The Messenger, Georgia
July 7 2005

South Caucasus gets armed

All three South Caucasus countries have been spending large sums of
money on armaments recently, leading to concerns among regional
analysts that armed hostilities could renew between Azerbaijan and
Armenia.

In Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliev has overseen a vast increase in
funds allotted to defense – from USD 135 million in 2003 to USD 175
million in 2004 to USD 300 million in 2005. A number of Azeri
politicians including government members have stated that if the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is not resolved soon, they do not rule out
the use of force. Furthermore, Azerbaijan is threatened by the fact
that military material and personnel from the Russian base
Akhalkalaki is headed to the Gyumri base in Armenia. Yerevan itself
has embarked on its own acquisition program, recently purchasing 10
combat jets Su-25 from Slovakia.

For years the Georgian government neglected its own army and the
result was obvious: poorly dressed, poorly armed soldiers, who did
not have basic conditions to train or even stay healthy.
Post-revolution President Mikheil Saakashvili then touted the army as
a leading priority for the country and launched major reforms.

Military reforms are crucially important for the country’s ambitions
to integrate into NATO. However Georgia media reports some observers
in NATO believe Georgia had gone overboard in its procurement
efforts. The newspaper 24 Saati quotes ambassador of Estonia to NATO
Harry Tiido as complaining: “There does not exist a normal program
for weapons buying that considers its appropriate use in the future.
Thus without this, as a result of maintenance current expenses will
grow.”

On the far side of the Caspian, Turkmenistan is reinforcing its own
military, a fact that also troubles Azerbaijan since the two
countries have conflicting views over the division of the Caspian
Sea. The newspaper Kviris Palitra reports that Ukraine recently
announced its willing to provide military assistance in exchange for
natural gas from Turkmenistan. Georgia too provides military material
for Turkmenistan, refurbishing aircraft from the Turkmen airforce in
exchange for debt relief.

To the north there is also concern of increased arms. On Wednesday
Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov reaffirmed at a press
conference in Nalchik that two extra mountain rifle brigades would be
deployed in the North Caucasus following the withdrawal of Russian
military bases from Georgia. One would be deployed in
Karachai-Cherkessia and the other in Dagestan near the
Georgian-Russian border, he said, stressing that they would be well
equipped and staffed by contracted soldiers. Their mission, he said,
would be to liquidate any terrorists on the Georgian-Russian border.

Ivanov is visiting the region as part of an inspection tour, a tour
that a columnist for RosBusinessConsulting described on Tuesday as
designed to “check up on the battle readiness of troops deployed in
the region.”

The news agency says its analysts have seen a “very strange
situation” developing in the North Caucasus. “The federal leadership
is preparing for large-scale military action in the Russian Caucasus.
At the same time, Moscow is not trying to deal with underlying issues
in the Caucasus through peaceful means. To the contrary, one gets the
impression that the federal leaders are purposely trying to provoke
new inter-ethnic conflicts in the region, playing a complicated game
with Western special services,” the columnist says.

Increased support for the military is obvious in Georgia today and a
welcomed change from previous years when weapons, soldiers and
discipline hit rock bottom. There are also immense risks involved
when a pattern of increased military forces is witnessed throughout
the region. It is at this point that regional cooperation and
diplomacy becomes all the more necessary.