US envoy says Armenia, Azerbaijan may be close to Karabakh settlement

Ayastani Anrapetutyun, Yerevan
18 Aug 05

Excellent opportunities have opened up for the parties to the Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict to pave the way to a settlement, the USA’s Karabakh
mediator Steven Mann has said in exclusive interview with Armenian
Ayastani Anrapetutyun newspaper. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are
committed to peace, there is mutual understanding, and the parties
are close to an agreement on some issues, Mann said. The following
is an excerpt from the interview by Tsovinar Nazaryan in Ayastani
Anrapetutyun on 18 August headlined “No party to negotiating process
can get 100 per cent of what it wants”; subheadings have been inserted
editorially:

[Ayastani Anrapetutyun correspondent Tsovinar Nazaryan] Mr Ambassador,
could you please first assess the current stage of the Karabakh
peace process?

[Steven Mann] During the last 18 months the Karabakh peace talks
have substantially intensified and there have been significant
meetings between the [Armenian and Azerbaijani] foreign ministers
and presidents. The USA highly appreciates this process.

[Nazaryan] Why exactly 18 months?

[Mann] The Prague process started 18 months ago. The foreign ministers
and the presidents had then confidential meetings with the Minsk Group
co-chairs. Since then discussions within the Minsk Group framework
have grown into professional talks.

Parties should show political will

[Nazaryan] Could you please specify what the talks have arrived at
so far – especially as in order to have some opinion the public first
have to have some picture of what is going on.

[Mann] No official agreement has been reached during the period. There
is mutual understanding, and the parties are close to an agreement on
some issues. Of course, nobody wants to break the confidentiality of
the process. But agreement is possible if the parties show political
will. This will allow them to iron out their differences.

[Nazaryan] Is the Minsk Group interested in involving Nagornyy Karabakh
in the peace process or is it taking any steps to that effect as
obviously it is Nagornyy Karabakh’s fate that is being decided?

[Mann] The talks are continuing in the Armenia-Azerbaijan format.

[Nazaryan] Are there any settlement scenarios applicable to the
Karabakh conflict or can the Karabakh peace process be a model itself?

[Mann] The Karabakh conflict is a special and unique conflict. During
my work in the USA I dealt with some conflicts. There are some
similarities but each conflict is unique. Of course, we can learn
some lessons from the Balkan or Asian conflicts but this particular
conflict has its peculiar background and conditions.

[Nazaryan] Some other international organizations have lately shown
enhanced interest in the conflict, in particular the Council of Europe
and the EU. Do you think they might have more effective negotiating
resources than the OSCE and particularly the Minsk Group?

[Mann] The outsiders can help, promote the process but it is up to
the conflicting parties to find a solution. On behalf of the USA I
can say that we would very much like to see the conflict resolved. In
this situation the USA is a good friend for both countries.

[passage omitted: Mann on opening of US embassy in Armenia, working
in oil and gas sphere in Azerbaijan]

Parties committed to peace

[Nazaryan] What about the US support of Nagornyy Karabakh? Does it
imply a special attitude towards the republic?

[Mann] You should not see much in this. The USA is providing Nagornyy
Karabakh with small humanitarian assistance with no political
implications.

[Nazaryan] People in Azerbaijan often speak about oil factor in
the Karabakh peace process. What will be more decisive here – oil
or democracy?

[Mann] In order to resolve the conflict the parties will have to show
political will and commitment towards mutual concessions.

[Nazaryan] How could you assess the commitment of the parties for
peace in terms of their public and governments?

[Mann] The commitment of the presidents is obvious. I am convinced that
both [Armenian President] Robert Kocharyan and [Azerbaijani President]
Ilham Aliyev sincerely want peace. As to the public, they obviously
want all but war. The history of the Caucasus is changing. And the
last we will have to see will hopefully be solutions presented to
the public for approval.

“Excellent opportunities” for future talks

[Nazaryan] Are you or the other Minsk Group co-chairs informed of the
limits of possible concessions by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagornyy
Karabakh?

[Mann] Lots of discussions are being held on this issue. There is
a good chance for each party to achieve most of its goals. Such
talks are very hard to hold but there are excellent opportunities
for further development. No party to a negotiating process can get
100 per cent of what it wants. But the parties to the Karabakh peace
process have real opportunities for paving a stable way to settlement
provided they show strong political will.

[Nazaryan] Could you specify what “excellent opportunities” you are
talking about? Are there proposals on paper? And generally, what do
you expect from the Kazan meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani
presidents?

[Mann] The “excellent” word would be better replaced by “reasonable”
and “professional”. I do not want to create an impression that this
all is very easy. This is a hard task but the parties have done much
in this direction. The USA is closely following the work carried out
since the beginning of the Prague Process. This period has laid the
foundations for the current stage leading to the Kazan meeting. The
USA expects the parties to use this opportunity for further dialogue
and talks – in the subsequent excellent periods as well.