US, Azerbaijan agreed on stationing bases, report says

AzerNews
May 25-31

The United States and Azerbaijan agreed on stationing US forces in the
Azerbaijani territory, a US-Israeli strategic forecasting center
said. The general accord on the issue was reached during a visit by
the US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to Baku on April 12 that was
shrouded in secrecy, Stratfor reported quoting a reliable source in
the Azerbaijani government.

“The US will start pulling in its forces this year. The divisions will
be formally called ‘temporarily-stationed mobile forces’ but US
military presence will be long-term, considering the tremendous
interest this country takes in the Caucasus region. US forces will
start arriving in Azerbaijan in the next few weeks”, according to
Stratfor analysts.

Azerbaijani Defense Ministry dismissed the report on stationing US
bases.

“This information is absolutely false”, its spokesman Ramiz Malikov
said.

The report further said that US forces will be stationed in three
small bases, with the main one in the Kurdamir district, 150
kilometers west of Baku. The contingent will change depending on the
military needs of the United States.

The bases that will host US aircraft have runways and barracks and
have already been upgraded to meet the required standards.

Stratfor experts believe that one of the key objectives for stationing
US forces is to safeguard the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main export
pipeline. The US European Command is training ‘Caspian guards’
consisting of local armed forces and special troops for this
purpose. The report also suggested that dozens of US trainers have
been ‘quietly’ working in Azerbaijan for several months.

The ‘invasion to Azerbaijan’ also targets completing the process of
‘geo-political surrounding’ and setting up a forepost for an attack on
Iran. The Bush administration recently hinted that it plans to attack
Iran due to a nuclear threat from this country. The US is also trying
to create a corridor from Europe to remote Central Asia regions for
further stationing of armed forces and machinery there in order to
create new levers for pressure on Russia.

Stratfor analysts say that Baku has been trying to deter the
‘invasion’ for a long time but finally agreed with the US on the
stationing of bases early in April after US ambassador Reno Harnish
threatened the Azerbaijani authorities with a ‘velvet revolution’.

With regard to the recent signing of the memorandum on Azeri-Iranian
defense cooperation, the report said that in exchange for preventing
the entry of US forces to Azerbaijani territory, Tehran offered
military and technical supplies or assistance to Azerbaijan that could
be useful should hostilities with Armenia resume.

The Stratfor report suggests that the issue of stationing US troops
has already been solved. However, this assumption is rather dubious
considering the recent visit by Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar
Abiyev to Tehran. It is highly unlikely that the Azeri authorities
were negotiating joint defense efforts with Iran just weeks before the
planned arrival of US forces.

Another issue involved is the possible mistrust between Washginton in
Baku, as ‘velvet revolution’ may still be staged even if US bases are
stationed in the country. Signing of the mentioned memorandum with
Iran could imply that the Azerbaijani government is seeking the needed
additional guarantees from Washington.

The deployment of bases in Azerbaijan is important for the United
States in terms of ensuring the security of strategic energy
facilities. American capital is involved in major oil and gas projects
in the region and Caspian oil is a key part of the Western countries’
policy on creating alternative energy sources.

US forces currently surround Iran in a semi-circle from the direction
of Turkey, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. The only outlet for
Iran is its northern border, where Armenia and Azerbaijan are
located. A complete encirclement of Iran is currently impossible as
America is not likely to succeed in entering Armenia, which is
Russia’s forepost. Azerbaijan is therefore the only alternative left.

The entry of US troops to Azerbaijan for a subsequent attack on Iran
may turn out costly for official Baku. Unlike the territory of Turkey,
that of Azerbaijan is poorly protected. Unlike Afghanistan and Iraq,
large-scale and vulnerable economic projects are being implemented in
Azerbaijan with US capital involved. This may also lead to
destabilization within the country provoked by Iranian and Russian
residents.

Another factor involved is pressure that several million Azeris
working in Russia would face. Besides, it is still unclear whether the
United States intends to attack Iran or try to stage a change of power
in Tehran within the country. But both options allow stationing of US
bases in Azerbaijan as an additional leverage.

The Stratfor report apparently suggested that US attack on Iran is
around the corner, or the US is deliberately trying to escalate
tensions in the region.

If US plans to launch the offensive in the distant future, it could do
so by simply sending trainers to Azerbaijan and adapting local
military facilities for US troops.

Stratfor analysts say that Baku made a concession to Washington
because it fears a ‘velvet revolution’. Undoubtedly, after a series of
such revolutions, most ruling circles in the Commonwealth of
Independent States (former Soviet Union) are at serious unrest. The
United States has promises that it is ready to support opposition in
Caucasus and Central Asia states to ensure freedom of world nations.

US President George Bush said ‘democratic revolutions’ are likely to
happen in these countries. Addressing the International Republican
Institute in Washington early last week, Bush said people are awaiting
changes and ‘such changes will come’.

Bush said global democracy is rapidly developing and ‘velvet
revolutions’ have taken place around the world over the past 18
months. “This is a good start”, he said.

Washington plans to establish a ‘core of prompt response’ throughout
the world to ‘export’ democracy. It will consist of diplomatic and
civil officers as well as volunteers who will be sent to crisis areas
to act as ‘civil rescuers’.

“This will allow sending the needed specialists to foreign countries
and deploy assistance programs in just days or weeks, rather than
months or years, which was the case until now.” The ‘revolutions’
will have a considerable cost. Bush said that over the past four
years, the White House has allocated $4.6 billion on programs
supporting democratic reforms around the world. The Bush
administration has asked the US Congress another $1.3 billion for such
spending in 2006.

Bush praised the aid provided by the Institute to the democratic
development in other countries.

“I appreciate the assistance provided by the Republican Institute for
the sake of freedom. It has been at the forefront of democratic
changes in over 100 world countries over the past 20 years, which
contributes to a safe, free and secure world.”