ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN APPEAR TO EDGE CLOSER TO KARABAKH PEACE
Emil Danielyan 5/20/05

Eurasianet Organization
May 20 2005

Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to have moved closer to resolving their
long-running conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, following a face-to-face
meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents.

Officials in both countries remained tight-lipped about details of
the latest round of talks. But it appears Armenian President Robert
Kocharian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev built on
progress made by their foreign ministers over the past year. The two
ministers are now expected to start another series of peace talks
to try to flesh out understandings reportedly reached by Aliyev
and Kocharian.

The Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders spoke for nearly three hours late
on May 15 and early on May 16 on the sidelines of a Council of Europe
summit in Warsaw. “I hope that the negotiations will produce results
and the issues between us will be resolved,” Aliyev told Azerbaijani
journalists afterward.

“The Armenian side finds positive the latest meeting in Warsaw
between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the Armenian
Foreign Ministry said in a statement on May 18. “It was yet another
step forward in the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.”

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov and his Armenian
opposite number Vartan Oskanian have said they were given a mandate
to continue the so-called “Prague process.” The two men held a series
of meetings in the Czech capital last year and in January, reporting
significant progress toward a long-awaited Karabakh settlement. They
both said in April that further headway required the personal
intervention of their presidents.

Russia’s chief Karabakh negotiator, Yuri Merzlyakov, told Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty on May 19 that the two leaders had reached
“a point where they can no longer say general things.” Publicizing
details of their discussions at this juncture would be highly
counterproductive, Merzlyakov said.

But some details have emerged. Speaking on Armenian state television
May 19, Oskanian revealed that the agenda of the negotiations
included four basic “elements” — Karabakh’s status (the main bone
of contention), the liberation of Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani
territories that surround the disputed enclave, return of refugees
and post-conflict security. “We have reached common ground on some
issues and serious disagreements on others. Our differences have been
somewhat bridged on one issue,” he said, adding that it relates to
Karabakh’s future status.

The conflicting parties have reportedly been discussing a gradual
resolution of the conflict, under which a formal determination on
Karabakh’s status would be preceded by the evacuation of Armenian
forces from broad swaths of territory in Azerbaijan. Armenian troops
occupied the Azerbaijani territory during the 1991-1994 war. This
so-called “phased” strategy of conflict resolution has always been
preferred by Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

Official Yerevan and Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian leadership until
recently insisted on a “package” accord that would resolve all
contentious issues at once. But they now seem ready to embrace the
phased formula so long as they get other international guarantees of
continued Armenian control over Karabakh. Armenian Defense Minister
Serge Sarkisian noted recently that this could include a formal pledge
by the international community to hold a referendum of independence
in Karabakh.

“The issue of Karabakh’s status of paramount importance to us,”
stressed Oskanian. “Without having it clarified [beforehand] we are
simply not prepared for serious discussions on other issues … It can
be said that we registered a small movement forward on the [status]
issue, which enables us to tackle other issues in earnest.”

According to Mammadyarov, the Warsaw meeting focused on a timetable
for Armenian withdrawal from all of the occupied Azerbaijani lands,
including the Lachin district that links Armenia proper to Karabakh.
“We are discussing which district should be liberated and when,”
Mammadyarov told Azerbaijan’s ATV channel. “They (the Armenians)
agree that all the districts should be returned.”

The Armenian side denied the claims, with Oskanian saying that Lachin’s
return is “non-negotiable.” He also rejected Aliyev’s offer to grant
Karabakh a “high degree of autonomy.” The Armenians maintain that they
will never agree to a formula that returns Karabakh to Azerbaijani
jurisdiction.

Baku’s position, at least in public, is diametrically opposite. “We
demand the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity,” Aliyev
said in his speech at the Warsaw summit.

The French, Russian and US diplomats leading the Minsk Group of the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe have so far failed
to reconcile these conflicting approaches, despite coming close on
several occasions in the past. An apparent deal hammered out during
talks at Key West in 2001 fell apart after facing considerable domestic
opposition in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. The recent upbeat statements coming from
Baku and Yerevan suggest that chances for Karabakh peace are better
now than at any time since the Key West talks ended.

Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress