Analysts say Azeri pipeline to become region’s major oil export route

Trend news agency
23 May 05

BAKU

“The launch of the Azerbaijani section of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline is an event the strategic importance of which goes
far beyond the boundaries of our region,” the former state adviser on
foreign political issues, Vafa Quluzada, has told Trend.

He is sure that this pipeline will transport not only Azerbaijani, but
also Kazakh, Turkmen and even Russian oil in the future because Turkey
will soon completely block the passage of oil tankers through the
Bosporus for environmental reasons.

“The launch of the BTC will bring Azerbaijan huge revenue. However, at
the same time the Azerbaijani government has to learn how to
distribute this windfall evenly and fairly among Azerbaijani
citizens,” he said.

The political expert believes that the commissioning of the
Azerbaijani section of the oil pipeline will precondition broader US
expansion into the Caucasus.

“This event carries a special geopolitical and geostrategic importance
for the region and opens up another way for the USA to master the
Caucasus,” he said.

As for the opinion of some experts that the commissioning of the BTC
might mean that Azerbaijan is giving up hope for the return of its
territories currently under Armenian occupation, Quluzada said the
time for a military solution to the problem had been missed long ago.

“The military option was possible in 1994. This is why a negotiated
settlement will be found. And this settlement will be fair by all
means because the USA is not interested in the existence of a
smouldering conflict in this region,” Quluzada said.

“The launch of the BTC will put to shame those who thought that this
project was a politically motivated utopia,” another political expert,
Rasim Musabayov, has told Trend. He said this project is economically
and technically viable.

“Revenue from the implementation of the project will lay the
foundations for modernizing the country,” he said. Also, the
commissioning of the pipeline will boost the West’s attention and
interest in this region.

Musabayov described as an exaggeration the suggestions that Azerbaijan
was losing the chance of solving the Karabakh issue militarily.

“The BTC will operate, but it would be wrong to speak so categorically
about this. We could just as well say that Azerbaijan has dissolved
its armed forces. But this is impossible,” the expert said.

Of course, the BTC will compel the world’s leading countries involved
with the project, such as the USA and Britain, as well as European
countries interested in the project as consumers of oil, to ensure
that there is no threat to the pipeline, Musabayov acknowledged. But
in that case they will have to step up their efforts so that the
conflict is resolved as soon as possible, he said.

The former Azerbaijani foreign minister, Tofiq Zulfuqarov, also
considers the launch of the BTC as a landmark event.

“This event has special importance for Azerbaijan and its future. By
starting to operate the pipeline, Azerbaijan will resolve the problem
of a secure and effective delivery of its oil to world markets for
many years to come,” he said.

In his opinion, the BTC will soon turn into a major route which will
transport oil from the entire Caspian region.