Russian analyst predicts ultimate future of former USSR – paper

Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Moscow
17 May 05

The political elite is clearly seriously frightened by events in the
CIS and is continuing to speculate on whether a “colour” revolution
threatens Russia. As a rule the answer is in the negative. However,
yesterday Stanislav Belkovskiy, the director of the National Strategy
Institute, came up with the following prediction: in the next few
years the wave of revolutions in post-Soviet space could encompass
the remaining Asian countries of the region and then spread to Russia.

“Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – revolution is most
likely in these countries,” the political analyst said, including
the states in the top risk category. And the brutal suppression of
the uprising in Uzbekistan’s Andijon will merely be the precursor to
a revolution in the country which will peak in two years’ time. “In
the absence of specific ideologies, Islam will fill the vacuum created
by Karimov,” Belkovskiy said.

He rejected suggestions that revolutions in the countries of the former
USSR were being implanted from outside with the participation of the
United States, although it was the Americans who had seized the status
of regional power from Russia. The coups were being provoked primarily
by internal factors, while external factors were secondary. The
replacement of ruling corporations with the participation of the
masses is taking place for the following reasons: the blocking of
vertical mobility in the regime; the lack of legitimacy of the regime;
the splitting of elites; the lack of a positive image of the future;
the existence of an opposition; the regime’s unpreparedness to use
force; unresolved ethnic and religious problems; the merging of the
bureaucracy with state power. All these conditions, the political
analyst believes, are present to some degree or other in the countries
of post-Soviet space.

As for Russia, which was included by Belkovskiy in the second risk
category along with Azerbaijan, so far a revolutionary scenario
does not threaten it. The Kremlin’s traditional legitimacy, formed
in our country many centuries ago back in the days of the monarchy,
is shoring up the country. But that certainly does not mean that this
state of affairs will remain in the future. In addition, some of the
above symptoms are already manifesting themselves.

In Russia revolution will be the finale to the delegitimization
of the regime as a result of the country’s disintegration. The
most likely territories which could split from the country are the
large national republics and also Siberia. In five years’ time the
Chinese population in Siberia will be such that they will be able to
form their own political forces. “Preventing a revolution in Russia
and preventing Russia’s disintegration is one and the same thing.
Revolution in Russia is possible only if everything collapses,”
Belkovskiy is convinced.

An alternative to revolution in Russia could be a peaceful state “coup”
by which the political analyst means a constitutional transfer of power
within the framework of presidential and parliamentary elections. The
political analyst sees the advent to power of a left-nationalist
coalition as most likely.

Belkovskiy believes that Russia will not be a classic parliamentary
republic because of existing traditions. Consequently, an acceptable
model of presidential power must be created which will stand outside
the economy. And a parliamentary majority government and the people’s
elected representatives themselves must be responsible for the economy.

On the other hand, the political analyst believes that Belarus and
Turkmenistan should be the least afraid of revolutions. However
much the West may call the regimes that have taken shape in these
countries dictatorships, the regimes here are maintained on the basis
of the state leaders’ charisma. But despite their unshakeableness,
[President] Alyaksandr Lukashenka and [President] Saparmyrat Nyyazow
should prepare for internal plots within their own elites – their
closest associates could in fact prove to be potential revolutionaries.