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An early look at the Oscar field

Entertainment Weekly
Wednesday, July 20, 2005

We analyze the odds for ”All the King’s Men,” ”Broken Flowers,”
”Jarhead,” and more by Dave Karger.

Though Oscar night is still eight months away (March 5, 2006, to be
exact), studio awards strategists are already preparing their plans of
attack. They’d better get busy: Since the first half of the year didn’t
yield much in the way of true contenders, almost all Best Picture
nominees should come from the final five months of the year. As usual,
one or two films may appear out of nowhere (nobody was talking about
Million Dollar Baby or Sideways last July), but here, in alphabetical
order, are the likeliest candidates at this early date.

ALL THE KING’S MEN
Could be a contender… if the political drama directed by Steven
Zaillian (a past Oscar winner for his Schindler’s List screenplay)
elicits topflight performances from Academy faves Sean Penn, Kate
Winslet, and Jude Law. Unless… a remake of a Best Picture winner seems
like too obvious an Oscar ploy. (Dec. 16)

BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Could be a contender… since Annie Proulx’s unorthodox gay-cowboy love
story has landed in the careful hands of director Ang Lee (Crouching
Tiger, Hidden Dragon). Unless… hardcore fans of the short story
complain that the romance between Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal is
too tame. (Dec. 9)

BROKEN FLOWERS
Could be a contender… since the droll-and-droller combination of
director Jim Jarmusch and star Bill Murray can get a jump on Oscar
campaigning, thanks to an early rollout (hey, it worked for Murray in
Lost in Translation, a September release). Unless… voters find it too
strange and small. (Aug. 5)

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