Hizb ut-Tahrir, and providing cosmetic solutions may
cost Tashkent government dear. On the other hand, using force could
make Uzbek Interior Minister Zokir Alamtov introduce the country to
the example of Afghan leader Hafizullah Amin, who was only able to
rule for three months in 1979. Askar Akayev throwing in the towel so
easily resulted in the assumption that anyone who can bring spectators
of a soccer match together can start a revolution. Opponents who
saw Karimov use force will prefer to act more cautiously from now on.

When “truckloads” of dead bodies were brought to the square on
the outskirts of the Pamir Mountains, Armenian opposition close to
Mount Ararat took pains to act more prudently. Opposition leader Aram
Karapetian, who had made the first on a soft revolution in the capital,
Yerevan on May 14, said insistently that the time for a revolution will
be in direct proportion to the number of people they can gather in the
streets. Belarussian opposition leaders are cautious about the methods
used by Kiev and Tbilisi in preparation for a velvet revolution. It
seems that with regards to the colorful revolutions in which blood
has been smeared, more energy and strategy will be needed henceforward.

May 16, 2005 Moscow

05.17.2005 e-mail:m.cetinkaya@zaman.com.tr