Azeri authorities “disunited” in run-up to polls – opposition daily

Azadliq, Baku
15 Jun 05

The Azerbaijani authorities are fragmented and are unlikely to agree
on joint candidates during the November parliamentary elections, the
opposition daily Azadliq has reported. The newspaper listed several
groups within the authorities saying that they will strive for seats
in parliament. This situation “does not bode well for the
authorities”, the report said. The following is the text of Sucaddin
Sarifov report by Azerbaijani newspaper Azadliq on 15 June headlined
“The authorities are disunited ahead of the elections” and subheaded
“The lack of will and infighting between various groups casts doubts
on the joint list of the authorities’ candidates”. Subheadings as
published:

The November parliamentary elections do not bode well for the
government. In terms of many factors related to the elections, they
are quite different from the previous elections.

The opposition has already fulfilled one of the conditions deemed
necessary for succeeding in the elections. The People’s Front of
Azerbaijan Party [PFAP], the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan [DPA] and
the Musavat Party – all publicly and internationally recognized as
the major opposition parties – have set up the Azadliq bloc. The
majority of the public supports the bloc and the three parties will
put forward joint candidates in the elections.

Another important condition for ensuring that the elections are
democratic was to attract the attention of the international
community to the elections. The situation in this regard is also
drastically different from what was the case several years ago.
Serious international reaction to the authorities’ violence against
peaceful demonstrators on 21 May showed that attention to Azerbaijan
has soared compared with previous years.

Another advantages of the opposition is that there is a rather weak
and spineless leader at the helm of the authorities and this casts
doubts on the authorities’ ability to run joint candidates in the
elections. The first signs that the authorities will be disunited
during the elections can already be seen. The current situation gives
grounds to say that it is difficult not only for the authorities as a
whole, but even for the ruling New Azerbaijan Party [NAP] to run
joint candidates. This is being openly admitted.

In a recent interview with a newspaper, the executive secretary of
the NAP, Ali Ahmadov, pointed out that there were some problems with
the NAP putting forward a list of candidates for the elections. He
did not rule out that there may be several NAP candidates from one
precinct and hoped that the voting would resolve the ensuing
problems. It must also be noted that there are many ambitious groups
which back the government and pin their hopes on the levers available
to the authorities.

Ramiz Mehdiyev’s group

One of such groups comprises people who are backed by the head of the
presidential administration, Ramiz Mehdiyev. Most of people in this
group have set up election blocs in accordance with the spheres in
which they work. One of the reasons why these people will run
separate blocs in the elections is to create the impression of
diversity in the future parliament.

The leader of the group, Ramiz Mehdiyev, controls most of the
government bodies, including the NAP. There are few districts in
Azerbaijan in which the head of the district executive authorities or
the local NAP boss is not known for being close to Mehdiyev.

Group of Aliyev and the Pasayevs

Another group determined to get the majority of the seats in
parliament is the one led by [Azerbaijani President Ilham] Aliyev and
the Pasayevs [relatives of the president’s wife]. Although Aliyev is
formally the head of state, it is unlikely that all the candidates of
the authorities will be chosen on the basis of his wishes. Probably,
the president will have to reckon with the major powers within the
authorities. However, this does not mean that Ilham Aliyev, his wife
Mehriban Aliyeva, who has started to exert serious influence on
political processes, and her father Arif Pasayev will remain mere
onlookers. According to incoming reports, the people in question are
determined to secure seats for themselves in parliament and are also
preparing to run their own candidates in the elections. Admittedly,
this group, too, is capable of exerting serious influence on the
processes within the authorities and will try to get the results they
want from the elections.

Group of western Azerbaijanis

The third force, which does not lag behind the first two neither in
terms of resources, nor in terms of ambitions, is the grouping of
western Azerbaijanis. It is led by Azerbaijani state officials who
were born in western Azerbaijan [Armenia]. The group is currently
under serious attack from Mehdiyev.

It seems that this group, too, has chosen taking control of the
parliament as a means of defending and maintaining its positions
within the authorities. The group enjoys major support in both the
NAP and districts, although it lags behind Ramiz Mehdiyev in this
regard.

Group of ministers with special status

There are several ministers within the government who have special
status. It appears that they, too, are seriously interested in the
elections. [Minister of Economic Development] Farhad Aliyev,
[Transport Minister] Ziya Mammadov, [MP and Ilham Aliyev’s uncle]
Calal Aliyev and [Chairman of the State Customs Committee] Kamaladdin
Heydarov are among them. There are reports that these people will
support certain candidates in the elections. They will not run a
candidate in each precinct, but their candidates will have enough
resources to carry out a major election campaign.

Group of government supporters

In addition to the groups mentioned above, there are numerous
pro-government parties which back the position of the government.
They, too, want to be represented in parliament and hope for help
from the government during the elections. In turn, the government
needs to support them to create an impression of multiparty elections
and to reward them for being pro-government.

In such a situation and with four months left till the elections, it
looks improbable that the groupings within the authorities will reach
a consensus. Ilham Aliyev’s will is not strong enough, nor does the
bitterness of rivalry between the groupings allow that.

What awaits the authorities?

This situation does not bode well for the authorities because it is
unlikely that Ilham Aliyev will be able to put one of the groupings
within the authorities in its place. Nobody would like to see a group
wielding reasonable financial resources opposing him in the run-up to
the elections. Aliyev may, as Ali Ahmadov said, let the elections
decide the outcome. This will divide the votes cast for the
authorities, who have already fallen into disrepute, and will
reinforce the fight between the groupings within the authorities.

Ilham Aliyev has limited capability to change the situation. It seems
that this is the main reason why Ilham Aliyev rejected proposals to
change the composition of electoral commissions. It is because he
hopes that the elections will be rigged.