THE WARSAW MEETING OF THE PRESIDENTS OF AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA MAY FAIL

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
May 16, 2005, Monday

The meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in Warsaw is
on the verge of failure. Some analysts say that the crisis was caused
by President Ilkham Aliyev’s unwillingness to hold negotiations with
Armenian President Robert Kocharyan at the CIS summit in Moscow.
(…) In these circumstances it’s easy to guess that Yerevan may
refuse to hold the meeting in Warsaw. Armenian Foreign Minister
Vardan Oskanyan indirectly confirmed this. He said on Tuesday, “I
cannot promise that the meeting (of the presidents) will take place.”

However, the majority of Azerbaijanian experts think that the Council
of Europe will force Ilkham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan to hold
negotiations in Warsaw. The secretary-general of this organization
recently stated that if one of the parties refuses to hold negotiations
the CE will have to use strict measures. It should be noted that the
Minsk OSCE group has prepared three plans of peaceful settlement
of the conflict. The first plan is aimed at releasing territory
seized by Armenia, returning refugees and determining the status of
Nagorny Karabakh. The second plan is aimed at establishing transport
communications and determining the status of Karabakh. The third
plan is a combination of the first and second plans. In the meantime,
Baku and Yerevan are not satisfied with these plans.

Independent observers state that this is the main reason why the
parties seek to suspend negotiations.

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 12, 2005, p. 5

Translated by Alexander Dubovoi