KARABAKH REFERENDUM NOT SUPPORTED IN BAKU

Pan ARMENIAN Network, Armenia
July 15 2005

Azeri political scientists find that the agreement to conduct
referendum is equivalent to recognizing the independent statehood
of Karabakh.

Mass media resources of Armenia and Azerbaijan are actively discussing
the information spread by “Svoboda” radio station. Referred to an
undisclosed diplomat, the source informed that both parties of Karabakh
conflict have come close to signing a peace treaty which can be signed
already within the coming few months. The plan of the unknown diplomat
met quite a number of opponents both in Baku and in Yerevan.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The source that has informed the radio station
about the content of negotiations with the condition of non-disclosure
of his name states that the scheme of conflict resolution is almost
agreed and its approval is only a matter of a few months. According
to the scheme the Armenian party agrees to return Armenian controlled
security zones to Azerbaijan and Baku agrees to recognize the right
of self-determination of Karabakh people. But according to the
mutual agreement Karabakh people will be able to enjoy the right of
self-determination not now, but after 10 or 15 years. According to the
source, Azerbaijan promises to recognize the legitimacy of Karabakh
status determined by the referendum which is to be conducted after
the return of refugees, opening of all regional communications and
restoration of an atmosphere of mutual trust. It is worth reminding
that a model like this was used not long ago with the case of Southern
Sudan where the North recognized the intermediate status of South
and its right to conduct a referendum after 5 years.

According to the source the political leadership of Azerbaijan
no longer insists on conducting a referendum on the territory of
Azerbaijan. If it is so, we should accept the considerable progress
in the position of Azerbaijan and their ability to take into account
established international norms. In cases like this referendums are
always conducted only in territories that strive to separation and
not on the territories that were once a part of a united state. This
was the case in Eastern Timor and twice in Quebec.

However the information leakage organized though “Svoboda” radio
station has provoked serious anxiety among many in Baku. Virtually all
the responds in the local press bore negative nature. The majority
of Azeri political scientists suppose that the agreement to conduct
referendum in Karabakh is equal to its loss because Azeris have no
doubt that after 15 years Karabakh will again speak out either for
joining to Armenia or for preservation of independent statehood. But
nevertheless the suggested formula can be quite attractive for Aliev
administration. The model in question will enable Aliev to comfortably
stay in power for two presidential periods leaving the solution of the
problem to the next president. It seems this is what the mediators
urge him to. There is no doubt that the speed up of the efforts of
Minsk group co-chairmen is connected with the upcoming parliamentary
elections. Baku political scientists suppose that the mediators demand
concessions from Aliev in return for shutting eyes to the atmosphere
of elections. The West is said to be ready to help the ruling clan to
retain power. However the political scientists think that the consent
of official Baku to sign the “losing agreement” will result in a burst
of public discontent and no one will save the regime in that case.

Aliev has also some other reasons that make him seriously consider
the idea of conducting a referendum in Karabakh. Postponing the
solution of Karabakh status issue, Baku gets though a trifling but
still a chance. The hopes for economic prosperity of Azerbaijan, for
the strengthening of military power and changes in the demographic
situation in the region allow Aliev to think that after 15 years the
situation will be more favorable for Azerbaijan. Then the outcome
of voting will not be that obvious. The mediators actually give a
chance to official Baku to convince the people of Karabakh that they
will feel more happy and protected being a part of Azerbaijan. Here
it is again appropriate to compare the situation with Sudan that is
also rich in oil. Northerners offered Southerners to equally share
the whole profit from oil sales though it is known that the North is
much richer in oil than the South. The Muslim majority actually bribes
southerners who practice Christianity and other national religions.
Mediators suggest Azeris to do the same.

Aliev will hardly create illusions for himself that he will manage to
“buy” the people of Karabakh with the promises for a prosperous life.
But he might have another plan. The variant of conducting a referendum
after 15 years is interesting in the view that within the period of 15
years it will be possible to try to change the demographic composition
of the population. This is why Baku emphatically propagandizes the idea
of starting the Aghdam-Stepanakert-Lachin-Goris-Nakhichevan highway. In
Baku they suppose that the highway which goes right through the center
of Karabakh will enable to start the process of settlement of Azeris
in the surrounding territories. Besides, Aliev may also be attracted
by another circumstance. As it is known in 1998 around 30 percents
of the population of Karabakh were Azeris. All the descendants of
Azeri refugees will claim to take part in the referendum. At the
same time thousands of Armenians, having leaved Karabakh for some
reasons, will not be included in the list of electors. If we take
into account that natality in Azeri families is much higher than in
Armenian families, we can observe a threat of parity in the number
of the real Armenian and virtual Azeri population of Karabakh. Maybe
Ilham Aliev seriously relies also on this factor seriously considering
the issue of conducting referendum in Karabakh.