Washington Times, DC
June 8 2005
Revitalizing U.S.-Turkey relations
By Frank Carlucci/F. Stephen Larrabee
The White House meeting between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan and President Bush today provides an important opportunity to
revitalize U.S.-Turkish relations, badly frayed by the American-led
invasion of Iraq.
A strong partnership with Turkey is very much in the U.S.
interest. Turkey is located the nexus of three areas of increasing
strategic importance to the United States: Europe, the Caspian/Black
Sea region, and the Middle East. In each areas, Turkish cooperation
is vital to achievingU.S. interests.
However, U.S.-Turkish relations have badly deteriorated of late.
Differences over Iraq have been accompanied by a disturbing growth of
anti-Americanism in Turkey. A recent poll by the German Marshall
Fund, for instance, found 82 percent of Turks polled did not support
U.S. policy. If these trends continue, they could irreparably harm
long-term U.S.-Turkish relations.
Recently, however, there have been signs both sides want improved
relations. In May, the Turkish parliament agreed to allow the United
States to use the Turkish airbase at Incirlik as a logistics hub for
transporting cargo to Iraq and Afghanistan. And in April the U.S. and
Turkey signed a $1.1 billion deal for upgrading of 117 F-16 fighter
jets.
These positive developments can serve as building blocks to
develop a revitalized Turkish-American partnership and new strategic
agenda. The key items on this agenda should include:
– Iraq: The United States and Turkey share a common interest in
the emergence of a stable democratic Iraq. But the Turks worry that
increasing Kurdish influence in Iraq – especially in the oil-rich
city of Kirkuk – could lead to the emergence of an independent
Kurdish state on Turkey’s borders and strengthen separatism among
Turkey’s large Kurdish population. Ankara also wants the U.S. to
clamp down on militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK), which has recently stepped up cross-border attacks from safe
havens in northern Iraq. If the U.S. continues ignoring Turkey’s
pleas, Turkish anti-American sentiment is likely to grow, and Turkey
may feel compelled to take unilateral action against the PKK in
northern Iraq.
– Broader Middle East democratization: As a secular Muslim
country, Turkey can play an important role in supporting democracy in
the Middle East. But the U.S. should avoid touting Turkey as a model,
as some U.S. policymakers are wont to do. Many Turks, especially the
military and the secular Westernized elite, are wary of being
portrayed as an “Islamic model,” which they fear will strengthen the
role of Islam in Turkey and weaken Turkey’s ties to the West. In a
toughly worded speech at the end of April the head of the Turkish
general staff, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, strongly denied Turkey was a model
for the Islamic world. Moreover, Turkey’s image in the Arab world is
tarnished by its imperial past and its strong ties to Israel.
– Iran: Turkey and the United States also share a common
interest in containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Neither wants to see
a nuclear-armed Iran. At the same time, Turkey has an important
interest in maintaining good economic and political relations with
Tehran, a major natural gas source for Turkey’s expanding needs.
Turkey also shares a common interest with Iran in containing Kurdish
separatism. Thus the United States cannot expect Turkey to support
totally isolating Iran.
-Central Asia and the Caucasus: A strategic dialogue on
cooperation in these areas should be a top priority for both sides.
Both countries share an interest in stabilizing this conflict-ridden
region. In particular, they should work together to help resolve the
conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. A settlement would open new
possibilities for improved relations between Armenia and Turkey and
also allow Armenia to reduce its dependence on Russia.
– Europe: Turkey’s entry into the European Union is in the
long-term interest of the United States. It will make Europe a
stronger strategic partner and strengthen efforts to promote
democratic reform in Turkey. At the same time, Washington needs to
recognize that Turkish membership in the EU – if achieved – will
result in a more “Europeanized” Turkey, one which looks increasingly
to Brussels rather than to Washington.
– Cyprus: Finally, both sides need to work together to promote a
Cyprus settlement. Turkey has done its part. Last spring, the Turkish
Cypriots, backed by Turkey, voted for the plan sponsored by U.N.
Secretary General Kofi Annan. The Greek Cypriots, however, rejected
the plan. The election in April of Mehmet Ali Talat, new president of
Turkish Cyprus, has boosted hopes for progress toward an eventual
settlement.
Unlike his predecessor, Rauf Denktas, Mr. Talat supports the
Annan plan and resumed bicommunal talks with Greek Cyprus.
None of these changes would end all U.S.-Turkish differences. But
they would help put relations back on a much firmer footing and
contribute to a critically important regional stability.
Frank Carlucci is a former defense secretary and national
security adviser in the Reagan administration, and a member of the
RAND Corp. board of trustees. F. Stephen Larrabee was a member of the
Carter administration National Security Council staff and holds the
RAND Corporate Chair in European Security.