Eurasianet Organization
May 24 2005

GEORGIA, RUSSIA INCH CLOSE TO TROOP WITHDRAWAL ACCORD
Photos by Alexander Klimchuk: 5/24/05

The stop-start negotiations over the Russian withdrawal from two
military bases on Georgian territory may be finally drawing to a
close. Both sides have reported “serious progress” during the latest
round of talks, as Moscow signaled a willingness to take its troops
out of Georgia in 2008.

Georgian and Russian negotiators came close to striking a deal in
early May, but the agreement fell apart over disagreement on a
precise withdrawal timetable. Georgian leaders wanted the two Russian
bases – in Batumi and Akhalkalaki – to be vacated by the end of 2007.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov scuttled the deal, saying more
time was needed to find new accommodations for departing Russian
troops. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Speaking after a negotiating round on May 23, Georgian Foreign
Minister Salome Zourabichvili declared that the two sides had
clarified “secondary questions,” and would concentrate on the
withdrawal timetable issue when talks resumed May 24. Russian special
envoy Igor Savolsky said Moscow is amenable to a step-by-step
withdrawal, in which the last Russian forces would leave Georgia at
some point in 2008. Georgian leaders previously resisted a 2008
deadline, citing the fact that it is also an election year in
Georgia. However, it now appears that Tbilisi will give serious
consideration to the Russian proposal.

“Russian proposals concerning the timetable and regime for the
removal of bases and the setting up of an anti-terrorist center may
be acceptable for us. … Whether the bases leave by January 1, 2008,
or in May that year is not that important,” the Kavkasia Press news
agency quoted Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze as saying.

Part of the cost of getting Russian troops to leave, as Burjanadze
indicated, may be the establishment of a joint anti-terrorism center,
which would enable Russia to maintain a toe-hold in Georgia. Some
Georgian opposition politicians, including New Rights Party leader
David Gamkrelidze, warned that Russia would use such an entity to
continue exerting geopolitical influence over Georgia.

“We are making a serious mistake by allowing [Moscow] to replace its
bases in Georgia with a joint anti-terrorist center. As a result, we
will accept a legalized anti-terrorist center, staffed with the same
Russian servicemen and equipment, in place of illegal military
bases,” Gamkrelidze said in comments broadcast by Imedi television.
Gamkrelidze was referring to a parliamentary resolution, adopted in
March, in which the legislature called on President Mikheil
Saakashvili’s administration to declare the Russian bases illegal in
the event a withdrawal timetable was not agreed upon by mid May. So
far, Saakashvili has not formally acted on the non-binding
resolution. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In Moscow, Russian leaders seem to be laying the groundwork for
public acceptance of a withdrawal accord. Russian President Vladimir
Putin, in a meeting with the editorial staff of the Komsomolskaya
Pravda newspaper on May 23, downplayed the strategic significance of
the bases. “They are not bases, but just places where Soviet soldiers
were always located. These bases are not of interest for us in terms
of Russia’s security issues – this is the opinion of the Russian
General Staff,” Putin said.

Preliminary withdrawal plans call for Moscow to re-locate a portion
of its forces now stationed in Georgia to neighboring Armenia,
Russia’s strongest ally in the South Caucasus. The planned troop
transfer has caught the attention of Azerbaijan, as Azeri officials
fear that such a troop realignment could provide Armenia with a boost
in the ongoing search for a Nagorno-Karabakh peace settlement. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On May 23, the
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry passed a diplomatic note to Russian
officials stating that the planned reinforcement of Russian forces in
Armenia “does not serve the interests of peace and security in the
region.”

In Akhalkalaki, roughly 125 miles southwest of Tbilisi, life at the
Russian base, as the accompanying photos by Alexander Klimchuk
illustrate, continues to follow its normal pace. Perhaps the people
most anxious about the pending withdrawal agreement are local
residents. The Akhalkalaki base is a major employer for residents of
the surrounding area, many of whom are ethnic Armenians. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Local residents are
concerned that once the Russian forces leave, economic opportunities
will evaporate. Georgian government officials have tried to reassure
the ethnic Armenian population, pledging to provide additional
support for the maintenance of the existing socio-economic
infrastructure. However, such pledges do not assuage Akhalkalaki’s
ethnic Armenian community leaders, who note that government efforts
to improve local economic conditions, undertaken since Saakashvili
became president in January 2004, have produced few noticeable
results to date.