Opinion: Is Azerbaijan next for a revolution?
Alexei Makarkin

Middle East Times

UPI
May 17, 2005

MOSCOW — Four presidents attended an April session of the GUUAM
regional organization of Georgia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Azerbaijan
and Moldova in the Moldovan capital, Chisinau. Uzbek President Islam
Karimov ignored it because his country was preparing to withdraw
from the organization. The news was made public officially on May 5,
changing GUUAM into GUAM.

Presidents Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine and Mikhail Saakashvili of
Georgia, who did attend the summit, were brought to power by so-called
“color” revolutions – the “Orange” revolution in Ukraine and the
“Roses” revolution in Georgia. President Vladimir Voronin of Moldova
prevented a revolution in his country by becoming a sharper critic
of Russia than the revolutionaries.

The only exception was Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. He went to Chisinau
but does not want this to affect his country’s relations with Russia
and also hopes to prevent a color revolution at home.

Color revolutions are timed for elections, as the methods behind
them are based on using public protests against the real or imaginary
falsification of election results. Observers from the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe have criticized all the elections
held in Azerbaijan, which Aliyev’s opponents can use as an additional
argument. This April the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe Monitoring Committee once again criticized Baku for failing to
ensure the freedom of speech and meeting, which are vital conditions
for free and fair elections.

The next parliamentary elections will be held in Azerbaijan this
November. The opposition is pinning its hopes on them, thinking
Aliyev’s regime will be weaker than his father’s.

Three political forces that are opposing Aliyev’s regime – Musavat,
the People’s Front and the Democratic Party – have created a coalition
that hopes to win the elections. Musavat and the Democratic Party are
led by the former parliament speakers, Isa Gambar and Rasul Guliyev,
who now live in the United States. The leader of the People’s Front
is Ali Kerimli, a comrade of the late president Abulfaz Elchibei.

In April the regional activists of these parties met with US Ambassador
Reno Harnish, which provoked great displeasure of the political forces
that are loyal to the current authorities.

There is one more opposition bloc, New Policy, which consists of
prominent figures, including the first president of independent
Azerbaijan, Ayaz Mutalibov, who now lives in Moscow, Lala Shovket
Gadzhiyeva, the leader of the National Unity Movement, Etibar Mamedov,
former head of the National Independence Party and former premier Ali
Masimov. According to Gadzhiyeva, “If large-scale falsifications are
registered during the parliament election, there will be a revolution.”

The so-called Gongadze case greatly helped to discredit Leonid
Kuchma in Ukraine. Azerbaijan could explode because of the killing
of opposition journalist Elmar Guseinov.

What do the Azerbaijan authorities hope to achieve? They hope
Azerbaijan’s participation in GUAM will prevent the export of a
revolution into the country. Georgian activists helped Ukrainians last
year and Ukrainians are now helping Belarussians. Aliyev is acting
as a political ally of Yushchenko and Saakashvili, which makes him
“untouchable” to the activists of color revolutions.

Second, GUAM membership is complemented with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline project, which the West went to great lengths to
promote. The project is to be commissioned on May 25 in the presence of
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. By the end of the year, when
the parliamentary election is due in Azerbaijan, the first oil tanker
will depart from Ceyhan. Therefore, Baku’s leaders do not believe that
the West will rock the boat in such a strategic country as Azerbaijan.

Third, Azerbaijan is involved in the US-Iran confrontation. The April
12 visit of Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld to Baku is indicative in
this context. There were rumors before the visit that a US military
base might be established in the country. They have been refuted so
far, which is not surprising, as the truth may sour Baku’s relations
with Tehran and Moscow, but this does not mean that the base may not
appear some time in the future.

It is notable that Robert Simons, a special representative of the
NATO secretary-general to the Caucasus and Central Asian countries,
has announced that though the bloc’s leaders have not approved the
deployment of troops in the South Caucasus for the protection of
the oil pipeline and other economic facilities, the issue may be
discussed later.

The Americans are energetically cooperating with Azerbaijan’s security
services. Foreign minister Elmar Mamedyarov said: They “are helping
us fulfil several very interesting and important security programs”.

Will this guarantee peace and tranquility in Azerbaijan? Hardly. The
problem is that not everything in color revolutions depends on the
external or economic factors. Much depends on the effectiveness
of the ruling regime and the ability of the opposition to use the
available resources.

If the regime preserves its own stability and becomes the main factor
of stability in the country, the revolutionaries will have to wait
for another chance. But if the regime becomes eroded the opposition
may use this situation to claim the role of a guarantor of stability,
just like it did in Georgia.