Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part A (Russia)
July 25, 2005, Monday
A MUSLIM AS PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA?
SOURCE: Ekspert, No. 27, July 18, 2005, pp. 66-69
by Valery Egozarian, head of the Inter-Ethnic Relations Center at the
Social Forecasting Institute
Our Constitution specifies that the person elected as head of state
may be of any ethnicity, and – no less relevantly, perhaps – any
religion. Could Orthodox Russia, with its ancient Christian
traditions, its spiritual culture and art permeated with
Christianity, elect a non-Christian as president? The very question
seems unrealistic and improper at first. But let’s not jump to
conclusions.
For a start, let’s look at the membership numbers of Russia’s
religious faiths and their competitive chances in elections. These
numbers are approximate, of course, but it is indisputable that only
Muslims can offer real political competition to the Orthodox in the
foreseeable future.
In the present circumstances, with tension in Christian-Muslim
relations being artificially escalated worldwide, considering the
active participation of Russia’s Muslims in Russian politics is no
idle exercise. In speaking of active participation, we mean not just
voting in Duma elections, regional leader elections, and presidential
elections, but creating a powerful Islamic political lobby group
capable of engaging in real politics, consolidating its voters based
on religious faith, and getting its own candidate elected as head of
state.
Is it realistic to imagine Russia electing a Muslim president?
Tackling the question head-on, there seems to be every reason to say
no: a simple numerical comparison of 69 million Orthodox Christians
and 7.5 million Muslims does not favor the later. Nevertheless, it’s
not all that simple. For one thing, neither the Christian nor the
Muslim communities of Russia are entirely straightforward in terms of
religious identification.
Of Russia’s 145 million people, 15% are atheists and 14% are
religious but don’t belong to any particular faith: that’s a total of
about 33 million. For these people, religious distinctions (not
ethnic distinctions!) are not a priority; all the same, we can assume
that this part of the population would not be so indifferent to the
religious faith of an elected president.
Next, let’s look at the ambiguous situation of Russia’s Orthodox
Christians.
The official website of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) offers no
statistics about the number of Orthodox Christians in Russia or
elsewhere. Neither do state statistical agencies have this date.
Various estimates fluctuate between 50 million and 80 million people.
These figures are probably inaccurate. First of all, the number of
parishes is inconsistent with such a number of believers. How many
worshippers per parish? Probably an average of around 500, or much
fewer in rural areas. But then Russia would need to have at least
100,000 parishes for even 50 million believers! The Patriarch’s
report puts the number of parishes at around 14,000. Therefore, the
number of true Orthodox Christian believers is around 7 million.
Polls done by the Social Forecasting Institute indicate that of the
respondents who identify as Orthodox Christians, 10.7% go to church
regularly. The figures are almost identical.
But observing the Ten Commandments is by no means the same thing as
electing a president. Thus, if it comes to a choice between a Muslim
and a Christian, we can confidently supplement these 7 million
Orthdox believers by adding their family members, “passive”
believers, and Russia’s million Armenians – not Orthodox, but
Christians, with their own historical considerations regarding Islam.
Given that not all these believers and family members are over 18,
the number of voters in Russia to whom a candidate’s religion matters
a great deal is probably around 25 million – that’s around 22% of
citizens with the right to vote.
What’s more, the demographic situation in Russia and the other
Orthodox former Soviet states is catastrophic. Our population is
melting away.
In 1900, 8.5% of the world’s population was Orthodox Christian; by
2025, this figure is predicted to be 4.9%. In 1980, Orthodox
countries produced 16.4% of global GDP; by the end of the 20th
Century, that figure had fallen to 6.2%. The crisis of Orthodoxy is
plain to see.
Between 1989 and 1999, the proportion of Muslims in Russia rose from
8% to 10%; in 1959, it had only been 6%. The Russian Council of
Muftis claims that there are now 20 million Muslims in our country.
This figure may be greatly exaggerated, but it’s worth noting that
according to various analysts, Russia now has around 20 million
illegal aliens, a great many of whom are Muslims from Central Asia
and Azerbaijan. A little more, and there will no longer be any formal
grounds for describing Russia as an essentially Christian state.
If the number of Muslims in Russia continues growing at the present
rate, a century from now their proportion of Russia’s population will
double. According to forecasts, by 2100 Muslims are likely to make up
16-18% of the population: that is, around 20 million people. If the
number of Orthodox Christians continues to decline, by that time – or
possibly earlier – these two parts of Russia’s population will be
equal: the Orthodox and Muslims.
Some of Russia’s Muslims have been politically active for a number of
years, uniting on the basis of their faith. There are nationwide
political organizations such as the Pan-Russian Islamic Congress,
Refakh (Prosperity), Mejlis (Gathering), and the Islamic Committee. A
new movement called Russian Islamic Heritage held its inaugural
congress on March 22. Among the 20 public organizations with the
right to field candidates in presidential elections is Nur (Light), a
nationwide public movement. The Muslims of Russia movement has
already tried to score campaign points by reporting that it might
join the Communist Party’s bloc.
And this niche will only increase. Therefore, the idea of Russia
having a Muslim president doesn’t seem so improbable after all.
Translated by Pavel Pushkin
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress