News from Washington University in St. Louis (press release),
Washington
June 8 2005

America has big stake in supporting democracy in former Soviet
Republic of Georgia, suggest international studies expert

June 8, 2005 – As Americans celebrate independence this July 4, they
may wish to consider the plight of another democracy – one that is
young and struggling and whose continued success could have a
dramatic impact on the world economy, the price of gasoline and other
critical U.S. interests, suggests James V. Wertsch, director of
International and Area Studies at Washington University in St. Louis.

Given America’s obsession with war and terrorism in the Middle East,
it is countries such as Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan that may come
first to mind. However, by focusing on this troubled region, the
United States is missing an opportunity to partner with a nation
where Americans are actually welcomed with open arms; one where the
fate of a struggling democratic system could have huge ripple effects
around the globe. That country is the former Soviet Republic of
Georgia, says Wertsch, the Marshall S. Snow Professor in Arts &
Sciences at Washington University.

Why is Georgia so important to the U.S.?

Part of the answer, Wertsch contends, lies in the pipelines running
across Georgia’s territory that carry oil and gas to the West.
Georgia provides a new route to the oil riches of the Caspian. This
is a route that avoids Russia and Iran at America’s insistence, as
well as Armenia, at the insistence of Azerbaijan, which is the source
of the oil. In particular, Georgia is the transit country for the new
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline running from Azerbaijan to the
Mediterranean coast of Turkey. This pipeline, which is just beginning
to pump oil, will eventually carry a million barrels of crude a day
to the West.

Dependence on foreign oil is an issue of obvious importance to most
Americans and it should be especially compelling for those anguishing
over the cost of fueling up for traditional Independence Day driving
excursions. However, as Americans celebrate their own love of freedom
and democracy, they should realize, says Wertsch, that it is these
same institutions that underlie the real strategic value of Georgia
to the United States.

James Wertsch

Wertsch points to the tumultuous welcome that thousands of Georgians
gave President George W. Bush when he visited in May to support his
assertion. The visit’s purpose was to cast a spotlight on democratic
developments following the “Rose Revolution” of November 2003, the
nonviolent popular uprising that overturned the corrupt Georgian
government of post-Soviet president Eduard Shevardnadze. Even the
subsequent discovery of a grenade in the area where Bush addressed a
huge crowd in Tbilisi did little to dampen positive impressions on
both sides, he says.

Wertsch says the United States should redouble its efforts to support
and strengthen the emerging democratic movement in Georgia because
what happens there may be a bellwether for the fate of democracy in
nations across much of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

“The ramifications of the Rose Revolution extend well beyond
Georgia’s borders,” says Wertsch, the co-editor of the journal
Caucasus Context and the 2005 volume Enough! The Rose Revolution in
the Republic of Georgia. “The attention it has garnered has made
democratic upheaval thinkable in places like Ukraine, a country where
Georgian flags sprouted in the massive rallies of the “Orange
Revolution” of last winter. And it is commonly brought up in
discussions of Kyrgyzstan’s “Tulip Revolution” of this spring and
even in talk about potential upheaval in Russia.”

During his visit Bush was effusive in his praise of Mikheil
Saakashvili, the youthful president of Georgia who led the Rose
Revolution. This praise is warranted, suggests Wertsch, but the mark
of true friendship is the ability to speak frankly about problems
others may wish to ignore, and today Georgia definitely is in need of
a friend.

“The afterglow of the Rose Revolution has now faded,” Wertsch notes.
“Corruption remains a major problem, disruptions in electricity and
water services have re-appeared, and Georgians are becoming
increasingly frustrated with the lack of jobs and economic
development. Thanks to weak opposition, Saakashvili’s presidency is
not in danger at this point, but his approval ratings have gone into
steep decline. In short, he has largely used up the political capital
he acquired from the Rose Revolution, and the country stands at a
juncture where a new style of leadership is required.”

“What Georgia needs now is solid, day-to-day leadership, but
Saakashvili has continued to rely on populist gestures that all too
often appear, at best, impulsive,” says Wertsch.

“There are all too many parties who would love to see the Georgian
experiment in democracy and civil society fail. America needs to see
it succeed,” says Wertsch. ” As true friends of Georgia, we need to
stress that the days of populist revolution are over, and the time
for steady, solid leadership and governance has arrived. In the end,
Georgians are the only ones who can provide such leadership. The U.S.
should stand ready to help in any way possible, starting with
ongoing, frank assessments of the problems facing the country today
and the steps required of a responsible leadership to address them.”

—————————————————————-

Regional outlook

Georgia’s regional neighbor Uzbekistan has been in the news as the
result of a May 13 anti-government protest that was put down by Uzbek
troops in what some describe as a massacre of citizens fed up with
the nation’s repressive post-Soviet government.

Map source: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency

Wertsch suggests that the volatile situation in Uzbekistan is
noteworthy in part because it shows just how that nation is following
a much different path than Georgia.

“To be sure, some folks in Uzbekistan looked to Georgia as a model
for what they wanted to create there,” says Wertsch “I have discussed
this with Uzbeks for over a year. However, what happened there is
quite different for some pretty identifiable reasons, and the result
is that no democracy has emerged in Uzbekistan and more trouble is
inevitable in the future.”

“Ukraine is the best follow-on case, and Kyrgyzstan and especially
Uzbekistan are very different. The Russians have a vested interest in
portraying all of these “color revolutions” as the same – illegal
putsches that are bound to lead to instability and failure, but there
is some pretty critical discussion going on in Moscow about how this
might be the wrong way to look at things.”

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