The Daily Star, Lebanon
May 30 2005

First round of voting exposes Hariri’s weakness

By Adnan El-Ghoul
Daily Star staff
Monday, May 30, 2005

On the campaign trail

BEIRUT: All eyes were on Beirut, where the much anticipated first
round of parliamentary elections were under way, with particular
attention being paid to voter turnout and the potential emergence of
any vulnerability in Saad Hariri’s seemingly absolute dominance.

While the predictably low turnout is not a sufficient factor to
penetrate Hariri’s lists, any upsets at the ballot would provide the
necessary spark to encourage Hariri’s opponents across the country to
put up a serious campaign and quit moaning that “the results are
already decided.”

Dashing the Hariri camp’s hopes for a high voter turnout, the
Armenian Tashnag Party and General Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic
Movement actively promoted boycotting Beirut’s elections, effectively
ensuring deserted polling stations in the capital’s
Christian-dominated areas.

But the low Christian turnout and relatively active Muslim
participation was sufficient to expose the Hariri-led coalition’s
true weakness, regardless of whether Hariri achieves the expected
sweep of the capital’s 19 seats.

For Hariri’s alliances to fully achieve their expressed goal of 80 to
90 seats in Parliament, Christians must participate at the ballot box
to push the considerable, but divided, weight of the Muslim community
in their favor.

Sunday’s results in Beirut will have a direct impact on how the
election campaign moves forward in the rest of the country,
especially in the North and West Bekaa, where Hariri is believed to
have the upper hand.

In Akkar, MP Ahmad Fatfat is still organizing Hariri’s campaign
without a Christian representative’s participation or public support,
with both sides remaining reluctant to make the final decision to
ally or not.

Meanwhile, several officials in the North, such as former Premier
Omar Karami, have yet to take decisive action either way. The the
exceptions are Zghorta MP Suleiman Franjieh and a few others, who
have continued to campaign in their respective constituencies
regardless of developments elsewhere.

When the election results are announced today, the situation will be
much clearer for those in the North and will surely encourage unity
among the Sunni representatives in Tripoli and Akkar and the
formation of a single list, in addition to pulling hitherto hesitant
Christians into their camp.

Following last week’s developments, the Aoun-Franjieh alliance is now
a reality. And with Beirut’s results likely to finally give Aoun
something to be happy about, the odds of victory for the
Aoun-Franjieh alliance, as well as that of the FPM and its allies in
Mount Lebanon, have increased greatly.

Round two of the elections will be held Sunday in the South, where
the Amal-Hizbullah alliance is assured victory through its domination
of the first district of Zahrani-Tyre-Bint Jbeil, but a heated battle
is mounting in the second district of Nabatieh-Hasbaya-Marjayoun.

The Lebanese Communist Party announced its incomplete list for both
districts Sunday in Nabatieh. During a rally, former detainee of
Israel Anwar Yassin, who is running in the elections on the LCP
ticket, stirred up the crowds with a passionate speech.

The leftists’ list includes Riyad Asaad, the last remaining candidate
running against House Speaker Nabih Berri.

In Metn, Aoun is still undecided on an offer from Michel Murr to
merge with the latter’s two-man list or form his own list independent
of Murr and Murr’s opponents, the Qornet Shehwan Gathering.

Aoun has decided to run himself in Kesrouan-Jbeil and has approached
several prominent figures such as MPs Fares Boueiz and Mansour Ghanem
to join him, but none have yet to accept the offer except MP
Neamatallah Abi Nasr.

In Hermel-Baalbek, the Baath Party’s candidate was removed from the
Hizbullah-led list due to continued disputes inside the Baath
leadership over the candidacy.