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Armenian Center for National and International Studies
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Yerevan 375033, Armenia
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May 25, 2005

ACNIS Examines Armenia and the Region in Light of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

Yerevan–The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS)
today convened a policy roundtable on “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC): A New
Pulse in the Region” to shed light on Armenia’s place and role this time in
the context of regional economic developments. The meeting, which coincided
with the official ceremony to launch the Azerbaijani section of the BTC
pipeline named after Heydar Aliyev, brought together policy analysts, public
figures, academic circles, media and NGO representatives to debate the
prospects and opportunities of the “contract of the century” as the
presumptive crux of regional integration processes.

ACNIS research coordinator Stiopa Safarian greeted the participants with
opening remarks. “I trust that today we will take an unbiased and
comprehensive view on the regional political and economic situation in the
wake of the BTC oil pipeline. How will the BTC impact on regional security,
will all regional actors equally benefit from the big deal, will it create
dividing lines or advanced and backward players in the region?,” queried
Safarian.

Edward Aghajanov, an economist with the Armat Center, intervened on “The
Economic Rhythm of the Region in the Wake of the BTC Oil Pipeline.” He was
concerned that after “the contract of the century” Armenia may become an odd
man out. “Still in 2002 former Azerbaijani president Heydar Aliyev declared
that not only oil but politics would run through the pipeline. Hence it was
a political program from the very beginning, which aimed to turn into a
geopolitical factor. Consequently, our authorities should have sensed the
smell of oil in connection with a future decision on Mountainous Karabagh
issue,” Aghajanov underlined. He said Armenia had but one potential lever
against the oil card: democracy. And finally, given the development of a new
USA-Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan axis, Nursultan Nazarbaev has expressed the
willingness of Kazakhstan to join the project and proposed to call the
pipeline Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Armenia, in the economist’s view, faced
the challenge of expressing its attitude regarding the issue.

ACNIS analyst Alvard Barkhudarian spoke on “Speculations over BTC in the
Region and Beyond.” She particularly noted the political, economic,
security, social, and ecological aspects of the speculations, as well as the
pessimistic predictions that did not come true over the last decade. The
reality is that the 1,700 kilometer-long pipeline will transfer one million
barrels of oil per day to Turkey. “Besides, the corridor through which the
pipeline passes in the general economic environment involves three states of
the region, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and bypasses Armenia,” she
emphasized, noting that the exploitation of energy resources has always been
driven by economic and political interests. In her opinion,
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan is a fact, and the rest is commentary and forecasting.
The pipeline is a guarantee for regional security and against war. It is in
Armenia’s interests to have economically developed, advanced neighbors.

The formal interventions were followed by contributions by Dr. Heghine
Manasian, director of Eurasia Foundation’s Caucasus Research Resource
Center; Gagik Ter-Haroutiunian of Noravank Foundation; David Petrosian of
Noyan Tapan news agency; Luder Tavit Sahagian, graduate student of Caucasian
and Central Asian Studies at Berlin’s Humboldt University; economic reporter
Gegham Kyurumian; Sargis Manoukian of the Heritage Party; Shirak Torosian of
the Mighty Fatherland Party; Edward Antinian of the National Progressive
Party; Ruzan Khachatrian of the People’s Party; Moushegh Lalayan of the
Republican Party; Karlen Alexanian of the Democratic Fatherland Party;
Alexander Butaev of the National Democratic Union; and several others.

Founded in 1994 by Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K.
Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors, ACNIS serves
as a link between innovative scholarship and the public policy challenges
facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the post-Soviet world. It also
aspires to be a catalyst for creative, strategic thinking and a wider
understanding of the new global environment. In 2005, the Center focuses
primarily on civic education, conflict resolution, and applied research on
critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.

For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax
(37410) 52-48-46; e-mail root@acnis.am or info@acnis.am; or visit