Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
The Jamestown Foundation
July 28 2005
ARMENIAN OPPOSITION CONSIDERS SUPPORTING CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM
By Emil Danielyan
Thursday, July 28, 2005
The Armenian authorities have been given a major boost in their
standoff with the opposition with the Council of Europe’s effective
endorsement of their draft amendments to Armenia’s controversial
post-Soviet constitution. Experts from the Venice Commission have
declared that the amendments’ passage at a referendum expected this
November would contribute significantly to the country’s
democratization and advance its European integration.
The move created a serious dilemma for the Armenian opposition, which
had hoped to use the vote for another attempt to depose President
Robert Kocharian. It also caused a rift between moderate and more
radical opposition groups — another welcome development for the
ruling regime.
Reform of the constitution, criticized for giving the president of
the republic disproportionate powers, was one of the conditions for
Armenia’s accession to the Council of Europe in January 2001.
Kocharian’s first attempt to expedite it ended in failure when his
package of amendments did not win sufficient popular support at a
referendum in May 2003. Kocharian and his three-party governing
coalition have since been revising that package to make it more
acceptable to the domestic public and the Council of Europe.
They avoided making major changes in the constitutional draft until
facing strong criticism and warnings from the Venice Commission as
well as the Parliamentary Assembly of the Strasbourg-based
pan-European body in June. Armenian officials pledged to further
curtail the sweeping presidential powers before sending a revised
draft to Strasbourg on July 7. The Venice Commission said in a July
22 report that Yerevan has honored those commitments, concluding that
the final version of the proposed constitutional changes constitutes
“a good basis for ensuring the compliance of the Armenian
Constitution with the European standards in the fields of respect for
human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.” The commission
expressed hope that the opposition will be “mature” enough to help
the authorities enact those changes.
But Armenia’s largest opposition group, the Artarutiun (Justice)
alliance, is clearly unhappy with the latest draft and is demanding
additional changes. The first and foremost of them relates to the
formation of the government. The authorities have agreed to strip the
Armenian president of his discretionary right to sack the prime
minister and his cabinet. Only the parliament would have such
authority in the future. But opposition leaders say this change would
be nullified by another draft amendment that empowers the president
to dissolve the National Assembly if it twice rejects his prime
ministerial nominees.
Artarutiun also wants serious limitations on the presidential
authority to appoint and sack virtually all judges as well as a
constitutional provision mandating direct elections of Yerevan’s
mayor, who is currently named by Kocharian. The latter is only
prepared to allow the mayor’s appointment by an elected municipal
council.
The opposition demands have already been dismissed as “ridiculous” by
Tigran Torosian, the deputy parliament speaker and a senior
representative of the ruling coalition. Torosian warned on July 22
that Artarutiun will commit “political suicide” if it campaigns
against the reform. Indeed, the opposition bloc now risks finding
itself at loggerheads with the Council of Europe and perhaps major
European governments that hold sway in the organization.
Hanrapetutiun (Republic), the most radical of nine parties aligned in
Artarutiun, has made it clear that it will not support the reform
under any circumstances.. The party, led by the firebrand former
prime minister Aram Sarkisian, has publicly attacked its opposition
allies for taking a more conciliatory approach.
There is clearly little the opposition can gain in return from
endorsing the reform and somehow legitimizing a regime repeatedly
criticized by the West for falsifying elections and abusing human
rights. An amended constitution is unlikely to have any bearing on
the root cause of Armenia’s problems: chronic vote rigging. The
Council of Europe, however, continues to put the emphasis on the
passage of new laws rather than the enforcement of the existing ones
that already provide for free and fair elections. No wonder that
Armenia is now hardly more democratic than it was before joining the
organization.
Opposition support is essential for the success of the constitutional
reform. To pass, the constitutional amendments have to be approved by
a majority of referendum participants that make up at least one-third
of Armenia’s 2.4 million eligible voters. Clearing that threshold
requires a high degree of political consensus that is currently
absent. Besides, many Armenians seem apathetic to the issue. A recent
opinion poll found that less than one-third of Yerevan residents
would likely take part in the constitutional referendum if it were
held now.
Some local observers believe that the only way for the authorities to
ensure a desired outcome of the referendum is to falsify its results.
And this is what opposition leaders seem to be banking on as they
prepare for another bid to bring the recent wave of ex-Soviet
revolutions to Armenia. Their previous campaign of anti-Kocharian
demonstrations last year failed to attract strong public support and
was easily suppressed by security forces.
Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, Kocharian’s most likely successor,
indicated on July 24 that the regime is ready to go as far as to
order troops into the streets of Yerevan to hold off another
opposition challenge. “Who is their Hercules who will come and crack
my head and sit in my chair?” he asked members of a pro-government
youth organization. “How do they imagine cracking Kocharian’s head
and occupying his post?”
(Report by a Venice Commission working group on Armenia, July 22;
Haykakan Zhamanak, July 26; Aravot, July 26; RFE/RL Armenia Report,
July 4, 22)