The Daily Star, Lebanon
June 27 2005

Time for the second phase of the Cedar Revolution

By Kamal Dib
Commentary by
Monday, June 27, 2005

The world community will be surprised that the revolution that
occurred in Lebanon on March 14, 2005, did not simply dissipate with
the advent of the Parliamentary election as each warlord looked
inward after his own clan. While this could be true of the
traditional leadership that rode the wave of protest and took on the
“Opposition” tag, the civil society continued the march and will soon
impose new demands on the elected Parliament. Such popular demands
include transparency, political cleanliness, accountability, modern
good governance, investigation into corruption, civil rights and
freedoms, and secular legislation.

Now that the 2005 Lebanese Parliamentary election is completed, the
choice of leaders for the executive arm of government that meets the
ambitions of post-March 14 Lebanon is crucial. So is the choice of
individuals who run the public sector. The world community will
indeed be watching the next step in the Cedar Revolution, as the
post-election Lebanon will be a test for the entire Middle East
region. For the United States, it will be a almost a costless
peaceful transformation of a Middle-Eastern society without Norman
Schwarzkopf and the Marines.

Why, the Lebanese are modern and educated people who travel the
world, and whose civil society organizations are as strong and
advanced as what one gets in France or the United Kingdom.

So far, Lebanon has been cursed with outdated leadership based on
sectarian and regional constituencies. This conservative class
believes that the global situation exerts only a secondary influence
on Lebanon’s archaic politics and economy, and then only slowly.
Still, many believe that talk about a new leadership is something for
the next generation to handle, and that things in Lebanon will be as
usual: de facto cantons and mini-states along largely sectarian lines
complete with media establishments, social services, and even
paramilitary security.

The reality is that Lebanon has already absorbed globalization
influences in many aspects of daily life: business, the media,
education, social customs, travel, etc., and that a new citizenry has
emerged from the womb of the civil movement of “the Beirut Spring”
(similar to the 1968 Prague Spring that defied the Soviet invasion).

In a world of new technologies, converging international markets and
trading arrangements, and world scrutiny of oppressive regimes, the
external impact on the political and economic environment of Lebanon
can no longer be ignored.

The increasing democratization of Lebanon, away from the archaic
absolutist politicians of the past (the Begs and the emirs), is
bringing forward concepts like transparency, respect, secularization,
pluralism, and universal social services.

Yes, it will be the duty of the new leadership to secure electricity
around the clock, and to establish environmentally sound public
utilities and sewage treatment – matters that are taken for granted
in most countries. It is the nitty-gritty of everyday needs that
Lebanon wants, not Don Quixotes who discuss regional and
international politics and behave like world leaders in a tiny
country with slightly over 3 million people.

Both government and business in Lebanon have a joint responsibility
in adjusting to the information age and in supporting young people in
knowledge acquisition, skills development and innovation. The vision
of government and business should focus on what is currently needed
to achieve better social services for citizens and better
productivity conditions for business, and a willingness to examine
new models for learning and development.

The vision of government and business should also influence the
Lebanese society to take a fresh look at the prospects of the future
and not be buried in the tragedies and taboos of the past. While it
is easy to blame the traditional leaders, it is a cruel reminder that
the public sectarian mindset is the one responsible for the
perpetuation of the political folklore. Whither Totalitarianism
Empowerment of the citizen to make choices is the current trend
around the world; having more gadgets in the hands of dictatorships
to oppress their peoples is not. Saddam Hussein used oil revenues to
acquire the latest weaponry and intelligence equipment, but the
Iraqis were made worse off; the Lebanese government in the mid-1990
purchased telecommunication equipment to eavesdrop on phone calls;
and many Arab governments control Internet content and build barriers
in the airspace and land borders to prevent entry of critical TV
channels, radio stations, and newspapers.

Lebanese leaders cannot control people anymore and will have to deal
with different mindsets and new psychologies. For example, the
Parliamentary election was a lesson to Hizbullah, when its leaders
called on the Shiites of Beirut to vote for the Hariri list, but the
outcome was a massive vote to Hariri’s opponent Najah Wakim. Analysts
saw this as a rebuff to Hizbullah from an urbane and educated Shiite
Muslim community who will not be told how to vote en masse. Many
traditional leaders lost their Parliamentary seat to new faces, and
the non-traditionalist Michel Aoun won a respectable number of seats
among the Christian population although his primary mover is the call
for a secular Lebanon. The Challenges To be successful, the new
Lebanese leadership will have to deal with these challenges that will
have a profound impact on the future of the country:

(1) Women’s rights: the rising number and quality of women in
Lebanese society requires opening the door in a male-dominated
political system. While the current ratio of women to men in labour
market participation is 7 against 13, it is expected that the ratio
will be equal in a generation, considering health, education, and
life expectancy. Can it be acceptable that women make up only 27
percent of the employed workforce and 2 percent of Parliament, while
over 50 percent of university graduates in Lebanon are women? Is it
acceptable that women have no civil rights before the law and still
have to abide by middle-age rules of the clergy that favor men at all
times?

(2) Sectarianism and Diversity: there is a need to stress positive
outcomes in an ethnically and religiously diverse Lebanon. With
slightly over 3 million people, Lebanon is one of the most diverse
countries in the world. Arab and western media can poke fun at the
antics of the Lebanese conflict (e.g., how the Lebanese were “at each
other’s throat”), but one can only point at other countries in the
Arab world and Europe where homogenous religious and ethnic
populations are the norm, hence no explosive demographic mixture.
What is happening in Lebanon is a test-case for humanity and for the
dialogue of civilizations between Muslims and Christians and between
East and West.

The Arabic character is one of many manifestations of Lebanese
society as visitors to Beirut notice the western air of the
Mediterranean city, the multilingual abilities of the people, the
myriad of religions and sects, the prospering Armenian and Kurdish
communities, and the presence of half a million guest workers and
Palestinian refugees. Lebanon has lost much energy and talent in the
past due to religious discrimination and the lack of appreciation and
respect to diversity. In fact, one could calculate the economic cost
of the Lebanese war (1975-1990) due to the fanaticism and
discrimination in the labor market, where Beirut was split in half
and employers would not hire or do business with members of other
communities.

(3) Youth: the role of young Lebanese in globalization and its impact
on the local economy and on Lebanese society and culture, especially
to stem the brain drain. Lebanon suffers from emigration and brain
drain. Almost a million Lebanese have left Lebanon since 1975, most
of them never returned. These include thousands of professionals,
graduates, skilled workers, and tradesmen. Measuring the opportunity
cost of this loss against remittances sent back by these emigrants
shows that the gap between cost and benefit is huge.

The shift from the traditional leader to the leader of the future
entails moving from controlling to empowerment and offer of choice,
and from creating conformity with each religious group to valuing
diversity among all Lebanese, and from working through the chain of
command to making decisions at the lowest levels, and from a domestic
to an international focus. The new crop of politicians in Lebanon
should move from resisting change to becoming leaders of change.

Kamal Dib is a Canadian economist of Lebanese descent, and author of
several books on Lebanon and the Middle East, most recently “Warlords
and Merchants.” He is a frequent contributor to The Daily Star.