LIFTING BLOCKADE OF ARMENIAN-TURKISH TRANSPORT COMMUNICATIONS WILL ADD
0.54% TO GDP

YEREVAN, JULY 13. ARMINFO. The lifting of the blockade of the
Armenian-Turkish transport communication in future will add only 0.54%
or some $20 mln to the GDP of Armenia. The data of the research “The
consequences of the lifting of the blockade of Armenian-Turkish border
on the economy of Armenia” carried out by the Armenian-European Policy
and Legal Advice Center, which was presented in Yerevan, Wednesday.

According to the survey, if the border open, the average annual growth
of employment in Armenia within 5 years will total 1,000 people or
0.08%. The growth of the export from Armenia will annually make up
4.5%, the imports – 2.6%. Growth of domestic selling will make up 0.2%
per year, the annual inflation growth will be 0.13%, the state budget
receipts will grow by 0.7% or 3.4 bln drams (about $7.7 mln) from the
opening of the border. The growth of real investments will be 0.59%,
transport expenditure of Armenian economy will decrease by 5%.

According to Armenian Director of AEPLAC Tigran Jrbashian, the
operation of communications between Armenia and Turkey will allow to
improve the social indices in eastern districts of Turkey, where the
GDP per capita is five times less than in the whole country in
average, and 2.5 times less than in Armenia. In this connection the
release of the blockade of the border should be considered in the
context of regional development, as after Turkey’s accession to the
European Union, similar social-economic indices of its eastern
districts may become a serious problem for EU.

The survey was conducted on the basis of the analysis of 200
macroeconomic indices and 4,225 financial flows in the economy by
modern economic methods. The survey was held from July 2004 to March
2005 by the order of Armenian Government.

To remind, now the trade turnover between Armenia and Turkey because
of inactivity of the border is carried out through Georgia’s
territory. Since 1998 the annual trade turnover between the countries
have been fluctuating $37-40 mln.