Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
June 17, 2005, Friday

GABALA RADAR: A CHIP IN POLITICAL GAMES

SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 21, June 15 – 21, 2005, pp.
1, 3

by Dzhasur Mamedov

Railroad echelons of 15 platform cars with military hardware and
munitions of the Russian military base in Adjaria (Georgia) left
Batumi for Armenia in late May. Official Baku hit the roof.

To quote a source from the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus, “the
echelon with military hardware and munitions was sent in accordance
with the plan of withdrawal of surplus munitions and military hardware
from the Batumi base in Georgia, the one charted several months ago
i.e. before completion of the Russian-Georgian talks over the date
of withdrawal of bases from Batumi and Akhalkalaki.”

Director of the Presidential Administration, Dmitry Medvedev, travelled
to Yerevan to discuss withdrawal of the bases from Georgia.

So far unconfirmed official reports indicate that Russia plans to move
at least 40 tanks of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus to Armenia.

Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan sent a note to Russia on May 23. The
note was served by Foreign Minister, Elmar Mamedjarov ,to Russian
Charge d’Affaires in baku, Pyotr Burdykin. The document expresses
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s worries over statements of some military
and political leaders of Russia concerning the transfer of a part of
the military hardware from Georgia to Armenia. Foreign Ministry hopes
that Moscow will abandon its plans to transfer some military hardware
and munitions to Armenia “thus reiterating its interest in security
and stability in the region, preservation of trust and traditional
relations of friendship and neighborly relations between Azerbaijan
and Russia.”

Burdykin served the Russian Foreign Ministry’s answer on June 2.
According to the diplomat, the equipment in question is to be
transferred “from one Russian military base to another.” It is not
to be directed against Azerbaijan.

The diplomat pointed out that Russia was “forced” to rapidly withdraw
its troops from Georgia and that was why some of the military hardware
could end up on Russian military bases in Armenia. It did not mean
their transfer to Yerevan, Burdykin emphasized.

“It will aggravate the military-political situation in the region and
throughout the world,” Colonel Ramiz Melikov of the PR Department of
the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry said. Melikov added that it would
increase the risk of a new war in the Caucasus.

“Arming Armenia with new military hardware will have a negative effect
on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement,” Deputy Foreign Minister
Araz Azimov added.

Khalaf Khalafov, another Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan,
mentioned the illegitimate transition of almost $1 billion worth of
weapons from Russia to Armenia several years ago. Khalafov said that
Azerbaijan had made its firm position plain then. Saying that the
Caucasus (its southern part) was a region the Treaty on Conventional
Arms in Europe applied to, Khalafov urged all signatories to abstain
from the moves undermining stability and security.

Novruz Mamedov, chief of the international department of the
presidential apparatus, is of the same opinion. Mamedov believes that
what Russia is doing collides with the objective of fortification
of regional stability and with dynamic advancement of international
relations. Russia may lose respect in the eyes of the region and that
will weaken its positions, he said.

Murtus Aleskerov, Chairman of the Parliament of Azerbaijan, called
transfer of Russian bases from Georgia to Armenia unacceptable.

Vafa Guluzade, former advisor for foreign political matters and
political scientist, praises readiness of the Kremlin to contemplate
withdrawal of its bases from Georgia. “Withdrawal of the bases will
benefit Azerbaijan too, because we have close contacts with Georgia
and – through it – with Turkey,” he said.

As for the Kremlin’s intention to move some military hardware to
Armenia, the political scientist does not think that Russian leaders
are left with any other choice. “Military hardware of Russian military
bases in Georgia is hopelessly outdated. It is scrap metal in fact,”
Guluzade said. “Russia does not need it. As for Armenia, it has this
scrap metal in such quantities that a little bit more will not play
any noticeable role.”

The move of the military hardware in question to Armenia does collide
with provisions of the Treaty on Conventional Arms in Europe, but
neither the OSCE nor the West in general object because they are
fully aware of its uselessness.

In other words, presence of the military hardware in question in
Armenia is not going to have any negative consequences for Azerbaijan,
the political scientist said. “Azerbaijan does not intend to go
to war, and neither does Armenia intend to attack us,” he said.
“Moreover, quite soon now (when Russia is finally out of the region)
these countries will make peace, and all Azerbaijani territories
currently occupied will be returned to Baku.”

Major General Dadash Rzayev, ex-defense minister who is currently
involved with the Military-Scientific Center of the Azerbaijani
Defense Ministry, is convinced that new armaments in Armenia will
wreck stability and peace in the region “As I see it, Russia is bent
on sending the military hardware to Armenia because it perceives the
latter as the regional gendarme. Hence all this stalling for time in
the process of the Karabakh settlement.”

Rzayev refused to offer an opinion on what turn the events would take
now. He is convinced, nevertheless that, “Arming itself, Armenia
runs the risk of finding itself in isolation both in the Caucasus
and throughout the world.”

“Transfer of military hardware is not the question at this point. The
matter concerns transfer of munitions only,” Defense Minister
of Armenia Serzh Sarkisjan told the newspaper Aikakan Zhamanak,
commenting on Chief of the General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky’s words that
some military hardware would be moved to Armenia.

“Sure, we want the Russian base in Armenia fully outfitted with
munitions,” Sarkisjan said. Asked about the possibility of transfer of
military hardware from the bases in Georgia to Armenia, the minister
said, “Military hardware has not even been discussed yet. If the
transfer takes place, however, it is not going to mean appearance of
a new Russian military base in Armenia.” The minister did not specify
the quantity of munitions to be brought to Armenia or the date of
their shipments.

Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia, Vardan Oskanjan, says that Yerevan
and Moscow are not discussing transfer of troops from Georgia to
Armenia but possibility of that cannot be ruled out.

Transfer of a part of Russian military hardware is subject to
the bilateral accord on military cooperation and establishment of
Russian military bases and armaments quotas specified by the Treaty on
Conventional Arms in Europe, according to Colonel Seiran Sakhsuvarjan,
Press Secretary of the Armenian defense minister, Sakhsuvarjan,
denies signing of any new documents on the subject and says that
deployment of troops has not been discussed so far.

Official Baku may revise the Gabala Center Lease Accord with
Moscow because of the transfer of military bases from Georgia to
Armenia, to quote a source from Doctrine, Center of Military Research
(Azerbaijan). Its specialists say that Baku may initiate the revision
in the near future already.

“In any case, existence of the Russian military base (Gabala Center)
in Azerbaijan worries NATO,” a spokesman for the Center said. “The
Alliance is determined to control the information compiled by the
Center pending completion of the lease in 2012. Ecological monitoring
will be executed as well.”

According to the Center, Azerbaijan is sending a team of
representatives of the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry to
Moscow to clarify the situation with withdrawal of the Russian bases
from Georgia. The future of the Gabala radar may be brought up in the
talks. Sources in the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry say meanwhile that
bilateral consultations between foreign ministries of Azerbaijan and
Georgia are already under way.

Experts attach importance to Mamedjarov’s statement, “We have certain
methods of preventing actions like that on Russia’s part. It is too
early yet to raise our voice. We will wait for completion of the
Russian-Georgian talks, study the treaty between Moscow and Tbilisi,
and act afterwards.”

ORIGINAL-LANGUAGE: RUSSIAN