Political Analyst Expects No Results from Azeri, Armenian Presidents’ Meeting

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Aug 19 2005

A political scholar sees no grounds for expecting positive results
from the upcoming meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in
Kazan, Russia.

“The meeting will not be any more important than the previous ones,”
analyst Rasim Musabayov told AssA-Irada.

Musabayov said the previous meeting of the two presidents held in
Key West, USA yielded no results despite its high level.

“I believe the chances for results at Kazan meeting are 50-50. It
may be fruitful or fruitless. The previous experience shows that the
sides tend to take final steps backward instead of forward when they
reach the decisive point. Therefore, I can’t say ahead of time that
the meeting will be beneficial,” he said.

Musabayov said the current positions of the conflicting sides are
contradictory, as Azerbaijan calls for withdrawal of Armenian forces
from the occupied territories, while Armenia – determination of the
Nagorno Karabakh status.

“From this viewpoint, the positions of the sides are not getting any
closer. If a compromise alternative is found, the issue can be moved
forward from the current deadlock,” Musabayov said.

As for the liberation of seven occupied districts around Karabakh,
the analyst said freeing them simultaneously will be difficult.
“Liberation of the occupied regions based on the ‘5+1+1’ formula
seems real,” he said.

The formula envisions freeing five Azeri regions from under Armenian
occupation first, followed by signing of a peace accord and liberation
of the other two regions.

Musabayov went on to say that the general situation with the Karabakh
conflict has changed in favor of Azerbaijan over the recent period.
Russia’s positions in the South Caucasus are weakening, this
country’s military bases are being withdrawn from Georgia, while
Armenia is losing communication links with Russia, which is in favor
of Azerbaijan, he said. Armenia is concerned over this, said Musabayov.

“Russia, which is the eternal ally of Armenia, understands too that
it will lose its positions in the Caucasus by prolonging the conflict
resolution.”

Musabayov said that another factor stipulating Azerbaijan’s prevalent
position is that the country’s financial potential is increasing.
Whereas military spending of Armenia makes up $200 million per year,
the figure is $300 million in Azerbaijan.

The political analyst pointed out that Azerbaijan’s potential will
allow spending $500 million for the military in 2006 and bringing
the figure to $1 billion in two years.

Armenia would have to commit its entire budget for defense in order
to withstand competition, which is impossible, he said.

“Armenians therefore think they should take a step today rather than
be forced to accept peace in a few years. These are the factors giving
a positive impetus to peace. But it is difficult to say whether this
will be enough for Armenia to give up its persistence,” he added.