The Daily Star, Lebanon
May 28 2005

Campaign U-turns continue to rattle polls

By Adnan El-Ghoul
Daily Star staff
Saturday, May 28, 2005

On the campaign trail

BEIRUT: With voting day mere hours away for the capital’s three
districts, excitement is starting to build in the rest of the country
as the expected landslide victory for a united opposition has
vanished and left a tightly contested battle, particularly among
Christian parties.

However, all is not guaranteed in Beirut, with figures such as Beirut
MPs Walid Eido and Ghinwa Jalloul facing serious competition from
independents Adnan Traboulsi and Adnan Araqji. But whichever
candidates win these two seats, Saad Hariri will still come out ahead
as all four contenders are seen to be supporters of the Hariri
family.

Despite having no hope of winning, the few other independent
candidates running in the capital are still in the race for the sole
reason of offering some form of opposition to the dominant coalitions
forged by Hariri and Chouf MP Walid Jumblatt.

Ironically, the family with the most chance of posing a threat to the
Hariri-Jumblatt list in Beirut, the Itanis (among others), decided
long ago to withdraw their candidates from the election to avoid
challenging Hariri’s leadership, despite commanding 12,000-plus votes
in the capital.

Meanwhile, former Beirut MP Najah Wakim continues his vigorous
campaign for the Orthodox seat in Beirut’s second district, well
aware of the futility of his efforts against such a figure as Beirut
MP Atef Majdalani; he would have had more luck facing off against
Gebran Tueni in the first district.

Observers expect a low voter turnout Sunday, unless the Future
Movement, Hizbullah and the Jumblatt’s PSP turn the polls into a
rally to boost the race in Mount Lebanon and the North.

But if such rallies are not held, the boredom and disappointment of
Beirut’s voters could spread throughout the country.

After all their negotiations to decide the elections themselves, it
will be up to the Hariri-led coalition to convince voters there is a
need for their participation. By all accounts, Sunday’s elections
will tell if Hariri can muster the same level of enthusiasm as his
father did in 2000.

Meanwhile, FPM leader Michel Aoun has finally departed from the
Qornet Shehwan Gathering, the main Christian opposition group, and in
so doing, completely altered the expected outcome of the polls.

In Baabda-Aley, the Chouf, Metn and the North, Aoun will now
challenge Jumblatt, Hariri and the scattered Christian parties. Even
if these developments do not cause a complete upset (as no one truly
expects they will), the unexpected shift has made the race too close
to call.

Aoun had allied his FPM with Talal Arslan’s Lebanese Democratic
Party, which will run alone against Jumblatt in the Chouf following
the voluntary withdrawal of General Issam Abu Jamra to advance the
chances of Arslan’s second-in-command, Marwan Abu Fadel, whereas Dory
Chamoun and the Syrian Social National Party were excluded from this
coalition.

Aoun’s attempts to form a strong political front in Baabda-Aley with
Dory Chamoun’s National Liberal Party, a Christian grouping that is
also strong in the area failed.

But reports said Friday these negotiations failed, and added there
was a possibility for an alliance between Chamoun and Jumblatt, who
criticized Aoun during the day, and accused him of weakening the
opposition.

In Aley-Baabda, the Aoun-Arslan coalition has formed a complete list
and left one of the area’s two Shiite seats vacant for Hizbullah’s
candidate.

Aoun also decided to stand for elections in Kesrouan-Jbeil, heading a
list of new faces against the Qornet Shehwan. In addition, Aoun left
vacant seats for Orthodox candidate Deputy Speaker Michel Murr and
Armenian Tashnag candidate Hagop Pakradounian. The two candidates
confirmed the new coalition in a news conference.

In the North, in yet another change of heart, former Premier Omar
Karami announced late Friday to participate after all in the
electoral process, saying he will encourage his supporters to vote
for Zghorta MP Suleiman Franjieh and Akkar MP Mikhael Daher, who may
in this 11th hour endorsement pose a real challenge to the
Hariri-Christian coalition.