The Start of a New Friendship?
by Theresa Freese
15 August 2005

Transitions on Line, Czech Rep.
Aug 15 2005

Russia pulls its troops out of Georgia after two centuries, but how
significant is the move? From EurasiaNet.

Russia’s military withdrawal from its two bases in Georgia is being
heralded as a “new stage in Russian-Georgian relations.”

The pull-out is proceeding without a ratified framework agreement,
leaving Georgian defense officials to fulfill details without
a guiding document. The third stage of the withdrawal, currently
underway, involves the removal of at least 40 armored vehicles from
the Gonio firing range outside of the Black Sea city of Batumi to
amphibious landing ships destined for the Russian Black Sea port
of Novorossiysk. Twenty T-72 tanks, five BRDM combat reconnaissance
vehicles, 12 KUB self-propelled surface-to-air missiles, and three
Shilka air-defense systems will be withdrawn, Col. Alexander Kiknadze,
deputy chief of the general staff of the Georgian Armed Forces in
charge of the withdrawal, told reporters in Batumi.

“The most important thing in the withdrawal of Russian bases from
Georgia is that the final agreement be signed. That everything is
agreed. That everything is laid out point by point,” Col. Kiknadze
said. “When the final agreement is signed, future stages will be
clear,” Until then, he added, Georgian officials “hope that problems
don’t happen.”

Other military facilities “not used in the interests of GRVZ [Group
of Russian Troops in Trans-Caucasus],” headquartered in Tbilisi,
will be transferred to Georgia by 1 September. Once these stages
are complete, the second phase of the withdrawal will begin sometime
after 1 September, Col. Kiknadze said.

Without a framework agreement, Kiknadze explained that he and
his Russian counterpart, Gen. Valeri Yevnevich, refer to the draft
framework agreement, as well as to the deadlines established in the 30
May Joint Declaration on Russia’s withdrawal. “We agree on questions
as they arise and make decisions.”

Malhaz Mikeladze, Georgia’s ambassador-at-large for political-military
affairs at the foreign ministry, stressed that Moscow bears the burden
for completing the agreement. “On our side, we concluded this work,”
Mikeladze stated. “We look forward to the Russian side making similar
steps. We are ready to sign this agreement.” Mikeladze said the two
sides “reached a consensus” on 17 June on the text of the so-called
Agreement on Timeframe, Mode of Functioning and Withdrawal of the
Russian Military Bases from Georgia. He attributed Russia’s delay
to its “great bureaucracy” and various “internal procedures,” but
said that he remains “optimistic” that the final agreement will soon
be concluded.

An opportunity to set a date for a final agreement may come at the 27
August summit of leaders of the Commonwealth of Independent States in
the Russian city of Kazan, where Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili
and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet. “[I]t’s up
to these presidents to decide when the framework agreement is to be
signed,” Georgian Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili said, according
to a 2 August statement released by the Georgian foreign ministry.

Since the military pull-out began on 29 July, four convoys of
approximately 44 military vehicles have left from the 62nd base in
Akhalkalaki and the 12th base in Batumi. Three convoys headed to the
Russian territory of Kabardino-Balkaria and one to the Russian base
in Gyumri, Armenia. Russia has also already transferred to Georgia
the 142nd Armor/Tank Repair Factory in Tbilisi, and is expected to
hand three additional military facilities over to Georgian officials
by 1 September.

Georgian television reported that Batumi residents were on hand
to distribute flowers and champagne to Russian soldiers departing
Batumi on 30 July. “I’m proud when Georgian boots are marching, not
Russian,” said Ketevan Antidze, a Batumi-based political activist
for the governing National Movement Party.

Moscow’s military presence in Georgia stretches back over
two centuries. Today, more than 3,000 Russian military personnel
reportedly remain in Georgia at various bases and facilities, with
numerous Georgian citizens providing services. Under the terms of the
30 May Joint Declaration, the final withdrawal from Akhalkalaki and
the transfer of facilities is scheduled for “no later than the end
of 2007.” The Batumi and GRVZ pull-out is scheduled for completion
by 2008.

In line with a 1999 OSCE Istanbul Treaty, Russia pulled out of its
137th base in Vaziani, outside of Tbilisi, in 2000 and reported to have
done the same from its 50th base in Gudauta, in breakaway Abkhazia.

Many Georgians view the base withdrawal as a potential catalyst for
the resolution of other bilateral issues, in particular negotiated
settlements to the Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflicts. Some also
believe the withdrawal could enhance Georgia’s chances of joining
NATO. “The political value is that we will be a freer country with
greater possibility to operate in international organizations, such as
NATO,” said one Georgian official involved in the conflict resolution
process for South Ossetia and Abkhazia, who requested anonymity.

Even after base withdrawal process is completed, Russian troops will
remain on Georgian soil, acting in the capacity of international
peace-keepers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As long as those two
conflicts remain unresolved, Georgia’s NATO accession prospects could
remain uncertain. One U.S. defense analyst said that “the resolution
of these conflicts would be considered by [NATO] as a pre-condition
for membership.” However, the analyst added that “several senior
Georgian officials” have asked NATO to re-evaluate this position
“since it, in essence, provides Russia with an informal veto over
Tbilisi’s moving forward in the NATO accession process.”

Ambassador David Smith, the U.S. representative to the International
Security Advisory Board, an independent defense policy advisory
group, and chairman of the Georgia Forum, established in 2002 to
promote closer Georgia-US relations, agreed that the frozen conflicts
should not block Georgia’s NATO membership efforts. “[W]e should not
shoot ourselves and Georgia in the foot with preconditions,” Smith
said. “Should we ever say that Georgia cannot join NATO so long as
the conflicts are unresolved, rest assured that Moscow will never
allow the conflicts to be resolved.”

President Saakashvili recently praised Russia for taking a “very
brave step” in pulling out of Georgia. Other Georgian government
officials are hopeful that the departure of Russian troops could
speed efforts to negotiate political settlements to the Abkhazia
and South Ossetia conflicts. “As long as the Russian bases are here,
there is still hope for Abkhazia and South Ossetia that Russia will
help,” said one Georgian defense official who asked not to be named.
“When they are not here, it will be easier for negotiations.”

A Tbilisi-based Western diplomat, however, suggested that the base
withdrawal process would have minimal impact on the separatist
regions’ peace processes. “I don’t think they will have an effect
on negotiations over the two territories one way or the other,” the
diplomat said. “I think Russian strategic planners finally realized
that the bases were more or less worthless. … They were kept as an
irritant, a cheap way to keep Georgia on edge.”

Those who live in the vicinity of the two bases are worrying about
the economic impact of the Russians’ departure. The bases have long
been a major source of jobs for local residents, and many now believe
that when the Russian troops depart, employment opportunities will
dwindle. At present, the official unemployment rate in Ajaria, where
one of the Russian bases is located, is 18 percent, while the poverty
rate is 64 percent. Those rates could rise in the coming months. “Who
will employ the unemployed Georgians?” asked one man who owns a kiosk
near a Russian facility in Makhinjauli, just outside Batumi. “What
guarantee do we have after the Russians leave?”

But for others, the expected benefits of the Russians’ departure
outweigh the potential liabilities. “We would like economic relations
with Russia. But we don’t want their bases here,” said Alexander
Chitishvili, former head of an intelligence battalion in the Georgian
National Guard. “As long as they are here, we are a conquered country.”

Theresa Freese is a freelance journalist and political analyst who
has been conducting research on unresolved conflicts in the South
Caucasus since 2003. This is a partner-post from EurasiaNet.