Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
May 20, 2005, Friday
MINISTERIAL CANARD
SOURCE: Novye Izvestia, May 18, 2005, pp. 1, 4
by Mekhman Gafarly
OFFICIAL BAKU MAINTAINS THAT ARMENIA WILL SECEDE 7 OCCUPIED DISTRICTS
Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mamedjarov made a sensational
statement on Monday. Commenting on the outcome of a meeting between
presidents Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Robert Kocharjan (Armenia), in
the course of the Council of Europe summit in Warsaw on May 15, he said
that “Armenia is ready to return 7 occupied districts to Azerbaijan.”
Mamedjarov spoke of Yerevan’s readiness on the air of Azerbaijani ATV
channel. He said that the Armenians had decided to make the concession
and were now thinking about when because “solution to the problem will
take a lot of time.” The minister ascribed the delay to the necessity
to settle the matters of refugees, restoration of communications,
sweep the territories of landmines, etc. Speaking of the format of the
forthcoming talks, Mamedjarov pointed out that Azerbaijan was ready
for negotiations on all levels for the sake of a successful solution
to the problem. He said nevertheless that Azerbaijan insisted on
complete restoration of its territorial integrity and that included
withdrawal of the Armenian army from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Yerevan took Mamedjarov’s statement with a grain of salt. Press
secretary of the Armenian Foreign Ministry said yesterday that he had
not heard anything about any such agreements. Sources in the Embassy
of Armenia in Moscow declined comments altogether.
In the meantime, representatives of the Azerbaijani opposition claim
that Mamedjarov’s “sensational” statement is aimed first and foremost
for the population of the country. Aliyev needs people’s support
on the eve of the parliamentary election slated for November. The
opposition already accuses his regime of the inability to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem and calls for restoration of territorial
integrity of the country by sheer strength of arms.
In the Armenian-Azerbaijani war in the early 1990’s Yerevan ended
up controlling Nagorno-Karabakh itself and seven adjacent districts
of Azerbaijan.
Almost 1,000,000 Azerbaijanis became refugees, living in tent camps.
The opposition uses them in its political actions and views refugees
as its potential electorate.
According to the opposition, Aliyev’s inner circle plans to renew
hostilities over Nagorno-Karabakh in case the situation deteriorates
after the parliamentary election. In an attempt to distract the
population from anti-presidential actions, the national army of
Azerbaijan may try to liberate the seven occupied districts. On
the other hand, official Baku will go for it only with silent
consent from the United States, Russia, and Armenia itself (which
is extremely unlikely of course). There are rumors in Baku nowadays
that Washington and Moscow have already given their consent to this
turn of events. These capitals are allegedly persuading Yerevan not
to support Nagorno-Karabakh separatists in a new war. The new war
will not affect Nagorno-Karabakh itself. There is the hypothesis
that when official Yerevan has been persuaded to let it go, Moscow
and Washington will organize a show – liberation of several districts
of Azerbaijan from the Armenian troops. The show will be followed by
lengthy and fruitless negotiations between the warring sides again.
Moscow and even Washington now are worried by the prospect of
solidification of Turkey’s positions in Azerbaijan. Pro-Turkish Musavat
financed by Turkish business is the main force of the opposition
in Azerbaijan that will surely ascend to state power were Aliyev
dethroned. Musavat leader, Isa Gambar has already promised official
Baku a revolution if it tampered with the outcome of the parliamentary
election. The government of Turkey headed by Tajip Regep Erdogan,
leader of the moderate Islamists, is closely interacting with Iran. He
is closer to Europe than to the United States. Since Washington may
use the territory of Azerbaijan in a conflict with Tehran, Turkish
clout with this republic is the last thing the Americans want. As for
Moscow, it fears that pro-Turkish bias in the policy of Azerbaijan
will provoke a new wave of separatism in the Caucasus.
Chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group (Foreign Minister of Russia Sergei
Lavrov, Foreign Minister of France Michel Barnier, and US Ambassador
Stephen Mann) released a joint statement on the outcome of the
meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian president in Warsaw, yesterday.
According to the document, Aliyev and Kocharjan “confirmed their
willingness to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh problem by negotiations.”
Translated by A. Ignatkin