The GUUAM Code: Will Azerbaijan be Next?

Zeynep Gürcanli

The New Anatolian,
18 May 2005

The GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova)
Group was formally founded in the 1990s as a political, economic
and strategic alliance designed to strengthen the independence and
sovereignty of these former Soviet Union republics.

In looking for a name, the officials of the founding countries probably
thought only about finding one that would be easy to remember. They
chose the first letters of the names of their countries.

But in a coincidence, revolutions or insurgencies in the founding
countries occurred in the same order as the name of the GUUAM
organization.

After Georgia and Ukraine, insurgencies shook Uzbekistan last week.
Uzbek President Islam Kerimov suppressed the events with very harsh
methods. But despite this “slap on Kerimov’s iron hand” against
the demonstrators, stability in the country has yet to be fully
established.

The fourth letter of GUUAM is the “A,” which stands for
Azerbaijan. Interestingly, the earliest scheduled elections of the
group will also take place in Azerbaijan. Parliamentary elections in
that country will be held in November.

Remembering that demonstrations that led to the change
of administration in Georgia and Ukraine began just after their
respective elections, the eyes of the international community have
turned to Azerbaijan.

The most sensitive problem in Azerbaijan that could ruin its stability
is apparently the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. So attempts to find a
solution to the problem have been stepped up.

Due to the sensitive domestic situation in Azerbaijan on the eve
of the elections, the international pressure seems mostly targeting
Armenia to make some concessions on the way to a solution.

And the first signals from the Armenian side began to come. During a
short visit to Ankara last week, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Araz
Azimov conveyed critical information to Turkish authorities about
these signals coming from Yerevan.

Under the proposed formula to solve the problem, Armenian would
withdraw from seven regions of Nagorno-Karabakh. Under the formula,
Armenia has agreed to withdraw from five regions immediately but wants
to negotiate further on the withdrawal from the Kelbece region which
surrounds Karabakh, and the Lachin region, located between Azerbaijan
and Nakhchivan.

If fully agreed to by Yerevan, a declaration about implementation
of this formula would strengthen the hands of Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev on the eve of the elections.

In Armenia there will be no scheduled elections until the beginning
of 2008. From this perspective, the key of Aliyev’s fate seems to be
in the hands of his main enemy, Armenian President Robert Kocharian.

Certainly, if Kocharian could show enough courage to take steps, it
would be Aliyev’s turn to ease Kocharian’s domestic problems before
the elections in Armenia scheduled for the beginning of 2008.

Both Aliyev and the Minsk Group, which was formed under the leadership
of France, Russia and the U.S. within the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) framework, are trying to break up this
“GUUAM code” by pressing upon Armenia.

And the signals coming from Armenia show that Yerevan officials have
begun to understand that any instability in Azerbaijan would directly
affect their country.

There is a saying in Turkish; “The enemy you know is always better
than the one you don’t …”

–Boundary_(ID_IPLR64Wl86BvsaZVYd4cfw)–