Asia Times Online, Hong Kong
May 19 2005

Lebanon and its message
By Rabbi Moshe Reiss

Lebanon’s elections are scheduled to start on May 29, and will
continue for the following three Sundays.

Lebanon is estimated to be 95% Arab. In the last election, in 2000,
50% of the electorate voted for Christian parties. How much of the
population is Muslim and how much is Christian is unknown. Estimates
range from slightly more Christians than Muslims, to 2-1 favoring
Muslims. The 450,000 Palestinians in Lebanon are not counted as they
have no rights and are forbidden to hold citizenship. The last census
was taken in 1932.

Lebanese are believed to originate from the ancient Phoenicians. King
Solomon, in building the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem approximately
3,000 years ago, purchased timber from Lebanon, according to the
Bible (1 Kings 5:30-31).

Later came the Armenians, who spoke Aramaic, the language of Jesus.
The Armenians claim to be the first Gentile group to convert as a
result of Constantine’s conversion in the fourth century; they are
still called the Malkites. The word is Semitic and its Hebrew root is
the word for king. The Hebrew name for Lebanon is Laban, which also
means “white”. Laban was Jacob’s father-in-law for both of his wives
(Leah and Rachel), and he is at times called the Armenian.

More than twice as many Lebanese (7 million) are estimated to live in
Brazil as live in Lebanon; the number living in the United States (3
million) is approximately equal to the number living in Lebanon. Most
of those living abroad are considered to be exiled Christians. More
than 50% of the schools in Lebanon use French as the vernacular
language. The codes of the legal system were originally written in
French and only translated into Arabic in 1983; most lawyers in court
still cite the original French version of the law. Inter-confessional
marriages are not sanctioned by the clerics and take place in Cyprus,
after which they are recognized by the government. The same is true
in Israel.

National holidays include Christian and Islamic New Year’s Day,
Eastern Christian and Western Christian Good Friday, Easter and
Christmas, Ascension Day, All Saints Day, St Marouns Day, Eid
al-Fiter (end of Ramadan), Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice),
Ashoura Day, Eid al-Mawled (the Prophet’s Birthday), Al-Isra’
Wal-Mi’raj, and, of course, Independence Day.

Perhaps the most-known Arab literary figure, Gibran Khalil Gibran,
author of The Prophet, was Lebanese.

There are 18 religious and confessional communities in Lebanon. Each
group identifies itself first by its ethnic identity and second as
Lebanese. Sectarianism is the basis of the Lebanese state. Despite
this, Lebanon is the only Arab state that has had a democratic
history, when Syria has not interfered. The president and prime
minister have changed by election, not by the bullet. Religious
freedom is constitutionally guaranteed. The president is
constitutionally a Maronite Christian, the premier a Sunni, the
Speaker of the House a Shi’ite and the deputy Speaker a Druze. The
current parliament of 128 members is composed of members from the
following groups: 34 Maronite Christians, 27 Sunnis, 27 Shi’ite (11
Hezbollah, four Amal, an unknown number associated with the Lebanese
Ayatollah Mohammad Fadlallah), 14 Greek Orthodox, eight Catholic
Orthodox, eight Druze, and the remaining 10 from several smaller
parties.

So what will the composition of the parliament be after the May 29
elections? (The French will vote on the European Union constitution
that same day.) The assassination of former premier Rafik Hariri has
drastically changed political dynamics in Lebanon. Lebanon was once
treated by Syria as its surrogate, but its armed forces now have
left. What powers Syria still has are unclear.

Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most important political faction, demonstrated
its power in March by having half a million persons march in Martyrs’
Square, the center of Beirut (Hezbollah’s territory is southern
Beirut). At the demonstrations, Hezbollah flew the Lebanese national
flag, not its own flag; that was presumably very significant as to
its intentions (see Hezbollah enters the fray, March 10, 2005). The
next week the opposition held its own large demonstration. Young
people were the strength of this and continuing protests; they
represent 20% of the population and have never voted before. Will
they follow their fathers in the upcoming elections?

Hezbollah has improved its electoral power in municipal elections in
the past two years. Will it receive more parliamentary seats than it
has at present? If so, at whose expense? Perhaps Amal’s or other
Shi’ite parties, though not likely other communal groups.

The Lebanese opposition to Syria expects to win the elections. Who is
this opposition to the former pro-Syrian community: the Maronite
Christians, the Greek and Catholic Christians and the Sunnis. Will
the Christian groups combine with the Sunnis to form the next
coalition government?

The election law was allegedly written by pro-Syrian legislators and
approved by pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud. The League of Maronite
Christian Bishops has already complained that the election is rigged,
before it has even begun. Saad Hariri, son of the assassinated former
premier, with no political experience, has announced he will form his
own political party.

General Michel Aoun, a Maronite leader and former prime minister,
left Lebanon 15 years ago and lived in exile in France. He was
opposed to the Syrian occupation and returned on May 7 (see Michel
Aoun comes home to roost, May 13). His old friends and enemies are
still in Lebanon. He has met with Hezbollah leaders and is already
being talked about as the next president. His friends will no doubt
soon compare him to Charles de Gaulle, his enemies to Napoleon.

‘Not a nation, but a message’
A key to understanding Lebanon is the civil war that began on April
13, 1975, between the Lebanese Christians and the Lebanese Muslims
allied with the Palestinians. The Israeli invasion in 1982 (a mistake
in this writer’s opinion) was the result of this civil war. Many
Lebanese argue that the 15-year war was caused by the Palestinians,
particularly their leader Yassar Arafat, who had been expelled by the
Jordanians for attempting to cause a civil war there. The war began
to end (despite continuing for another eight years) when Arafat was
expelled from Lebanon in 1982. None of Lebanon’s confessional groups
favors giving rights to the Palestinian refugees. Permanent
settlement by the Palestinians is forbidden by the Lebanese
constitution. The Palestinians are known to be militarized within
their refugee camps. They are also surrounded by Lebanese armed
forces. They are considered by nationalist Lebanese as “foreign
forces” under UN Resolution 1599 and are therefore required to disarm
and/or leave Lebanon. Recently, President Lahoud stated, “All the
Lebanese people agree that the permanent settlement of the
Palestinian refugees is a time bomb.”

The Taif Accord of 1989, signed by the various communal
representatives, can be considered the end of the war. But Lebanon
remains in a precarious position. The late pope John Paul II said,
Lebanon was “not a nation, but a message” of Christian-Muslim
coexistence, one that obviously Europe could learn from. Maronite
intellectual Georges Naccache said in French: “Two negations do not
make a nation.”

The United Nations has demanded that Hezbollah (which has been called
a state within a state) disarm. Hezbollah has been supported by money
and arms from Islamic Iran and secular Syria for many years. The
Bekaa Valley training camps run by Iran have trained Hezbollah and
other terrorists for jihadi operations. Since April of this year
Hezbollah has been sending air drones over Israeli territory. The
questions is, how will Israel react?

Maronite leader and Lebanese defense minister, Abdel-Rahim Morad, has
said the Lebanese army cannot fill the vacuum the Syrian soldiers
have left behind. He was suggesting that Hezbollah could fill that
space. He did not say so explicitly, but it is clear from his remarks
that the most effective Lebanese military force is that of Hezbollah.
He did not mention who would fill the vacuum on the southern border
with Israel if Hezbollah is disarmed. But the Druze leader Walid
Jumblatt said disarming Hezbollah is not in the cards – though he had
said two weeks earlier that Hezbollah ought to be disarmed. Even the
EU has designated Hezbollah as a terrorist organization.

What changed Jumblatt’s mind? One story is that the Shi’ite
demonstrators caricatured him in signs as an “Orthodox Rabbi”; he
felt after Hariri’s death, his end was coming. His father, Kamal, was
murdered after opposing Syrian forces in Lebanon. On the other hand,
a Lebanese Christian opposition figure stated, “Jumblatt’s head has
gotten swollen. Everyone is courting him. He was in Saudi Arabia,
where he apparently got money, he is meeting with world figures, he
was in Egypt and met with [President Hosni] Mubarak. Suddenly this
man has become, in his own eyes, an omnipotent leader – according to
his will, the opposition will either exist or collapse. Suddenly he
is [Hezbollah chief] Hassan Nasrallah’s friend.” Both comments are
from biased parties.

On March 16, Nasrallah said, “Disarming the resistance will be up for
discussion, and we expect our partners [the opposition] to offer us
alternatives to defend the country and people.” From whom? Nasrallah
has recently threatened the United States. The question had been
asked in Arabic newspapers whether Nasrallah has “lost his mind”
(Kuwaiti Daily, April).

Will Hezbollah attempt to control Lebanon politically? Will Nasrallah
have a surrogate run for Speaker of the parliament? Or alternatively,
will he use the weapons, including missiles he has from Iran, to
become the strongman of the country? Could the latter cause another
civil war?

Looking at Lebanon’s surrogate parent
One cannot discuss Lebanon without reference to Syria, its “surrogate
parent”; however the subject has already been discussed to the
saturation point (see The twists and turns of ‘Syria first’, March
25). Syria claims Lebanon is part of Greater Syria. As in Egypt,
where there is no map that shows a State of Israel in Syria, the
State of Lebanon is not to be found on maps, just Greater Syria.

Tripoli, the second-largest city in Lebanon, has long been in
American history. In 1801 the US attacked Tripoli and had a four-year
war. For that victory Tripoli stars in the US Marine Hymn adjacent to
the Halls of Montezuma. The American University of Beirut has long
been known as the best university in the Middle East.

President George W Bush has not had a policy toward Syria, other than
calling it a “rogue state”, a home for terrorists, and even accusing
it of having weapons of mass destruction. There is a Syria
Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003,
which imposes strict sanctions against the Syrian government. And the
US is now considering imposing sanctions on Syria’s financial sector
under the Patriot Act. Since 1979 Syria has been designated as a
state sponsor of terrorism by the US. But after 25 years, this
approach has not had any affect on Syrian behavior or strategic and
tactical calculations.

Is Bush now inching toward a policy? Is it “regime change”? (It would
be easier than “regime change” in Iran, another possible candidate.)
Whatever the case, the US is likely to continue its demands that
Syria democratize its government as this dovetails with the Bush
administration’s overall policy of transforming the authoritarian
states of the Middle East into democracies.

Meanwhile, the Lebanon-Syria conflict has managed to reconcile the
dispute between the US and France, which have had problems since
shortly after September 11, 2001. Both countries have agreed to pass
UN resolution 1599 demanding Syria’s withdrawal from Lebanon and
Hezbollah’s disarmament.

Another relevant party in any discussion of Lebanon and its surrogate
parent, Syria, is Israel. According to Flynt Leverett, a former US
diplomat and author of a recent book, Inheriting Syria, Washington
told Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel not to agree to open a
negotiating front with Syria over the future status of the Golan
Heights. Assad is willing – perhaps even anxious, according to
Leverett – to open negotiations on that issue. The US is in no mood
to offer any opportunity to Syria whereby it would gain any momentum
stemming from a potential breakthrough on the Golan Heights, which
has been under Israeli occupation since 1967.

Israel’s policy was once invasion. That failed. The connection
between the Israelis and the Christian Lebanese who cooperated in
that war is that both are considered outlaws in the Muslim heartland.

Israel could defuse Hezbollah by returning a small enclave known as
Sheba Farms (200 square kilometers), which even the not-Israeli
friendly UN agrees belongs to Syria and therefore is part of a
Syria-Israel peace process (if one existed). However, Hezbollah
claims Sheba Farms belongs to Lebanon; it is not clear what the
Lebanese government’s position is. Hezbollah claims it retains its
arms to free this farmland. Given the Gaza disengagement, Israel is
highly unlikely to give up Sheba Farms despite its obvious advantage.

If Hezbollah decides to use its military power to suicide bomb
Israelis or attack them with rockets or even missiles that they have
from Iran, will Israel attack from the air and bomb Beirut or an
electric grid or water dam? If the anti-Syrian opposition in Lebanon
take control of a new government, can they negotiate with Israel?
What would Syria do? Israel signed a peace treaty with Lebanon in
1983 during the civil war and Israeli occupation; Syria canceled it.

Will Syrian President Bashar Assad still have the power after the
election to control certain red-line events in Lebanon? Yes.

Rabbi Moshe Reiss is a graduate of Oxford University and was
assistant rabbi at Yale University. He was the first rabbi invited to
teach in the Department of Theology at the Catholic University of
Leuven, Belgium (founded 1425), and has lectured in various
countries. He has posted three books on his website on Judaism,
Christianity and Islam. His book on Judaism is being published by
sections in the Jewish Bible Quarterly. He now lives in Israel.