Daily sees “great chance” for revolution in Azerbaijan

Zerkalo, Baku
20 May 05

The refusal by the Azerbaijani authorities to sanction a demonstration
by the opposition on 21 May is “the odd one out” in a series of recent
moves towards rapprochement between the two sides, the Azerbaijani
newspaper Zerkalo has said. It added that Azerbaijan, which is to
hold parliamentary elections later this year, had a “great chance”
of emulating Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan where revolutions had
taken place soon after presidential or parliamentary elections. The
paper said further that Azerbaijan was becoming not only a thorn in
the side of the USA over its recent military agreement with Iran, but
also in the side of Russia as any revolution in Azerbaijan and Belarus
would complete the circle of pro-Western republics around the European
part of Russia. The following is an excerpt from Q. Quluzada’s and
R. Mirqadirov’s report by Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo on 20 May
headlined “Troy will be no more”

On the evening of 17 May, the US president said he considered it
necessary to continue the change of regimes in post-Soviet republics.

[Passage omitted: details of President Bush’s address]

And finally Azerbaijan. On 21 May, the Azerbaijani opposition is going
to stage a demonstration. The authorities have not sanctioned the
protest action and warned that the protesters will be dispersed. This,
however, hasn’t made the opposition give up its plans. We are likely
to witness a tough, if not cruel, stand-off. And representatives
of the world’s leading media outlets are expected to converge on
Baku on 25 May to witness the launch of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline. And they are likely to speak about our oil through the
prism of an aggressive pre-election struggle [in Azerbaijan].

If the rally is put down in the October 2003 [post-election clashes]
style, the world media will lead their news bulletins with images
of the “black gold” and “bloodshed” in Azerbaijan. To steer clear
of such a scenario, the Azerbaijani authorities, which never miss an
opportunity to say how insignificant the opposition is, should have
sanctioned the rally. Or, if they have already refused to do so,
they shouldn’t beat up protesters too much [when the rally goes ahead].

Obviously, the opposition will be glad to remind the West of itself and
show its strength. America does not create revolutionary movements,
but it can encourage serious and real processes. The latest moves
of the Azerbaijani authorities have shown that they are ready for
change. These include amnesty decrees, a presidential decree on
improving election practices and the start of a dialogue with the
opposition. But the refusal to sanction the rally is clearly the odd
one out.

Perhaps this is a manifestation of the much talked about struggle
between reformist and conservative forces in power. It is said
that the former want to play by new rules, while the latter prefer
to act the way they are used to. The country is in the run-up to
[parliamentary] elections [in November] and the fate of Azerbaijan,
and perhaps the next destination of US special purpose troops, will
depend on how flexible the Azerbaijani authorities are and if they
are ready for democratic and fair elections.

Azerbaijan has a great chance of joining Georgia, Ukraine and
Kyrgyzstan. There are several reasons for that.

First, our American friends usually act according to a certain
pattern. In such cases they don’t alter the scenarios which have been
successfully applied in other countries “coveting democracy”. Let’s
recall that all “velvet revolutions” in the said countries took place
hard on the heels of presidential or parliamentary elections. We
will have our parliamentary elections, too. Frankly speaking, it
would be correct to describe them as the “so-called parliamentary
elections”. We have to acknowledge that while one side is preparing
for a “velvet revolution”, the other is preparing to put it down.

Second, Zerkalo has already reported, quoting informed sources, that
our American friends are gradually losing faith in the ability of
the ruling elite to carry out the necessary reforms and adhere to a
clear-cut foreign political course. Washington was not particularly
impressed, to put it mildly, with some of Baku’s recent military and
diplomatic steps, especially the signing of a military cooperation
agreement with Iran. The USA considers Iran as one of the main sponsors
of international, especially Islamic, terrorism.

It is no secret that Washington intends to use Azerbaijani territory as
a foothold in case of strikes on Iran. And at this “opportune” moment
Azerbaijan goes ahead and signs the military treaty with Iran. The
USA doesn’t forgive such “follies”, not even to its strategic allies.

Third, it must be remembered that the possible “velvet resolutions” in
Belarus and Azerbaijan would complete the formation of a pro-Western
“democratic belt” around the European part of Russia. As a matter
of fact, Armenia will be left with no choice because under such
circumstances it will be practically impossible for Russia to keep its
completely isolated “outpost” in the South Caucasus alive. And then
it won’t be difficult for Washington to put Yerevan on the right path.

[Passage omitted: other details of the Bush address]