Tajik newspaper looks at “conflict of interests” between Russia and America

Najot, Dushanbe
2 Jun 05

In an article entitled “Andijon in the shadow of Kyrgyz developments”,
a member of the Islamic Rebirth Party of Tajikistan, Hikmatullo
Saifullozoda, says that the collision of Russian and US interests
appears to have reached a new high. He said the USA had expressed
concern over Uzbek government forces firing at protesters in
Andijon. The following is an excerpt from the article by the head of
administration of the Islamic Rebirth Party of Tajikistan, Hikmatullo
Saifullozoda, published in the Tajik newspaper Najot on 2 June 2005;
subheadings as published:

Conflict of interests: sine qua non

Recent developments inside the CIS countries and beyond are seen by
most of analysts and political scientists as a natural and inevitable
phenomenon, although these developments have been more or less
varied. Meanwhile, the foreign media, especially the Russian media,
in their reports indicate that most of the events of the last three
years at different locations signify a gradual erosion of the area of
Russian interests. If we scrutinise the issue from the geopolitical
standpoint we will encounter a collision of greater interests in
separate regional developments. It is quite apparent from the changes
in relations and positions of the leaders of the Balkans, the Middle
East, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the Central Asian countries
with regard to the superpowers before and after important events. And
this is not a secret. Although the US and Russian leaders often declare
themselves to be strategic partners, but it is unlikely that their will
have no disagreement over their nations’ present and new interests.

Ferghana Valley: heartland of crisis

The Fergana Valley is a region which has for decades been attracting
the attention of many researchers and international political
circles. Though it was divided between three countries – Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – during the Soviet period, they could never
change the spiritual and political nature of this region. That’s why
any development in this region is bound to influence the neighbouring
countries.

The political situation which lately seemed unstable in the Ferghana
Valley, the southern part of Kyrgyzstan, has inevitably brought about
a serious change in the country. The leadership of our neighbouring
country – Kyrgyzstan – has left the country after a popular uprising,
officially refusing to retain the power. This act has been differently
evaluated from different sides. Some circles considered it to be “Askar
Akayev’s weakness in his inability to immediately use force”. But most
of political scientists and analysts appreciated the intellectual
ability of the former Kyrgyz president and his good decision to
prevent bloodshed. [Passage omitted: Akayev has given an interview
to the Russian newspaper Argumenty i fakty]

North-south conflict in Kyrgyzstan

In another point, the former president expressed concern about the
relations and resistances of his country’s southern and northern
regions. The analysts also consider the difference in the morale
and living conditions of people of the north and the south as one of
significant factors of political conflicts in this country, which in
turn depends on the unique spiritual atmosphere in the Ferghana Valley.

Neighbouring regimes unpleased with Kyrgyz developments

Now a question arises as to why most authorities in the neighbouring
countries did not formally declare their position on the situation
in Kyrgyzstan. And in a diplomatic manner they proclaimed it to be
“an internal affair” of the neighbouring country, only referring to
one side of the argument, that is calling it either good or bad. From
these statements one can only conclude that they did not expect
such developments in Kyrgyzstan. Perhaps they may not tolerate this
development or may not be pleased with change of power in this manner
in the country.

Pointing the finger at Islamic extremism

However, the protests in Andijon and other parts of Uzbekistan drew the
attention of political and diplomatic circles of countries far removed
from Uzbekistan and those near it, especially the USA and Russia. The
reason for this attention is clear: the problem of Russia’s ongoing
presence and the expansion of American influence in the Central Asia
depends on the outcome of developments in the Ferghana Valley. As
I have stated in one of my analytical notes, Russia’s diplomacy had
been failing for the last few years, but this was not much felt in
regard to America. This kind of developments in different regions,
especially in the CIS countries, can in no way satisfy the Russian
political circles. Therefore the Russian authorities have in many
cases evaluated the Andijon protests as “foreign intervention”. But
they do not clearly say whose intervention this was. They only speak
about Islam and Islamic extremists and these groups are mainly blamed
as possible culprits.

Russia’s support of Uzbek regime

Similar statements have also been made during the developments in
Kyrgyzstan, which is a way of diverting the public opinion from the
main causes of the events. I think the developments in Kyrgyzstan
have to some extent turned out in Russia’s favour. Therefore Russia’s
indirect support for the current Uzbek government’s position in
resolving the Andijon issue is apparent. The Russian Foreign Ministry
right from the beginning of protests in Andijon expressed support for
the government of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan was also reportedly one of
the main topics of discussions between Vladimir Putin and Nursultan
Nazarbayev in Chelyabinsk. The chairman of the committee of the Russian
parliament on the CIS countries Andrey Kokoshin considers the use of
force to suppress the protests in Uzbekistan right and justifiable.

We remember that when the crowds in Kyrgyzstan had apparently been
destroying shops and stores, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin,
who was in Armenia at the time, advised against using force and said
that all problems should be solved in a peaceful way. But he quickly
recognised the new government.

Firm stance, tough measures

Islom Karimov in one of his press conferences on the Andijon protests
said that nobody could prevent “me from doing things in my chosen
way”. Attempts to repeat the Kyrgyz developments in Andijon are
apparentý Without financial assistance from abroad these groups
could not prepare so seriouslyý A third force may take advantage of
efforts by some countries to impose democracy on Central Asia. This
force is radical Islam.

There have been two kinds of positions towards the protests in
Uzbekistan. One deals with the events being instigated by organised
extremist groups and the other is about violation of human rights by
government agencies. The authorities of Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan
and Tajikistan have clearly shown their positions towards the first
stance. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the candidate for
the vice-presidency of Kyrgyzstan Feliks Kulov, and Afghan Foreign
Minister Dr Abdollah.

Tajik civil war a good lesson

But it is also necessary to bring up some points made by Secretary
of Security Council of Tajikistan Amirqul Azimov in one of his
interviews. He said that developments in Tajikistan in 1992 turned
out differently. Had the Tajik authorities taken a firm stand and
tough measures to eliminate “a bunch of extremists” at that time,
there would have been no five years of bloody civil war.

Had it not been the very Amirqul Azimov who was responsible for
the investigation of the incidents in 1990s as a prosecutor? And
proceeding from the interests of his group and his circles put the
seal of “regionalism and Islam” on those incidents, was not he thus
exacerbating the situation? Today it is apparent from his words that he
still cannot accept the methods of consolidation and tolerance. These
words come at the same time when the president of Tajikistan, Emomali
Rahmonov, has for many times called the civil war an imposed one. And
the sides of to the peace agreement are loyal to their commitments.

[Passage omitted: excerpts from speeches by a representative of the
Uzbek party, Ozod Dehqonlar, Nigora Hidoyatulloh]

Do not look for `foreign hand’

The authorities of most of the CIS countries, especially in Central
Asia, should search for ways of solving socio-economic problems of
their countries and ensure justice and the truth at elections instead
of “searching for foreign involvement”.

Unfortunately as it is visible, the experience of Tajikistan and its
peace agreement has not become a lesson for some of the Central Asian
countries and separate circles of the country. And they still try to
use forefathers’ methods to tackle problems. Some of them do not seem
to understand that the course of developments is indispensable and the
geopolitical orientations can not remain invariant. The governments
also cannot keep their political orientation unchanged, but the change
of orientation is useful only with keeping national interests intact.

Greater reliance on Russia

The Uzbek authorities now rely more on Russia’s support, though they
have several times changed their position in the past. The USA,
Britain, Germany, the European Union and the UN have asked for an
international commission to enquire into the incidents in Andijon. But
the Uzbek authorities have not accepted the international request.

Why did Uzbekistan undertake fully independent policies in the recent
past and assist foreign investors in getting domineering positions
in the Central Asian market? And why now it is not pleased with the
presence of the Western countries in the region?

Why do Russia and Uzbekistan consider Islam as a threat and a factor
of instability in the region? Why does not the international community
isolate Uzbekistan like Belarus? This and many other questions have to
be answered. But I believe that the conflict of Russian and American
interests in the region has reached a new level. Although the US
government voiced concern over the shooting at the demonstrators in
Andijon, its decision that Islom Karimov has to undertake political
reform in his country and make “his regime more liberal” comes
too late.

Hikmatullo Sayfullozoda

Head of administration of the Islamic Rebirth Party of Tajikistan

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