The Messenger, Georgia
July 14 2005

Political Analysis: Analyst calls for Russia to regain superpower
status
By M. Alkhazashvili

Not all Georgians are in favor of decreasing Russia’s presence in
Georgian and the former politician turned analyst Aleksandre Chachia
has gone so far as to call on the Kremlin to be more active within
the post-Soviet sphere and to restore its status as a superpower.

“There will be no profitable changes in the post-Soviet sphere until
Russia strengthens its influence over post-Soviet countries – that is
until Russia takes upon itself this new missionary role carrying
global-historical meaning,” Chachia writes in Segodnia Ru, as quoted
by Akhali Taoba.

Chachia served as an advisor to Aslan Abashidze and raised eyebrows
several years ago by agitating in Mengrelia against the central
government; today he is raising eyebrows again by calling on Russia
to establish control over Tbilisi.

“The survival of those people who live in Eurasia is dependent on the
establishment of Russia as a superpower,” he states, adding that if
Russia wants to fulfill this role it must offer an alternative form
of globalization to the modern world.

The first stage in Russia regaining its dominance must involve it
regaining control of the Caucasus, Chachia believes. Control of
Tbilisi entails control of the whole region, he adds, arguing that
“during the last three centuries the Caucasus was under the influence
of the country that had complete control over Tbilisi.”

Given Georgia’s vital strategic importance, Chachia believes it vital
that Georgia agree categorically not to allow the bases of any third
country to be deployed on its territory. He believes that this is in
Georgians’ interest too, as it is “a great risk for such a small
country to support U.S. globalization policy.”

This, he argues, is particularly the case because economically
Georgia is completely linked with Russia and Americans will not be
able replace Russia in this area. “Nothing can be done in the
Georgian economy without Russia,” he states, adding that to cut off
its relations with Russia would be a “catastrophe” for Georgia “that
will destroy the country.”

It is not only for economic reasons that Georgia would be better off
siding with Moscow; Chachia says that as only Russia can settle the
existing problems in Abkhazia and Tskhinvali, by rejecting relations
with Russia the Georgian government would be rejecting the
possibility of resolving the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts.

While taking a pro-Western stance will make it impossible for Georgia
to resolve its current territorial disputes, it could actually open
up a third, Chachia believes, as the West will demand the
repatriation of Meskhi Turks in Javakheti, which will lead to
conflict with local ethnic Armenians and intervention by either
Turkish or Armenian forces, or both.

Alternatively, “if the Georgian government changes the country’s
foreign policy in favor of Russia without spoiling relations with
Washington and Ankara then perhaps it will be possible to improve the
economy and national security situation in the country slowly but
surely.”

A third possibility is that the United States will eventually lose
faith in Mikheil Saakashvili and engineer a new regime change in the
same way as it has “in every banana republic.”

Washington is already preparing an opposition to take over, Chachia
states, adding that he sees this as the most likely scenario.