PRESS RELEASE
The National Citizens’ Initiative
75 Yerznkian Street
Yerevan 375033, Armenia
Tel.: (+374 – 10) 27.16.00, 27.00.03
Fax: (+374 – 10) 52.48.46
E-mail: info@nci.am
Website:

August 10, 2005

National Citizens’ Initiative Examines Likelihood of Revolution in Armenia

Yerevan–The National Citizens’ Initiative (NCI) today convened a roundtable
on “The Probability of Revolution in Armenia: Preconditions and
Consequences.” The meeting brought together public figures, policy makers,
media representatives, analysts and experts.

NCI coordinator Hovsep Khurshudian welcomed the audience with opening
remarks and wished the participants fruitful work. “The final hopes that
Armenia’s rulers would find strength and decency in themselves to change the
destructive course which is taking the country toward the Middle Ages, and
that they would initiate the first steps to the public demand for
fundamental transformation seem to be thwarted. Consequently, headed by the
progressive political powers, the society itself must engage in fundamental
value metamorphosis, and in the outcome, Armenia would find its rightful
place in the family of free, dignified and prosperous societies,”
Khurshudian said.

During her policy intervention, National Press Club chairperson Narine
Mkrtchian put an emphasis on the implementation of socio-political changes,
and the historical necessity for the establishment of a new political
system. She talked in detail about the existing preconditions in the
country, which, in her view, would cause a revolution. And these are: the
absence of authoritative legitimacy; the political elite’s ineptitude to
form a progressive social order; corruption; clan-based rule; dilapidation
of ethics at all levels; and other abuses upon which economic,
intra-governmental and parliamentary crises have also accumulated; resulting
in one general systemic emergency. “In countries like Armenia, the resolving
of systemic crises is possible only by means of revolution,” Mkrtchian
mentioned.

ACNIS analyst Hovhannes Vardanian made a breakdown of the domestic and
external preconditions for a rebellion. According to his observations, the
revolts that have taken place in the post-Soviet region are primarily a
consequence of the public’s extreme social polarization, poverty, widespread
corruption, an atmosphere of arbitrariness and rights for the privileged,
and other adverse phenomena. In the words of Vardanian, revolutionary
developments in Armenia are being nourished by the factor that the incumbent
administration is not capable, in any way, of carrying out true systemic
reforms. “The current situation, which can be characterized by the
inactiveness and ineffectiveness of state authorities, unbridled
arbitrariness by high-level bureaucracy, advanced level of bribery and
corruption, and the explicit violation of law and order, is leading the
country toward anarchy and chaos, and the rule of the jungle, when the big
and strong eats up the small and weak, and this makes the chance of a
revolution in Armenia simply inevitable,” Vardanian said. Among external
stimuli, he set forth the “snowball effect.” In his opinion, from this
vantage point, the parliamentary elections to be held in Azerbaijan this
fall might turn into a serious test for Armenia.

Susanna Barseghian, another ACNIS analyst, deemed the printed media’s role
important in the formation of public opinion, and by means of a
content-analysis made a distinction among the ideas the media could form
when portraying the likelihood or unlikelihood of a revolution in Armenia.
“When reflecting on the probability of a revolt in Armenia, on the one hand,
the oppositional and pro-governmental press keeps talking about choosing the
‘right time’ for a democratic revolution, and on the other hand, it
refreshed the topic of inevitability of a ‘state coup,'” Barseghian
maintained, pointing out the important findings of her analysis. According
to it, in May alone, 13 Armenian periodicals have printed 153 articles, or
one report per one and a half issue, on the likelihood of a revolution, and
that constitutes 2.8% of total publication space printed in the researched
newspapers.

The remainder of the session was devoted to exchanges of views and policy
recommendations among the public figures and policy specialists in
attendance. Noteworthy were interventions by former minister of state and
board member of the Heritage Party Hrach Hakobian; Edward Antinian of the
Liberal Progressive Party; Noyan Tapan news agency political analyst Davit
Petrosian; Moushegh Lalayan of the Republican Party; ACNIS analyst Alvard
Barkhudarian; Artak Zeinalian of the Republic Party, Ruzan Khachatrian of
the People’s Party; “Areg” Youth Association chairman Gerasim Barseghian;
Alexander Butaev of the National Democratic Union; and many others.

The National Citizens’ Initiative is a public non-profit association founded
in December 2001 by Raffi K. Hovannisian, his colleagues, and fellow
citizens with the purpose of realizing the rule of law and overall
improvements in the state of the state, society, and public institutions.
The National Citizens’ Initiative is guided by a Coordinating Council, which
includes individual citizens and representatives of various public,
scientific, and educational establishments. Five commissions on Law and
State Administration, Socioeconomic Issues, Foreign Policy, Spiritual and
Cultural Challenges, and the Youth constitute the vehicles for the
Initiative’s work and outreach.

For further information, please call (37410) 27-16-00 or 27-00-03; fax
(37410) 52-48-46; e-mail info@nci.am; or visit