Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
May 24 2005
MOSCOW SIGNALS IT MAY REDEPLOY SOME FORCES FROM GEORGIA TO ARMENIA
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
Russian General Baluyevsky said that heavy weaponry in Georgia would
be redeployed in Armenia. Meeting with the staff of Komsomolskaya
pravda on May 23, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, with
reference to the possible closure of Russian bases in Georgia: “We
must create the necessary conditions for the evacuation of our troop
contingent, its accommodation on Russian territory or in some other
place.” He apparently meant the possible relocation of some of those
troops to Armenia. One of Russia’s conditions for closing its bases
in Georgia, Putin went on to say, is transit rights for Russian
forces via Georgia to Armenia (Interfax, May 23).
Four days earlier, the Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s armed
forces, General Yuri Baluyevsky, told the press in Moscow that some
of the heavy weaponry from Russian bases in Georgia would be
redeployed with Russian forces in Armenia, if Georgia insists that
Russia close those bases by 2009 (Georgia actually insists on 2008).
Baluyevsky indicated that Moscow could forgo the redeployment of
combat hardware to Armenia, if Georgia would agree to a 10-year term
for Russian troop withdrawal. In that case, he suggested, there would
be sufficient time and funding for accommodating the troops and
storing the weaponry under proper conditions in Russia (Interfax,
RIA-Novosti, May 19).
In a little-noted move on May 21, Armenia’s Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian met with Russia’s Minister for Territorial Development
Vladimir Yakovlev in Yerevan for a session of the CIS
Inter-Ministerial Commission for Cooperation in Building Activities.
Yakovlev, whose ministry is in charge of construction projects,
discussed with Sarkisian the resumption of unfinished construction
work at the Russian military base in Gyumry, Armenia (PanArmenian
News, May 21). This move seems to confirm Moscow’s intention to
prepare for relocating part of its force from Georgia to Armenia, if
a troop-withdrawal agreement with Georgia is signed.
Moscow’s apparent intention is disturbing to Azerbaijan. In an
initial public reaction, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Araz
Azimov recalled previous transfers of Russian arms to Armenia, noting
that yet another increase in those arsenals could fuel regional
instability. “We are seriously concerned about this, and would not
want Russia to do this again,” Azimov stated during a NATO seminar in
Baku. A communique from Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry, citing
Baluyevsky’s remarks, “condemn[ed] such steps,” and noted that Russia
would be arming a country that is at war with Azerbaijan (ANS, Turan,
May 20).
On May 23, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elmar
Mamedyarov, summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires ad interim to hand
him a verbal note that the ministry made public. Expressing serious
concern over possible redeployment of Russian arsenals from bases in
Georgia to Armenia, the document notes, “Such a turn of events would
run counter to the interests of peace and security in the region and,
moreover, increase tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan during a
complicated phase of conflict-settlement negotiations.” Azerbaijan
“hopes that Russia would desist from that intention” (Turan, May 23).
Armenia’s authorities are not known to have reacted one way or
another to Moscow’s declared intention. Nor have Putin, Baluyevsky,
or others deemed it necessary to say that they had asked for and
received Armenia’s consent to the possible redeployment. The
assumption all around appears to be, first, that Russia can use
Armenia’s territory for military purposes at will; and, second, that
Armenia would welcome another infusion of Russian combat hardware on
its territory.
Quoting Russian Duma Chairman Boris Gryzlov’s notorious
characterization of Armenia as “Russia’s outpost,” a leading Yerevan
liberal newspaper observes, “Russia is doing to Armenia, in this case
on Armenian territory, what it likes. Nobody from the Armenian elite
says anything. … Putting Armenian territory at Russia’s disposal is
the price that Armenian authorities have to pay for the Kremlin’s
support” (Aravot, May 20).
According to the latest issue of The Military Balance, Russia
currently maintains 3,500 troops, 74 main battle tanks, 238 armored
combat vehicles and personnel carriers, 84 artillery systems, and 18
Mig-29 aircraft in Armenia (International Institute for Strategic
Studies, 2005.) Armenia has yielded part of its own entitlement quota
of CFE Treaty-limited heavy weaponry to Russia for deployment on
Armenian territory. However, verification of compliance with treaty
ceilings is impossible because a large part of that weaponry is
deployed inside territory seized from Azerbaijan, uncounted and out
of bounds to inspection.