Washington Times, DC
June 9 2005

Analysis: Russia’s friends and foes

By Peter Lavelle
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL

Moscow, Russia, Jun. 9 (UPI) — A recent public opinion poll suggests
Russians clearly believe the country has friends and foes in the
world. However, results also suggest Russians are almost evenly split
— for some a foe is a friend and a friend a foe. Is Russia still
looking for its place in the world?

The Levada Center, Russia’s independent and most-respected public
opinion agency, polled 1,600 Russians older than 18 years of age at
the end May to determine how the general population sees the outside
world. Determining which countries in the world are Russia’s friends
and foes produced surprises and even contradictions.

News reports of the Levada Center’s findings did not make clear
whether citizens polled were prompted with names of countries or
asked to number countries on their own. The poll also did not provide
a margin of error.

Belarus came out on top as Russia’s greatest friend in the world with
46 percent. Following Belarus, Germany came in second with 23 percent
and Russia’s other friends include Kazakhstan 20 percent, Ukraine 17
percent, India16 percent, France 13 percent, China 12 percent, the
United States 11 percent, Bulgaria 11 percent and Armenia 9 percent.

On the other side of the ledger, Latvia topped the list as Russia’s
strongest foe according to 49 percent of respondents. Following it,
Lithuania with 42 percent, Georgia at 38 percent, Estonia 32 percent,
the United States 23 percent, France 13 percent, Afghanistan 12
percent, Iraq 10 percent, Japan 6 percent and Iran 6 percent.

Cursory review of the poll’s findings shows many interesting issues
currently in play. Russia’s greatest recent enemy — Germany — is
widely seen to be a friend. Russia’s other important adversary during
the World War II, Japan, is not widely seen to be an enemy by a vast
majority of those polled.

Many of the countries that are considered enemies now are Russia’s
neighbors. The recent heated public demand and diplomatic row that
Russia should apologize to the Baltic republics for a half century of
Soviet occupation should be ascribed to the current antipathy many
Russian have toward those countries. The widely held belief that
Russian nationals living in the Baltic republics are denied some
basic human rights have also influenced public perceptions of these
countries.

The former Soviet republic of Georgia is also viewed in a dim light
among many Russians. The close relationship President Mikhail
Saakashvili has pursued with the United States and the tug-of-war
over the closure of Russian military bases in the country has soured
Russia-Georgian relations in the public mind.

The perception of Ukraine and the United States is the most striking
and contradictory of the poll results — both countries are deemed as
friend and foe by many of the respondents.

Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution” and many of the anti-Russian overtones
that could be heard in media claiming Kremlin “meddling” in Ukraine’s
internal affairs continues to be irksome to many Russians. At the
same time, people-to-people and economic relations continue to tie
the two countries together.

The perception of the United States appears to be almost
schizophrenic. The fact that more respondents see it as a foe than as
a friend could be accounted for as a lingering Cold War phenomenon.
However, what may be more important than the past is many of the
countries considered foes have good relations with Washington. After
all, President Bush sandwiched his recent visit Moscow with stops in
Latvia and Georgia.

Another important result of the public opinion poll is the conclusion
that the majority of Russians asked have no majority consensus of one
international friend or foe and a significant minority who believe it
has more foes than friends.

The poll result also demonstrates how Russia has maintained close
ties with former Soviet friends, India for example. But Russia has
also reached out to former Soviet foes, namely the United States.
Some former constituent parts of the Soviet Union — once considered
“family” — rate high as countries most disliked.

The most compelling reason for the lack of consensus among many
Russians can be explained as a reflection of Russia still trying to
find its place in the world after the Soviet collapse 14 years ago.

Most importantly, Russia appears to find it hardest to come to terms
with many of the countries it has had the closest relations with for
centuries. This should serve as a wake up call for the Kremlin that
Russia’s neighbors are also coping to find their place in the world.

—

Peter Lavelle is United Press International’s Moscow correspondent.