Armenian opposition deadlocked as authorities accept constitutional changes

Haykakan Zhamanak, Yerevan
17 Jun 05

Text of Naira Zograbyan’s report by Armenian newspaper Haykakan
Zhamanak on 17 June headlined “Deadlock for the opposition”

By accepting the main suggestions of the Venice Commission, the
Armenian authorities have in fact driven the opposition into deadlock.

The point is that the opposition had been saying for already a year
that they agreed to all the suggestion of the Venice Commission on the
draft constitution, and since the authorities had rejected the joint
suggestions of the opposition and the Venice Commission, they would
turn the constitutional referendum into a vote of confidence in
[Armenian President Robert] Kocharyan. The Armenian authorities had
little choice but to accept those suggestions almost without
reservations at the insistence of the Venice Commission.

At present, after these enforced compromises, it is difficult to say
if Kocharyan himself will become the person who will foil the
referendum. Especially that the new constitution will come into force
after the next [parliamentary] elections and the authorities, taking
advantage of the super powers granted to the president by the acting
constitution, still have a chance to form another puppet parliament
which will not be able to fulfil provisions even of the most
democratic constitution. For this reason and because of this latest
“democratic” concession of the Armenian authorities, the opposition’s
plan to replace the authorities is in danger since it relied on the
constitutional referendum.

It is difficult to imagine how the opposition is going to stage
rallies and call on people to vote against the constitution which
takes into account the main demands of the opposition and the world
community. Even if the opposition manages to spur a popular uprising,
the world community will support the opposition and stop Kocharyan
from suppressing the opposition, and Kocharyan will get carte blanche
to protect his main obligations against Europe [sentence as
received]. What will the opposition do in this case?

An independent [as received, actually opposition] MP, Mayak Ovanesyan,
believes that the “opposition for the sake of opposition” slogan is
nonsense.

“If all the main suggestion of the Venice Commission have indeed been
accepted, I cannot imagine how the opposition will encourage people to
vote down the constitution,” the independent member of the opposition
[as received] said.

The secretary of the [opposition] Justice bloc, Viktor Dallakyan,
whose major challenge is to turn the constitutional referendum into a
vote of confidence in Kocharyan, does not think that having reached
agreement with international structures, the authorities have
safeguarded themselves.

“In spite of everything, even if we accept that an absolutely
democratic constitution will be put to vote, our plans to turn that
process into the change of the government will remain valid. If the
draft constitution is bad, we shall call on people to vote against it
and to turn it into a vote of confidence in the authorities. If it is
good, we shall explain to the people that the draft was suggested by
the opposition and the authorities made enforced compromises. In that
case we shall call on people to vote for the draft, explaining that
with this constitution will split the authorities and they will weaken
and that this will be the best opportunity to get rid of the criminal
administration. In any case, the authoritarian nature of the regime
will not change,” Viktor Dallakyan said.

Certainly, this option of the opposition may not be considered
illogical. But it is clear that the chances to realize this option are
slim and the opposition needs to make more efforts to reach its goal.