Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
May 24, 2005, Tuesday
AZERBAIJAN BECOMES AN OBSTACLE
SOURCE: Kommersant, May 24, 2005, p. 10
by Vladimir Novikov, Gennadi Sysoev
Another round of Russian-Georgian negotiations on withdrawing Russian
military bases from Georgia has opened in Tbilisi. Deputy Foreign
Minister Merab Antadze heads the Georgian delegation; special envoy
Igor Savolsky heads the Russian delegation.
The talks are shrouded in secrecy. Foreign Minister Salome
Zurabishvili even warned that comments would only be made after the
meeting. According to our sources, the chances of success are fairly
high. Moscow and Tbilisi have certainly bridged the gap in dealing
with the problem which had defeated them for years.
Georgia wants the Batumi base withdrawn by March 2008, and the
Akhalkalaki base (plus all heavy military hardware) withdrawn by July
1, 2007. Russia is prepared leave Batumi by the end of 2008 and leave
Akhalkalaki by late 2007. In other words, the difference is not
substantial – a fact acknowledged yesterday even by Nino
Burdzhanadze, speaker of the Georgian parliament. “We may find the
Russian proposals on dates and terms acceptable,” she said. “It
doesn’t really matter if the bases are out before January 1, 2008, or
in May 2008.”
The status of the peacekeeping base in Gudauta (Abkhazia) remains
undecided as yet. Also undecided are questions of procedures for
withdrawing facilities, military hardware, and personnel from
Tbilisi, Akhalkalaki, and Batumi; the status and functions of the
joint counter-terrorism center to be established simultaneously with
the withdrawal; and the legal form to be taken by Georgia’s
commitment not to host military contingents from any other countries
after the Russian withdrawal.
Actually, another stumbling block could be the position of
Azerbaijan, which only came to light recently as an issue that could
impact the future Russian-Georgian agreement. Chief of the General
Staff Yuri Baluyevsky confirmed Baku’s worst fears last week. He said
that some of the military hardware from the withdrawn bases in
Georgia would be transferred to a military base in Gyumri, Armenia.
“This would cut the withdrawal time to four years. That’s a measure
we are forced to take, since new infrastructure cannot be set up in
the time available,” Baluyevsky explained.
This is precisely what has unnerved the government of Azerbaijan –
especially since Moscow, when reaching agreement with Armenian
President Robert Kocharjan about the movement of troops, conveniently
“forgot” to mention the matter to President Ilham Aliyev of
Azerbaijan.
The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan sent a note to the Russian Embassy
in Baku yesterday, expressing “concern over statements made by some
Russian political and military leaders about the possibility of
transfering some property and military hardware from Russian military
bases in Georgia into Armenia.” The government of Azerbaijan
maintains that “this scenario would be inconsistent with regional
peace and security interests. It would only exacerbate tension in the
already-problematic process of resolving the Azerbaijan-Armenia
conflict.”
Trying to allay Baku’s fears at least partially, Savolsky said
yesterday that most military hardware in question would be returned
to Russia. Still, it doesn’t seem that Azerbaijan (and the West)
would tolerate any reinforcement of the Russian army group in
Armenia. The government of Azerbaijan is essentially linking the
future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations with the matter of Russia’s
withdrawal from Gudauta. This greatly restricts Moscow’s room for
maneuver.
Translated by A. Ignatkin