RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 8, No. 30, 2 August 2005
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL’s Newsline Team
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HEADLINES:
* A CABINET POSITION IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SOME
* VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN KURDISH REGIONS
* PORTION OF EASTERN IRAN QUARANTINED
* TEHRAN DEFENDS ITS HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD
* SKEPTICISM ABOUT SIGNIFICANCE OF REPORT ON IRANIAN PRISONS
* CLERICS CALL FOR JOURNALIST’S RELEASE
* IRANIANS ARRESTED FOR INTERNATIONAL DRUG ACTIVITIES
* IRAN THREATENED BY DRUGS AND AIDS
* TEHRAN AND BERLIN BEGIN WAR OF WORDS
* IRAN ALLEGEDLY PURCHASING NUCLEAR-WEAPON PARTS
* KHATAMI SAYS URANIUM CONVERSION TO BEGIN
* IRANIAN NUCLEAR PLANS WORRY FRANCE
* WASHINGTON SHARES IRANIAN MISSILE DATA WITH IAEA
* IRANIAN SATELLITE LAUNCH ANNOUNCED
* IRAN AND UKRAINE SIGN GAS-PIPELINE MEMORANDUM
* IRAN STRUGGLES TO PUSH AHEAD WITH INDIA PIPELINE
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A CABINET POSITION IS NOT ENOUGH FOR SOME. Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei was expected officially to confirm Mahmud Ahmadinejad as
president on 3 August, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)
reported on 17 July, and Ahmadinejad will be sworn in on 6 August.
The new president will have 15 days to introduce his proposed cabinet
members to the parliament for approval, according to parliamentarian
Hamid Reza Haji-Babai.
Ahmadinejad’s future cabinet continues to be a topic of
discussion in the Tehran press (see “RFE/RL Iran Report,” 13 July
2005). Now, the discussion is not so much about the actual choices as
it is about the selection process. One aspect of this process focuses
on the permissibility of a cabinet member continuing to serve on a
municipal council. Another aspect of the process focuses on
intra-factional differences among the hard-liners who backed
Ahmadinejad’s presidential bid.
Splits Among The Victors
“Mardom Salari” reported on 21 July that the majority faction
in the legislature objects to the team selecting the cabinet, and
although it did not provide any details on this “team,” it put this
argument in the context of disagreements between members of the
Islamic Iran Developers Coalition in the legislature and in the
Tehran municipal council. Developers in the legislature mostly backed
the candidacies of Ali Larijani and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in the
first round of the presidential election. The Developers in the
municipal council, however, backed Ahmadinejad consistently.
A reference to these splits appeared in the 7 July “Farhang-i
Ashti,” which reported that the 15 members of the municipal council
plan to form an independent group. The same day, “Mardom Salari”
reported that the Developers do not want to lose control of the
municipal council. At the same time, they believe they should have a
role in Ahmadinejad’s administration.
The 15 hard-line Developers also fear that if they leave the
council, they will be replaced by reformists. This is because,
according to the regulations, they would be replaced by the
council-election runners-up. No. 16 in the council race was a leading
reformist, Mustafa Tajzadeh. Tajzadeh, as well as national-religious
activist Gholam Abbas Tavasoli, are anticipating the hard-liners’
resignations, “Farhang-i Ashti” reported on 3 July.
Council member and Developer Mehdi Chamran, therefore, is
putting off the possibility of a position as cabinet member or
government spokesman, while the council is claiming that the law does
not prevent individuals from serving in the government and the
council.
On the possibility of serving in two positions, Chamran said,
“The only problem is in practice, in terms of time, and members are
concerned by that,” “Etemad” reported on 6 July. “The workload has
taken up so much time that members have little time left for other
matters.” Another council member, Amir-Reza Vaezi-Ashtiani, said the
legislature and the Guardians Council are to weigh in on the issue.
Government officials’ comments did not clarify the
situation. Interior Ministry spokesman Jahanbakhsh Khanjani said
Article 141 of the constitution and Article 28 of the law on
municipal councils forbid vice presidents, cabinet ministers, or
presidential advisers from being members of municipal councils,
“Etemad” reported on 6 July. Judiciary spokesman Jamal Karimi-Rad
cited a law ratified in 1994-96, “indicating that city council
members are not considered government employees, and stating that
someone in the city council can also be in the cabinet.”
Old School v. New School
“Farhang-i Ashti” on 21 July put the dispute in terms of the
rivalry between the young right wing and the traditionalist right
wing. An editorial in the 19 July issue of the same newspaper said
the traditional right, which has its roots in the Qom seminary and in
the country’s “economic centers” (presumably, the bazaar), fears
that it is being slowly eliminated.
Reflecting the old right is Islamic Coalition Party central
council member Habibullah Asgaroladi-Mosalman, who is deputy leader
of the Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces that backed
Ali Larijani’s presidential bid. He advised the president-elect
to “draw a line of moderation between opting for the youth and
valuing those with experience,” “Shoma” reported on 16 July. “The
next government’s ministers, while they should be young,
specialists, and competent, they must at the same time have had some
on the job experience, even if it is brief.”
Everybody Has An Opinion
These are not the only aspects of the cabinet-selection
process that interest Iranian commentators.
Mohammad Reza Khatami, secretary-general of the reformist
Islamic Iran Participation Party, called for a politically united
cabinet that would take full responsibility for its actions, “Aftab-i
Yazd” reported on 23 July.
Legislator Fatemeh Ajarlu said the president-elect wants to
use new faces, “Farhang-i Ashti” reported on 21 July. “Aftab-i Yazd”
advised Ahmadinejad on 21 July to ignore calls for a bipartisan
cabinet and to instead choose officials who can work together. This
would eliminate ministers attributing their shortcomings to politics
or rivalries.
“Kayhan” on 19 July cited interviews with various legislators
and commentators who in the midst of advising Ahmadinejad on
selecting his cabinet, called for reforms in the Foreign Ministry,
Interior Ministry, Ministry of Islamic Culture and Guidance, and
Ministry of Intelligence and Security.
Perhaps the final word should go to Basij commander Mohammad
Hejazi, whose institution allegedly played such an important role in
Ahmadinejad’s victory. Hejazi said at a conference of the Basij
units at state organizations and trade guilds, “The person who has
been elected by the people as the next president is a Basiji
personality, and it is expected that he is going to appoint aides and
managers who espouse the Basiji mode of thought as well,” “Iran”
reported on 7 July. Hejazi predicted that Basij members in government
organizations will have an important role in the future. (Bill Samii)
VIOLENCE CONTINUES IN KURDISH REGIONS. Five Iranian security officers
were killed and four were wounded in a clash with PKK affiliates
(PJAK, Kurdistan Independent Life Party) from midnight to early
morning on 27 July in Siahkuh, a mountainous area between Oshnovieh
and Piranshahr, Baztab reported. The Kurds were armed with mortars,
heavy machine guns, and light machine guns.
The “Milliyet” newspaper from Turkey reported one day earlier
that Iran has launched a major operation along its border with Iraq
and Turkey. According to the Turkish daily, 16 Iranian soldiers and
four Kurds were killed in battles “in the Kelaresh and Milgever areas
along the Turkish border and in the Gaddare areas near the town of
Shino, near the border with Iraq.” Iranian personnel reportedly are
operating in the areas near Marivan and Baneh, Piranshahr and
Mahabad, and Sardasht.
The Sanandaj Revolutionary Court has summoned two Kurdistan
University student activists, Asu Saleh and Chia Hejazi, the
university’s Students Islamic Association head, Nusratullah
Shariati, said on 25 July, according to the Iranian Students News
Agency (ISNA). Shariati said the two are charged with disturbing
public opinion through their election-related activities. These
activities included inviting reformist speakers.
In another predominantly Kurdish town, Mahabad, West
Azerbaijan Province, Governor Said Maruf-Samadi said on 24 July that
shops have reopened after officials met with the local shopkeepers
guild, the municipal council, and community leaders, ISNA reported.
The closures took place amid disturbances that followed
authorities’ shooting and killing a local activist known as
Shavaneh (see “RFE/RL Iran Report,” 19 July 2005). Maruf-Samadi said
most of the 64 people who were arrested have been released, but 11
remain in detention. (Bill Samii)
PORTION OF EASTERN IRAN QUARANTINED. The authorities have closed the
Nishabur-Mashhad highway until further notice, Iranian state radio
reported on 28 July. “Police forces closed the main road between
Mashhad and Nishabur in order to maintain calm, following the protest
by a number of citizens in Kharveyn, Razavi Khorasan Province.” State
radio reported that the unrest follows the arrest of two people
involved with an earlier protest against the failure to make Kharveyn
a “local administrative center.” (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN DEFENDS ITS HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD. Reacting to a recent British
report on human rights in Iran, Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said
in Tehran on 24 July that such reports are “irrelevant,” IRNA
reported. “Islam-bashing is on the rise in European states and
attacks on mosques are a token of human right violations in Europe
which should be paid attention to.” Kharrazi said Iran plans to
report on human rights in other countries. He did not speculate on
the reaction such a report would receive.
The “Annual Report on Human Rights 2005” from the Foreign and
Commonwealth Office
(
owPage&c=Page&cid=1119526503628) was released on 21 July. “There has
been no significant progress in Iran since our last Annual Report;
human rights have deteriorated further in many areas.” The report
notes increased censorship, particularly of the Internet. It also
refers to arrests of human rights defenders, restrictions on workers,
abuses in prisons, and discrimination against women. The report notes
the lack of progress in the EU-Iran human rights dialogue. (Bill
Samii)
SKEPTICISM ABOUT SIGNIFICANCE OF REPORT ON IRANIAN PRISONS. Iranian
prisons hold 132,564 inmates, Iranian Judiciary spokesman Jamal
Karimirad said on 26 July, IRNA reported. Saying that this is the
figure for the period ending 21 June, Karimirad said this shows a
2.64 percent decrease compared to one year earlier. Six years ago,
Iranian prisons held 185,000 people, Karimirad said. Most of the
incoming convicts are imprisoned for drug offenses. There are 4,707
females inmates, he added, and 5,330 foreign ones.
In an unprecedented development, the Iranian judiciary
released a report on 24 July that details abusive human rights
practices in the country’s prisons. Tehran Justice Department
chief Abbas Alizadeh noted that Judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmud
Hashemi-Shahrudi has issued a directive on civil rights, but that
many of the practices run counter to this directive, “Aftab-i Yazd”
and other news sources reported. In one case, for example, a
13-year-old was jailed for stealing a chicken, and in another case a
women in her 80s was jailed for financial difficulties.
The report also notes the detention facilities where the most
serious problems occur. These include the Tehran criminal department
detention center (Agahi-yi Tehran); the army intelligence
organization detention center; the Public Establishments Office
(Edareh-yi Amaken-i Omumi) detention center; and the defense ministry
intelligence department center known as “64.” It also lists the
police intelligence department center; the jail in Rajaishahr; the
facility belonging to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps security
and intelligence department; the IRGC intelligence department
facility; and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security’s Section
209 at Evin prison. Still more are the criminal investigations
detention center in Shahr-i Rey; the Rey drug control headquarters;
police station 160 in Khazaneh; Unit 3 of the Qezel-Hesar prison in
Karaj, the Kharvin correctional facility at Veramin; the Veramin and
Shahriar criminal department detention centers; the Shahriar drug
control headquarters detention center; the Tehran revolutionary
court; and the District 7 revolutionary prosecutor’s office.
Some 1,400 people are held in Rajaishahr although they have
not been convicted. The Ministry of Intelligence and Security
facilities are supposed to be overseen by the Prisons Organization,
but in fact they operate according to the regulations of their home
organization. Torture and solitary confinement are rampant.
Some observers remain skeptical. Hassan Zarezadeh is in
charge of the Student Committee In Defense of Political Prisoners In
Iran. He says the hard-line judiciary is trying to portray itself in
a better light. “[The report] shows that the regime wants to
demonstrate that there have been real reforms in the judiciary and
that they are committed to human rights. But their comments about
torture being eradicated can be challenged because why are
[prisoners] still being held in solitary confinement for long periods
while facing complicated interrogations? Isn’t it torture? Last
week, Behruz Javid Tehrani, a member of the Democratic Party of Iran
who has been held in solitary confinement for the last three months,
managed to tell his relatives during a visit that he was severely
beaten in prison.”
Zarezadeh, who has been arrested several times in recent
years, says he has witnessed the ill treatment of prisoners. “It
includes long solitary confinements, hanging suspects [from the
ceiling], handcuffing behind the back, beating, hitting the head of
suspects to the wall and also psychological torture.”
Mohammad Ali Dadkhah is the spokesman of the Center of Human
Rights Defendants, founded by Nobel Peace Laureate Shirin Ebadi. He
says he, too, believes prisoners’ rights are still being
violated. “The bitter reality is that these incidents have existed in
our prisons. For example, when I was detained in Evin prison, I was
once stripped naked in the snow. I think illegal actions are still
widespread in the prisons. As I speak to you, Akbar Ganji [Iran’s
most prominent political prisoner] has not the right to meet his
lawyer.”
Iranian authorities have in the past denied the mistreatment
of prisoners and the use of torture. But human rights organizations
have repeatedly said that torture is prevalent in prisons.
Several political prisoners including student activists and
journalists have said that they were forced into false confessions
under duress. Many say they have been denied access to relatives and
lawyers.
The Iranian government has welcomed the judiciary report, but
Zarezadeh expresses doubt the report will have real consequences.
“If the Islamic republic has been forced into a retreat under
protests from inside the country and international pressure, it does
not mean that torture does not exist, that solitary confinement
[will] be eradicated, that all the political prisoners [will] be
freed and that other prisoners [will] be treated humanely.” (Bill
Samii, Golnaz Esfandiari)
CLERICS CALL FOR JOURNALIST’S RELEASE. A number of Iran’s
leading clerics are calling for the release of hunger-striking and
hospitalized journalist Akbar Ganji, or at least some sort of
solution to the case. Ganji, meanwhile, is continuing his criticism
of the ruling system from his hospital bed.
Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani on 28 July expressed concern about Ganji, Radio
Farda, the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), and IRNA reported.
Hashemi-Rafsanjani said he is sorry about the situation and has
discussed it with Judiciary chief Ayatollah Mahmud Hashemi-Shahrudi.
Hashemi-Rafsanjani said he made several proposals on resolving the
issue.
Farhang Naderi, a political associate of Hashemi-Rafsanjani,
told Radio Farda that the Expediency Council chairman has the ability
to secure Ganji’s freedom, and he claimed Hashemi-Rafsanjani was
behind Ganji’s prison leave in June. Prague-based Radio Farda
correspondent Siavash Ardalan questioned these claims, noting that
even the judiciary chief has said he cannot reverse Tehran prosecutor
Said Mortazavi’s actions. Ganji was, Ardalan added, very critical
of Hashemi-Rafsanjani in a book he wrote about the serial murders of
dissident intellectuals.
Ayatollah Hashem Hashemzadeh-Harisi, a member of the
committee supervising implementation of the constitution, has
demanded some sort of solution to the problems presented by the Ganji
situation, “Etemad” reported on 26 July. The Qom Seminary Lecturers
Association has requested the release of Ganji, ISNA reported on 25
July. The association’s letter to Judiciary chief
Hashemi-Shahrudi noted the adverse impact this issue is having at
home and abroad, and it called for better treatment of people with
divergent political views.
Ayatollah Hussein-Ali Montazeri-Najafabadi spoke out against
Ganji’s imprisonment and called for an end to his hunger strike,
“Aftab-i Yazd” reported on 18 July.
Ganji’s wife, Masumeh Shafii, said in a 25 July interview
with Radio Farda that she has sent a letter to the head of the
judiciary asking that her husband’s case be transferred away from
prosecutor Said Mortazavi. Shafii said she asked Hashemi-Shahrudi to
handle the case himself. She claimed that Mortazavi told her husband
his death would benefit the system 100 percent, and he added that
death in the hospital is a normal thing. The official reason for
Ganji’s hospitalization is not his hunger strike, but because he
allegedly needs knee surgery. Given Mortazavi’s alleged
statements, Shafii said, Ganji does not want to have the knee
operation.
Having seen her husband on 24 July, Shafii says Ganji’s
physical condition is worsening, Radio Farda reported. After Tehran
Justice Department deputy chief Mohammad Salarkia’s denial that
Ganji is on hunger strike, Shafii challenged him to give access to
independent journalists who can photograph Ganji. She also expressed
amazement that Salarkia and Mortazavi, who are not physicians,
determined that Ganji’s knee needs surgery. (Bill Samii)
IRANIANS ARRESTED FOR INTERNATIONAL DRUG ACTIVITIES. Prosecutors in
South Korea have detained a 28-year-old Iranian male and his
40-year-old Korean girlfriend for smuggling 2.5 kilograms of opium
from Southwest Asia’s Golden Crescent (Afghanistan, Iran, and
Pakistan), “Chosun Ilbo” reported on 22 July. In connection with this
case, a 22-year-old Iranian male was booked but not detained and five
other Iranians are wanted.
In what appears to be a separate case, police in the German
city of Cologne have broken up a gang of international traffickers
responsible for smuggling 225 kilograms of opium worth 900,000 euros
($1.1 million), ddp news agency reported on 20 July. The Iranian head
of the gang imported the narcotics from Iran via Istanbul, Italy, and
Austria. The profits were transferred back to Iran. (Bill Samii)
IRAN THREATENED BY DRUGS AND AIDS. An international expert
participating in the 3rd International AIDS Society Conference on HIV
Pathogenesis and Treatment in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, has warned that
the AIDS epidemic is worsening due to the trafficking of opium and
heroin from Afghanistan, Radio Farda reported on 26 July. The rise is
particularly noticeable in countries along traditional smuggling
routes, such as Iran. Dr. Christopher Beyrer, an associate professor
of epidemiology and international health at the Johns Hopkins
Bloomberg School of Public Health, said approximately 10 percent of
addicts in these countries have access to clean needles or drug
substitution programs. The four-day conference is scheduled to end on
27 July. Participants have called for a dynamic response to the AIDS
epidemic, and participants in the recent G8 summit in Scotland called
for universal access to anti-viral treatments by the end of the
decade. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN AND BERLIN BEGIN WAR OF WORDS. Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi said on 23 July in Tehran, “I need to
repeat my previous comments once again and suggest that the German
Foreign Ministry and the German Foreign Ministry spokesman respect
the democratic rules,” state television reported.
This was the latest in an exchange of accusations that began
when German Interior Minister Otto Schilly referred to Iran’s
involvement with international terrorism in an interview with “Der
Spiegel” magazine.
Assefi initially reacted on 19 July, saying, “I advise this
German official not to be influenced by Zionist circles” and “The
German Interior Minister should respect the principles of democracy
and think more before expressing his views,” ISNA reported.
Schilly’s unnamed spokesman described Assefi’s
admonishment as “incredible impudence,” “Frankfurter Allgemeine”
reported on 21 July. “The impudence of such a voice from a country
that continually violates human rights, where women are whipped on
the basis of dubious verdicts, where dissidents are kept in solitary
confinement for months without any possibility for legal support and
an objective review by the court, can hardly be surpassed.”
Iranian parliamentary representative Hamid Reza Haji-Babai
said on 25 July that Schilly should apologize publicly for insulting
Iran and its president-elect, Mehr News Agency reported. Haji-Babai
accused Schilly of interfering with Iranian internal affairs. (Bill
Samii)
IRAN ALLEGEDLY PURCHASING NUCLEAR-WEAPON PARTS. According to “secret
documents” — the source of which is not disclosed — Iran continues
to purchase nuclear weapons parts, “Der Spiegel” magazine alleged on
25 July. One such deal is between Iran’s Partoris company and
South Korea’s Kung-Do Enterprises and was concluded on 24
December 2004. $98,720 was paid for 300 units of nickel-63 (Ni-63),
which is reportedly used in the ignition of nuclear bombs and which
also can be used in smoke detectors. Partoris reportedly used the
cover name Parto Namje Tolua. In the second deal, the South Korean
firm ordered tritium targets from France’s EADS Sodern firm.
Tritium targets reportedly are used in neutron emitters, which can
trigger the chain reaction in a nuclear bomb, and $33,000 was paid
for them.
An unnamed spokesman from the South Korean Ministry of
Science and Technology said on 27 July that provision of radioactive
isotopes — nickel-63 and tritium — to Iran in 2004 was legal,
Yonhap news agency reported. “The company, engaging in intermediary
trade, adhered to the law and rules when it sold 300 Ni-63 isotopes,”
the spokesman said. “The company conducted the transfer after
receiving a pledge from the Iranian buyer that the substance would
only be used for nondestructive testing, such as checking pipes at
refineries for oil leaks.” The company in question also served as the
middleman in a deal between Iranian and Russian firms.
An unnamed official from Kung-Do Enterprises said, according
to “JoongAng Ilbo” () on 27 July, “We sold Ni-63
to an Iranian firm after it said it would use it in detecting gas. We
obtained a memorandum from the firm to this effect.” He denied the
sale of tritium and doing any deals with the French firm. Ministry of
Science and Technology official Yi Sun-chong said there could be a
problem if the Korean company has sold Ni-63 without a permit.
Another Ministry of Science and Technology official, An Sung-chun,
said a January investigation of the Korean firm found that tritium
exports did not occur.
An Iranian nuclear official said in Tehran on 26 July that
the original “Der Spiegel” report is the result of a “fantasy
fabricated by the Zionist circles,” Mehr News Agency reported. (Bill
Samii)
KHATAMI SAYS URANIUM CONVERSION TO BEGIN. President Hojatoleslam
Mohammad Khatami said during a 27 July news conference in Tehran that
activities at the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility could resume in
days, state television and state radio reported. He said this depends
on the European proposal at an upcoming Iran-EU meeting. If the
Europeans do not agree on when Iranian nuclear activities resume, he
said, “the system has already made its decision to resume
Isfahan’s activities.” Khatami continued, “The deadline will
depend on the Europeans and their proposal. That is the deadline.”
Raw uranium is processed into uranium hexafluoride at the Isfahan
facility. (Bill Samii)
IRANIAN NUCLEAR PLANS WORRY FRANCE. France’s President Jacques
Chirac told visiting Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon that Iran
should be referred to the UN Security Council if it does not provide
“objective guarantees” that it has stopped sensitive nuclear
activities, AFP reported. Chirac’s spokesman, Jerome Bonnafont,
added that France seeks “objective guarantees on Iran renouncing all
activities in the area of fissile matter production, under the
control of the IAEA.” French Foreign Ministry deputy spokeswoman
Cecile Pozzo di Borgo said in Paris earlier in the day, “Iran knows
the consequences of any resumption of activities currently suspended,
which can only be negative for Iran,” AFP reported. (Bill Samii)
WASHINGTON SHARES IRANIAN MISSILE DATA WITH IAEA. Iranian Minister of
Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ali Shamkhani said on 28 July that
Iran has achieved self-sufficiency in producing solid fuel for
missiles, Radio Farda reported. This enables ballistic missiles, such
as the Shihab-3, to operate with greater accuracy. The missile can go
as far as 1,930 kilometers and it can be fitted with a nuclear
warhead, according to Radio Farda, and this brings Israel and
American military bases in the Middle East within range. Such
technological accomplishments, Shamkhani said, contribute to
Iran’s power of deterrence.
U.S. officials have shared intelligence with the
International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s effort to develop a
missile that can deliver a nuclear warhead, “The Wall Street Journal”
reported on 27 June. The briefing took place in Vienna in mid-July.
The intelligence was secured the previous year, and it appears to
reveal Iranian efforts from 2001 to 2003 to adapt the Shihab-3
missile to deliver a “black box.” U.S. experts are fairly certain
that this box is a nuclear warhead. “The Wall Street Journal” first
described this “compelling” but “circumstantial” data in March (see
“RFE/RL Iran Report, 30 March 2005). At that time, Washington had
shared the information with Berlin, London, and Paris, but it did not
know how to make it public and had rejected an IAEA request for a
briefing. (Bill Samii)
IRANIAN SATELLITE LAUNCH ANNOUNCED. Iran’s Mesbah and Sina-1
satellites will be launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome in Russia in
October, an unnamed Russian defense industry spokesman announced on
25 July, Interfax-AVN reported. The launch of the Molniya-M rocket
was scheduled for August but all launches were postponed after a June
launch ended in failure. Accompanying the Iranian satellite will be
the China-DMC, TopSat from the United Kingdom., Norway’s Ncube-2,
Germany’s UWE-1, Japan’s XI-V, and the European Space
Agency’s SSET Express. The Mesbah satellite will carry out
meteorological and geological tasks. (Bill Samii)
IRAN AND UKRAINE SIGN GAS-PIPELINE MEMORANDUM. Iran and Ukraine have
signed a memorandum of understanding to study the possibility of
transporting Iranian natural gas via a pipeline to Europe, “The
Moscow Times” reported on 26 July. According to a statement from the
Ukrainian state-owned natural gas company, Naftogaz Ukrainy, the
agreement followed a 24 July meeting between Naftogaz CEO Oleksiy
Ivchenko and Iranian Deputy Petroleum Minister Hadi Nejad-Husseinian.
Naftogaz is reportedly seeking the participation of Gaz de France,
and the project would require a minimum $8 billion investment.
Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported on 25 July that Ivchenko
proposed two possible pipeline routes:
Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Ukraine-Europe or Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Black
Sea-Ukraine-Europe. Specific details of the project will be
considered at a meeting scheduled to take place by the end of
September. Ivchenko met with Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh
as well, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported. (Bill Samii)
IRAN STRUGGLES TO PUSH AHEAD WITH INDIA PIPELINE. Initial discussions
among the participating countries concerning a proposed 2,600
kilometer overland natural-gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to
India began in the early 1990s, and Iran, which sits on the
world’s second-largest natural-gas reserves (an estimated 26.6
trillion cubic meters, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration), is eager for the project to get under way. Work on
the project has yet to commence, however, and mid-July statements
from Indian officials cast doubt on the deal, particularly after
Washington agreed to cooperate with the Indian nuclear program.
New Delhi Expresses Doubts
India is a huge and growing natural-gas market. Natural-gas
consumption in India was nearly 25 billion cubic meters in 2002 and
is projected to reach 34 billion cubic meters in 2010 and 45.3
billion cubic meters in 2015. With these increasing energy
requirements, India has entered discussions about pipeline
construction with Bangladesh, Iran, Myanmar (Burma), and Qatar.
Recent meetings of officials from India, Iran, and Pakistan suggested
that the pipeline connecting the three countries would get under way
in the near future despite pricing disagreements (see “RFE/RL Iran
Report,” 7 March and 23 March 2005).
Indian officials stressed their eagerness to go ahead with
the Iranian pipeline project earlier in the summer. Indian Petroleum
Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar said in Lahore on 4 June that India would
not give in to U.S. pressure to abandon the project because of
concerns Iran might use the revenues to develop weapons of mass
destruction, Press Trust of India (PTI) reported. The next day, Aiyar
was in Pakistan for talks with his counterpart, Amanullah Khan
Jadoon.
The two sides created a Joint Working Group to accelerate
work on the pipeline. Diplomats in the Indian capital noted that Iran
is absent from the Joint Working Group, the Hindi “Navbharat Times”
() reported on 8 June, and they
suggested that this was a conscious decision in order to allay U.S.
concerns.
In mid-June, India agreed to purchase $22 billion worth of
natural gas from Iran. Starting in 2009-10, an Indian consortium will
purchase 5 million tons of LNG annually over a 25-year period. This
was less than the initial agreement, reached in January, for the
purchase of 7.5 million tons.
The next month, Pakistani officials were in New Delhi to
discuss the pipeline. Indian Petroleum Minister Aiyar told reporters
that the discussions would address commercial, financial, legal, and
technical issues. According to AFP on 12 July, when asked about
Washington’s opposition to the project, Pakistani Oil Secretary
Ahmad Waqar said, “Our president and prime minister have stated on a
number of occasions that we will proceed with this project based on
our national interests.”
Given these developments, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh’s announcement on 21 July in Washington that he is not sure
the pipeline will get funding may have come as an unpleasant surprise
to observers in Tehran and Islamabad. “I am realistic enough to
realize that there are many risks, because considering all the
uncertainties of the situation there in Iran, I don’t know if any
international consortium of bankers would underwrite this,” he said
according to the PTI news agency.
Islamabad Is Eager
Talks between Pakistan and Iran in early July also suggested
that all was well.
Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh visited
Islamabad and met with Pakistani Petroleum Minister Jadoon in the
first week of July. The two sides signed a memorandum of
understanding that called for continued discussions, and
Namdar-Zanganeh hoped that a final agreement would be signed by April
2006. He noted that after 10 years of talks, this is the first
“written document.” Namdar-Zanganeh also met with Prime Minister
Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, according to media
reports.
Jadoon emphasized that his country will need natural gas for
consumer and industrial consumption by 2010. The country’s demand
for natural gas is expected to rise approximately 50 percent by 2006,
according to the EIA. Moreover, gas is expected to become the “fuel
of choice” for electricity-generation projects in the future.
In light of this requirement, and possibly because of the
approximately $600 million in transit fees Pakistan stands to earn,
Islamabad tried to allay concerns prompted by Singh’s late July
comments. Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Muhammad Naim Khan
announced on 25 July that even if India gives in to U.S. pressure,
Islamabad will build a natural gas pipeline from Iran, AFP reported.
“We would welcome Indian association with this project but if it is
not feasible with India, we are going to go ahead with the project in
any case,” Khan said in the Pakistani capital. He said Pakistan needs
the gas.
Pakistani Petroleum Minister Jadoon said in Islamabad on 23
July that his country can handle all the pipeline security
requirements, IRNA reported. “We, like India, are in need of gas and
we know how to take care of the interstate projects and we are
committed to its security,” he said.
“Business Recorder” (), a Pakistani
financial daily, reported on 28 July that Islamabad has begun a
search for investment banks that could serve as “financial
adviser/consultant” for the pipeline. Pakistan wants to hasten
completion of the paperwork for the project, and it is aiming for a
December 2005 deadline. Despite recent cautionary statements from
Indian officials, the Pakistanis believe India’s energy
requirements will force the issue. Pakistan is also willing to pursue
the issue bilaterally.
The Nuclear Alternative
The pipeline project directly involves Iran, Pakistan, and
India, and it has the potential to improve troubled Islamabad-New
Delhi relations. Washington would welcome such a development, but it
is reluctant to see the project go ahead. U.S. State Department
official Stephen Rademaker warned that Iran could fund terrorism and
weapons of mass destruction with the money it makes from natural-gas
sales, the international edition of “The Wall Street Journal”
reported on 24 June. U.S. officials have warned the Indians and
Pakistanis that their companies could be sanctioned if they go ahead
with the project.
If India forsakes natural gas from Iran, then it may have to
turn to nuclear power as an alternative. U.S. President George W.
Bush announced on 18 July that India is “a responsible state” that
“should acquire the same benefits and advantages as other such
states,” ft.com reported. Bush went on to say that he would encourage
Congress to make the legal adjustments necessary for such cooperation
with the Indian nuclear program to take place. In exchange for such
cooperation, India agreed to allow international agencies to oversee
its nuclear program.
The collapse of the Indian natural-gas deal would be a sharp
blow to Iran. Such a development could have an impact in three areas.
One possibility is that Iran will try to salvage the deal by offering
India a lower price for its gas. Pricing disagreements were one of
the main hang-ups in March.
Another possibility is that Iran’s efforts to diversify
beyond oil will collapse. That being said, Armenia and Turkey are
already customers for Iranian gas; Tehran has signed agreements with
Oman and Kuwait; and it has signed gas-related memorandums — or at
least discussed the topic — with Austria, Bulgaria, China, Greece,
Italy, South Korea, and Taiwan.
The third possibility, which is probably much more remote, is
that Iran will renounce activities that concern the international
community, including support for terrorism, interference in
neighboring states’ affairs, and the pursuit of weapons of mass
destruction.
Failing that, Iran will find it very difficult to compete
with the United States in terms of bargaining power. If the Indian
model — even without nuclear concessions — is applied successfully
in more cases where Iran is trying to do business with other
countries, then Iran will find its isolation is increasing. (Bill
Samii)
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Copyright (c) 2005. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The “RFE/RL Iran Report” is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
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