ACNIS EXAMINES ARMENIA AND THE REGION IN LIGHT OF BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN

YEREVAN, MAY 26, NOYAN TAPAN. The Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS) today convened a policy roundtable on
“Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC): A New Pulse in the Region” to shed light
on Armenia’s place and role this time in the context of regional
economic developments. The meeting, which coincided with the official
ceremony to launch the Azerbaijani section of the BTC pipeline named
after Heydar Aliyev, brought together policy analysts, public figures,
academic circles, media and NGO representatives to debate the
prospects and opportunities of the “contract of the century” as the
presumptive crux of regional integration processes.

ACNIS research coordinator Stiopa Safarian greeted the participants
with opening remarks. “I trust that today we will take an unbiased and
comprehensive view on the regional political and economic situation in
the wake of the BTC oil pipeline. How will the BTC impact on regional
security, will all regional actors equally benefit from the big deal,
will it create dividing lines or advanced and backward players in the
region?,” queried Safarian.

Edward Aghajanov, an economist with the Armat Center, intervened on
“The Economic Rhythm of the Region in the Wake of the BTC Oil
Pipeline.” He was concerned that after “the contract of the century”
Armenia may become an odd man out.

“Still in 2002 former Azerbaijani president Heydar Aliyev declared
that not only oil but politics would run through the pipeline. Hence
it was a political program from the very beginning, which aimed to
turn into a geopolitical factor. Consequently, our authorities should
have sensed the smell of oil in connection with a future decision on
Mountainous Karabagh issue,” Aghajanov underlined. He said Armenia had
but one potential lever against the oil card: democracy. And finally,
given the development of a new USA-Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan axis,
Nursultan Nazarbaev has expressed the willingness of Kazakhstan to
join the project and proposed to call the pipeline
Aktau-Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.

Armenia, in the economist’s view, faced the challenge of expressing
its attitude regarding the issue.

ACNIS analyst Alvard Barkhudarian spoke on “Speculations over BTC in
the Region and Beyond.” She particularly noted the political,
economic, security, social, and ecological aspects of the
speculations, as well as the pessimistic predictions that did not come
true over the last decade. The reality is that the 1,700
kilometer-long pipeline will transfer one million barrels of oil per
day to Turkey. “Besides, the corridor through which the pipeline
passes in the general economic environment involves three states of
the region, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and bypasses Armenia,” she
emphasized, noting that the exploitation of energy resources has
always been driven by economic and political interests. In her
opinion, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan is a fact, and the rest is commentary and
forecasting. The pipeline is a guarantee for regional security and
against war. It is in Armenia’s interests to have economically
developed, advanced neighbors.

The formal interventions were followed by contributions by Dr. Heghine
Manasian, director of Eurasia Foundation’s Caucasus Research Resource
Center; Gagik Ter-Haroutiunian of Noravank Foundation; David Petrosian
of Noyan Tapan news agency; Luder Tavit Sahagian, graduate student of
Caucasian and Central Asian Studies at Berlin’s Humboldt University;
economic reporter Gegham Kyurumian; Sargis Manoukian of the Heritage
Party; Shirak Torosian of the Mighty Fatherland Party; Edward Antinian
of the National Progressive Party; Ruzan Khachatrian of the People’s
Party; Moushegh Lalayan of the Republican Party; Karlen Alexanian of
the Democratic Fatherland Party; Alexander Butaev of the National
Democratic Union; and several others.

Founded in 1994 by Armenia’s first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi
K. Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors,
ACNIS serves as a link between innovative scholarship and the public
policy challenges facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the
post-Soviet world. It also aspires to be a catalyst for creative,
strategic thinking and a wider understanding of the new global
environment. In 2005, the Center focuses primarily on civic education,
conflict resolution, and applied research on critical domestic and
foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.

For further information on the Center call (37410) 52-87-80 or
27-48-18; fax (37410) 52-48-46; e-mail root@acnis.am or info@acnis.am;
or visit