The New York Sun
August 9, 2005

Second-Largest Recipients of U.S. Aid, Armenians Fight To Get Ahead
BY MICHAEL MAINVILLE – Special to the Sun

YEREVAN, Armenia – A close ally of Russia, with a grossly corrupt economy
and a ruler accused of increasing authoritarianism, Armenia hardly seems a
prime candidate for massive doses of American aid money.
Yet this tiny South Caucasus republic receives more American aid per capita
than any other country except Israel – a total of more than $1.6 billion
since 1992. When the White House tried to cut sizably American assistance to
Armenia earlier this summer, Congress blocked the move, bumping up the
administration’s allocation from $55 million to $75 million for 2006.
Armenians can thank one of the most effective and well-organized ethnic
lobbies on Capitol Hill for the windfall. With wealthy backing and strong
grassroots support, America’s million-strong Armenian population,
concentrated in the Northeast and California, has for years successfully
lobbied for increased aid.
At the time of its independence after the breakup of the Soviet Union in
1991, Armenia seemed a dream come true for a people with a tragic history.
Less than a century after the Armenian genocide – when the Turks killed
between 500,000 and 1.5 million Armenians – the world’s 4 million ethnic
Armenians finally had a national homeland.
But instead of thriving – and despite the money pouring in from foreign
donors – Armenia is languishing. Its politics are moribund, dominated by
President Kocharian, whom critics accuse of falsifying elections and
cracking down on the opposition. And despite years of significant growth,
its economy remains in shambles, with nearly half the population living on
less than $2 a day.
The result has been a mass exodus – the reverse of early hopes for Armenia.
Instead of hundreds of thousands of dispersed Armenians flocking to the
country, more than 1 million Armenians have left for Russia and the West,
leaving Armenia with a population of less than 3 million. According to some
estimates, the country has lost more than 30% of its working-age population.
“People are leaving because they don’t see any hope for the future,” the
chairman of human rights group Helsinki Committee of Armenia, Avetik
Ishkanyan, said. “And the worst part is that the ones who are leaving are
from the most active part of society – these are the people we need to bring
about changes in this country.”
Critics lay much of the blame at Mr. Kocharian’s feet. They say that the
president – elected for a second time in 2003 – is running a corrupt and
despotic regime, giving free rein to businessmen close to him and stifling
any dissent.
“There is a huge gap between those in power and the majority of Armenian
society,” said the leader of the opposition Justice coalition, Stepan
Demirchian, who is also the son of a Kocharian rival killed in 1999 when
gunmen attacked Parliament and shot several prominent politicians. “And when
we try to resist, when we try to bring democratic change, they respond with
violence.”
In April 2004, inspired by the peaceful Rose Revolution in neighboring
Georgia, thousands of Armenians took to the streets to denounce Mr.
Kocharian and voting fraud in the 2003 elections. After more than 50,000
people demonstrated on April 12 and 13, Mr. Kocharian called in the police
to break up the protest with stun grenades and water cannons.
Government officials insist the crackdown was needed to maintain order and
say opposition parties are simply trying to seize power for themselves.
The foreign minister, Vardan Oskanyan, said the opposition uses the pretense
of supporting democracy to gain support abroad as they attempt to overthrow
the government. He said he knows that Armenia’s democracy is not perfect,
but believes it is improving.
“The government is stable, and the country is on the path to becoming a
fully democratic country,” he said. “A lot has been done, but a lot remains
to be done.”
Under pressure from the West, Armenia will hold a national referendum this
year on a package of constitutional amendments designed to limit the power
of the presidency and protect judicial independence. Mr. Oskanyan said the
reforms will be key to ensuring democratic and economic growth.
“Once we complete our constitutional reforms, Armenia will move forward in
leaps and bounds,” he said.
Opposition leaders see things differently. They say the reforms are only
symbolic and see the referendum as a potential trigger for the kind of mass
protests that drove out authoritarian governments in Georgia and Ukraine.
The leader of the radical Republic Party, Aram Sarkisian, said opposition
parties are gearing up to organize mass demonstrations after the referendum,
which he said is sure to be fraudulent.
“The situation in our country is terrible, people are leaving because they
have no hope,” he said. “Armenian society is ready for revolutionary change,
peaceful and civilized change.”
Mr. Sarkisian said he met with White House and State Department officials
during a June trip to Washington and emerged confident of American support
for a revolution.
“The United States supported the Georgians and the Ukrainians, and they will
help the Armenian people,” he said.
Still, experts said it’s unlikely the opposition could organize a successful
revolution or win Western support. Fractured by in-fighting and with no
clear leader, the opposition is more likely to fall apart before posing any
threat to Mr. Kocharian.
“The opposition is too weak and the government is just democratic enough to
keep the West from supporting drastic changes,” said a Western official in
Yerevan, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Chatting over rich coffees and ice-cold Coca-Colas in Yerevan’s trendy
ArtBridge Cafe, a group of students and recent graduates agreed that a
revolution is next to impossible.
Unlike so many other young Armenians, they’ve decided to stay and try to
build their country.
“I will not leave Armenia, I want do to things for my country, make it a
better place to live,” a 26-year-old university lecturer, Artak Ayunts,
said.
But the group was skeptical about radical changes. They don’t believe
Armenians are ready for a revolution and say it could take decades of slow
progress before the country is free and relatively prosperous.
“People don’t believe in themselves, they think someone else should always
make changes for them,” Mr. Ayunts said.
Joked a 28-year-old student, Gevorg Abrahamyan: “The biggest problem with
Armenia is the Armenians.”