Azeri pundit links speculation on breakthrough in Karabakh talks to election
ANS TV, Baku
14 Jul 05
Azerbaijani analyst Eldar Namazov has said that none of the Karabakh
settlement proposals put forward so far is in Azerbaijan’s interests.
Commenting on the current status in the Nagornyy Karabakh negotiations
in an interview with the Azerbaijani commercial TV station ANS,
Namazov said that the authorities have failed to bolster up the
country’s position at the negotiating table by means of economic and
political development. Eldar Namazov is one of the leaders of the New
Policy election bloc and former head of the presidential secretariat.
He dismissed suggestions of a possible breakthrough in the negotiations
before the November 2005 parliamentary election in Azerbaijan and also
ruled out the possibility that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
might sign a peace accord during a 26 August meeting in Kazan.
“I am a little sceptic about the heated debate in the run-up to
the election. We have seen this before. When a presidential or
parliamentary election is forthcoming, both sides create the impression
that the conflict will be resolved today or tomorrow,” Namazov said.
“We have repeatedly come across situations of this kind in the run-up
to elections. But it emerged afterwards that there is nothing going
on. Diplomats will not have a real plan on the table until Azerbaijan
turns into a democratic and strong country,” he said.
Other settlement proposals
Namazov, who was personally involved in the Karabakh talks until his
resignation in November 1999, also described the background to the
current situation in the talks and the previously mooted proposals,
including prominent Russian academic Sakharov’s proposal in the 1980s
to stage self-determination referenda both among ethnic Azeris living
in Armenia and ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan, and the attempts
to resolve the conflict by building the main oil export pipeline
via Armenia.
Dozens of various options to resolve the conflict have been put forward
so far, Namazov said. When asked to reveal some of the proposals that
were not made public earlier, Namazov pointed to the idea put forward
by some EU politicians that South Caucasus countries form a union
modelled as the EU and then file a collective EU membership bid. This
might solve territorial disputes in both Georgia and Azerbaijan and
preserve their territorial integrity, Namazov said.
Touching on the agreements reached during the Key-West talks between
the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in 2001, Namazov said: “As far
as I know, there was nothing in our favour there.”
He also criticized the idea of giving Azerbaijan an overland link
with its Naxcivan exclave in return for allowing Armenia to keep
control of the Lacin corridor which connects it with Nagornyy Karabakh.
“When talking about a territorial swap, people have to understand that
this is a wrong expression. No-one is going to give us an inch of their
territory. An issue is the opening of a corridor which will be under,
say, international control. In return, they want to take away our
historical lands. Therefore, I believe that it is not worth discussing
the territorial swap option at all,” the politician told ANS TV.
Namazov also commented on the plans to conduct a referendum in
Nagornyy Karabakh.
“I am aware of this even though I am not taking part in the
negotiations. I sometimes meet Armenian experts at conferences and
unofficial discussions. I generally know what they want. They want
the stage-by-stage settlement to play into their hands. This proposal
suits Azerbaijan but they are saying that the lands should be vacated
and economic cooperation established at the first stage, provided
that the Armenians will hold a referendum in Nagornyy Karabakh, say,
in five years,” Namazov said.
He condemned the referendum idea in the breakaway region.
“What referenda can one hold on an occupied and ethnically cleansed
territory?”
Domestic woes to blame for Karabakh
“If there is no unity in the country and corruption is rife, it means
that we have wasted our opportunity. In fact, diplomats do not resolve
problems. A diplomat can be very skilful but there must be some force
behind him. Azerbaijani diplomats will be successful when Azerbaijan
turns into the strongest country of the region and, for instance, the
Azerbaijani Defence Ministry’s budget is equal to the entire state
budget of Armenia,” Namazov said. Azerbaijan has economic potential
but must undergo democratic changes to realise it, he said.
“Unfortunately, Azerbaijani oil has failed to impact on the Karabakh
issue. The only reason for that is our domestic problems,” he said.
Namazov thinks the Azerbaijani authorities have used the country’s oil
to persuade foreign countries to turn a blind eye to election-rigging,
political prisoners and corruption.
“Because of our shortcomings – corruption, human rights abuses and
election-rigging – we have failed to turn into a strong country. A
country is strong when there is national unity, when the relationship
between the authorities and the opposition is based on the law, when
the authorities and the opposition are united on national issues and
there is economic growth. Azerbaijan has so far failed to achieve
this,” he said.