EXPERT ON “SCHEDULE OF REVOLUTIONS” IN CIS

MOSCOW, May 17 (RIA Novosti, Larisa Sayenko) – Well-known Russian
political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky, the head of the National
Strategy Institute, presented his idea of the “schedule of revolutions”
on the post-Soviet space. In his opinion, there is the least risk of
revolutions in Turkmenistan and Belarus.

“Revolutions on the post-Soviet space are caused by internal reasons.
The external factor is less important,” Belkovsky said at a RIA
Novosti press conference arguing against the popular opinion about
foreign influence.

Belkovsky named ten mechanisms leading to power shift according to the
scenario of “color revolutions” which had already occurred in Georgia,
Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Among them are the closed power vertical
blocking the inflow of fresh forces, people’s mistrust in rulers,
the lack of public belief in future prospects, ethnic conflicts,
the presence of the opposition and alternative leaders and the
unwillingness of law enforcers to use weapons.

“Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are facing the greatest
revolutionary threat,” Belkovsky said.

According to him, the suppressed unrests in Andizhan (Uzbekistan)
were the precursor of a revolution in Uzbekistan which may occur in
two years.

President Karimov failed to form an ideology and Islam will fill this
vacuum, the expert said.

He said that experienced politician Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan’s
President) could propose some revolutionary project to avoid people’s
unrests.

Russia belongs to the second risk group, Belkovsky said. The key
factors of this group are the closed power vertical, indirect
gubernatorial elections and the merger of bureaucracy with the
political class.

“Prevention of a revolution in Russia and prevention of Russia’s
collapse are the same thing. A revolution may occur in Russia if
everything collapses,” the expert stressed.

In his words, power shift in Russia is possible via parliamentary
and presidential elections. Belkovsky predicts the victory of the
left-wing patriotic bloc.

Azerbaijan also belongs to the second group, he said adding that no
revolution threatened it so far.

However, Belarussian and Turkmen Presidents Alexander Lukashenko and
Saparmurat Niyazov who are sharply criticized by the West seem to be
unshakable rulers, Stanislav Belkovsky said. Their charisma guarantees
their political immunity. In the expert’s opinion, these “dictators”
should be ready for political conspiracies.

“Power shift in these countries may occur if it is masterminded by
their closest retinues,” Belkovsky concluded.