Azeri analyst ponders on possible mutual concessions on Karabakh

Yeni Musavat, Baku
30 May 05

Text of Elsad Pasasoy report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on
30 May headlined “Will Baku-Ceyhan facilitate return of Karabakh?” and
subheaded “Rasim Musabayov: ‘If America and Europe decide to persuade
Armenia, its stubbornness will not last long'”

A debate on the occupied territories of Azerbaijan have intensified
after the inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline (BTC).

Optimists believe that in the wake of the opening of the BTC the
West and Europe will – at least for the pipeline’s security –
seek a just resolution to the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. Those
who harbour the opposite view, however, maintain that in order to
secure their oil interests the foreign powers will not only turn a
blind eye to the invasion of Azerbaijan’s lands, but will also never
allow the Baku government to resolve the problem through the use of
force. Incidentally, those who hold this view received new evidence
in support of their argument after Azerbaijan made a commitment to the
Council of Europe to resolve the problem exclusively by peaceful means.

However, another person has joined the ranks of the optimists
recently. Bernard Fassier, the French co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk
Group, said that the inauguration of the BTC will accelerate resolution
of the conflict. As France and Armenia are friendly countries, it is
doubtful that the French representative can have a pro-Azerbaijani
position.

Political analyst Rasim Musabayov believes that the co-chairman’s
remarks are based on the reality. Musabayov recalled that large
sums have been spent on the pipeline and the pipeline will carry
large volumes of the Azerbaijani oil to the world market. “The
current situation of neither peace nor war means that war is a real
possibility. It is dangerous to operate under such a risk. In this
sense, it is natural that France, as an investor and as a future major
consumer of this oil, is interested in serious progress being made on
the Nagornyy Karabakh problem. The likelihood of war must be reduced,
if not to zero, then to the minimum possible level,” Musabayov said.

We wonder whether a resolution facilitated by the BTC will be in
favour of Armenia or Azerbaijan. Musabayov said that he does not
expect the problem to be resolved soon. In his view, steps reducing
the possibility of war can only be taken. “These steps should involve
the liberation of districts around Nagornyy Karabakh. If this is done,
the possibility of war can be reduced to a minimum,” he said.

If Armenia is not part of the BTC project, then what interest
does it have in making concessions on the Karabakh problem for the
pipeline’s security? Consequently, it is Azerbaijan which has to
make major concessions on the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict in order
to make the BTC secure. Fassier’s remarks point to this. “Instead of
making statements about war, the heads of states should rather be busy
preparing the public in their countries for concessions,” the French
mediator said. Undoubtedly, these remarks are alarming for Azerbaijan.

In Musabayov’s opinion, Armenia could gain from this a guarantee of
Nagornyy Karabakh’s complete security. “Of course, Armenian claims
are directed at getting more from Azerbaijan. However, Armenia is
not on its own. It is financially on America and Europe. If America
and Europe decide to persuade Armenia, its stubbornness will not last
long,” the analyst said.