CHANGE OF POWER IN GERMANY MAY BURY THE IDEA OF TURKEY’S EU MEMBERSHIP

Pan Armenian News

The future Chancellor of Germany will probably be against the acception
of Turkey to the family of European nations.

On Monday, the major German oppositional political force – the
“Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union” has selected the
candidate for the federal chancellor’s post. In case of victory of
the conservators in the upcoming pre-term parliamentary elections the
government will be headed by the leader of the “Christian Democratic
Union/Christian Social Union” Angela Merkel. The tough pronouncements
of Miss Merkel towards Turkey have won the sympathy of Armenians,
guaranteeing the support of the large Armenian community of Germany.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Political analysts consider the coming of “Christian
Democratic Union/Christian Social Union” quite realistic. The ruling
Social-democratic party headed by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has
lost the greatest part of the Land elections. The last drop was the
loss in the most populous and urbanized Land – North Rhine-Westphalia
where the “Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union” has
ruled without break during the past 39 years. After a series of
failures, the Social Democrats have little chance of success. The
negative outcome of the European Constitution referendum in France
weakened Schroeder’s party even more since the Germans associate the
failure of European constitution with the failure of its founders,
including the German Chancellor.

The change of power may bring certain changes in the state policy of
Germany concerning issues that are in the interests of Armenia. This
first of all refers to Turkey. With the coming of Christian Democrats
the position of Berlin concerning Armenian Genocide will become much
more distinct. According to the Armenian Ambassador in Germany Karine
Kazinyan, the resolution, recognizing the fact of Armenian Genocide
in Ottoman Turkey may be passed by the Bundestag yet before its
dissolution. However, if that does not happen, the future parliament
controlled by the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union
will probably insert tougher formulations in the resolution text. In
this situation Armenian community does not need to hurry with the
lobbying of returning the issue of Armenian genocide to the agenda.

The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union may arouse
the issue of Armenian genocide already in June not to win the votes
of German Armenians, but to demonstrate their principality towards
Ankara and to persuade people in their ability to prevent Turkey’s
EU membership. Excessive radicalism of Angela Merkel in this issue
should more likely alarm than please Armenian political leaders. The
thing is that the leader of Christian Democratic Union/Christian
Social Union excludes the possibility of Turkey’s EU membership,
accepting only Turkey’s status of a “special partner”. In this case
Miss Merkel shows solidarity to the French people who, judging by the
results of the referendum, also intend to get rid of the undesirable
neighborhood with the Turks, even if they fulfill all the set
requirements. This means that Ankara actually does not need to fulfill
any requirements, including those concerning the genocide and the
opening of the borderline with Armenia. Such an approach contradicts to
our interests since it bears a hidden threat to our national security,
because outcast Turkey will not only refuse to compromise, but will
also become an unpredictable neighbor. Paradoxically, it turns out
that in this case the interests of Yerevan and Ankara coincide,
since full removal of the issue of Turkey’s EU membership from the
agenda equally contradicts the interest of both Armenia and Turkey.

01.06.2005, “PanARMENIAN Network” analytical department