NEWS OF PROGRESS ON KARABAKH TALKS GETS CAUTIOUS RECEPTION IN ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN
Samvel Matirosyan and Alman Mir Ismail 5/20/05

Eurasianet Organization
May 20 2005

While officials in Armenia and Azerbaijan have expressed guarded
optimism about the possibility of a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement,
significant obstacles remain in place that could block any potential
deal.

Various reports suggested that the May 15-16 meeting between Armenian
President Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev moved
the search for Karabakh peace forward. At the same time, there are
few details on the substance of the discussions available, as the
participants have generally declined to elaborate on the talks.

Much of the reaction in Armenian and Azerbaijani media has focused
on Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov’s assertion that
Armenia agreed to a “step-by-step” peace formula, under which Armenian
forces would withdraw from seven regions of Azerbaijani territory that
surround Karabakh. [For additional information see the accompanying
EurasiaNet story].

In the days leading up to the Kocharian-Aliyev meeting in Warsaw,
Azerbaijani media considered the Armenian withdrawal to be a foregone
conclusion. “The Armenians Have Given Their Consent: The Seven Occupied
Regions Will Be Liberated,” read a headline in the Azerbaijani daily
Sharg on May 13.

An underlying assumption held by some Azerbaijani analysts seemed
to be that Armenia had no choice but to accede to Azerbaijani
demand for a step-by-step formula. “With the near completion of
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
gas pipeline, along with the start of construction on a
Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku railroad and the launch of a North-South
transport corridor, the regional isolation of Armenia would seem
inevitable [without a Karabakh agreement],” television reporter Ganira
Pashayeva said in a commentary broadcast by the Azerbaijani station
ANS on May 15.

On May 18, Armenian Foreign Ministry spokesman Gamlet Gasparian
adamantly denied that Armenian forces would be moving out of the
occupied territories. He called reports of a promised withdrawal
to be “absolutely contrary to the facts,” and “wide of the mark,”
according to various Armenian media reports.

Some Armenian politicians and experts believe that domestic
political factors in Azerbaijan were pushing Azerbaijani officials
to misrepresent the issues discussed in Warsaw. A widely held view
in Yerevan is that Aliyev’s administration is feeling pressure from
the country’s opposition parties. With Azerbaijan scheduled to hold
parliamentary elections later this year, members of the Aliyev team
are anxious to score a political victory ahead of the election,
Armenian observers believe.

Galust Sahakian, the legislative leader of the Republican Party, the
largest faction in the Armenian parliament, told the A1+ television
station: “Allegations concerning the [Armenian occupied] territories
are connected with the parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan.”
Sahakian went on to suggest that some forecasts circulating in
Yerevan indicate that the Azerbaijani election could produce a
“change of power.”

Many political analysts believe Kocharian also has little room
for political maneuver. Any perception that Kocharian was making
concessions to Azerbaijan could upset a delicate political balance
in Yerevan, providing opposition parties with fresh ammunition to
damage the president’s domestic political position.

Recent polling data indicates sharp divisions within Armenian society
on the Karabakh issue. According to a poll conducted by the Armenian
Center for National and International Studies in April, 50 percent
of Armenia’s population believes that concessions to Azerbaijan are
needed to produce a Karabakh settlement. Meanwhile, 37.7 percent is
categorically against any compromises. The remainder does not have a
strong opinion on the issue. At the same time, almost all Armenians
polled believe that Karabakh must remain outside of Baku’s control.

Some Armenian media outlets have suggested that the latest round of
Kocharian-Aliyev talks made little headway in the search for lasting
peace in Karabakh. “Although the results of the meeting between Robert
Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev, which took place May 15 in Warsaw, were
kept secret, everything is clear: they failed,” said a commentary
published by the Armenian newspaper Aravot on May 17.

A significant portion of the Azerbaijani population also remains
skeptical that peace in Karabakh may be within reach. “They
[governments] give these promises for many years, but no results. I
don’t believe that anything will be achieved any time soon,” said
Akif Rahmanov, 58 year old engineer.

Editor’s Note: Samvel Martirosyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst. Alman Mir Ismail is a pseudonym for a Baku-based
writer.