EurasiaNet Organization
May 27 2005

AZERBAIJAN, ARMENIA PROBE FOR NAGORNO-KARABAKH PEACE WHILE ON
WAR-FOOTING
Jonathan Alpeyrie 5/27/05

The prospects for lasting peace in Nagorno-Karabakh have improved
markedly in recent months. Yet, even as negotiators express hope for
a settlement that determines the region’s political status, sporadic
fighting occurs along the so-called contact line established by a
1994 ceasefire agreement. As this photo essay by Jonathan Alpeyrie
underscores, both Armenian and Azerbaijani forces remain on a war
footing as the two nations take cautious steps toward peace.

Much of the recent optimism surrounding the Karabakh peace process
was generated by May15-16 discussions between Armenian President
Robert Kocharian and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On May 25, the French representative from the OSCE Minsk Group, which
is mediating the talks, confirmed that the peace process was gaining
momentum after a long lull. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

“It is important to speed up the process,” Bernard Fassier, the
French Minsk Group representative, told Azerbaijan’s Azad TV on May
25. “There is some fundamental progress, though it is insufficient.”

Some political analysts have expressed concern that a breakdown in
the latest round of Karabakh negotiations, widely referred to as the
Prague Process, could lead to a significant expansion of hostilities.
In 2004, Azerbaijani leaders used increasingly bellicose language in
discussing the peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].

As the latest round of Karabakh talks gained traction, there was a
sharp increase in the number of reported ceasefire violations. In
late March and early April, skirmishes along the contact line were
almost a daily occurrence, leaving at least six dead. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Exchanges of gunfire have been reported even after the latest
Kocharian-Aliyev discussions. On May 18, for example, the Azerbaijani
Defense Ministry issued a statement saying Armenian and Azerbaijani
troops engaged in a firefight during the previous night in the
Kohjavend District. No casualties were reported.

With a peace deal far from certain, both countries appear to be
bracing for an arms race. Azerbaijani officials have indicated that a
portion of the profits generated by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,
which formally opened on May 25, would be used to upgrade Azerbaijani
military forces. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In response, Armenia’s Prime Minister Andranik Markarian urged that
Armenia boost its defense expenditures as “much as it can,” the
Arminfo news agency reported May 26.