BAGAPSH IN MOSCOW ADVERTISES GOAL OF SECESSION FROM GEORGIA
by Vladimir Socor

Eurasia Daily Monitor — The Jamestown Foundation
Friday, August 19, 2005 — Volume 2, Issue 163

On August 17 in Moscow, Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh openly confirmed
the political program of Abkhazia’s secession from Georgia and de
facto merger with Russia. Speaking at a specially organized, widely
covered news conference, he outlined a set of legislative, military,
and economic measures to that end.

According to Bagapsh, the handing over of Russia’s citizenship to
Abkhazia’s residents has almost been completed: 84% of the current
residents have Russian citizenship, and 70% of the pensioners receive
Russian state pensions. Both figures should reach close to 100%
within the next six to 12 months, Bagapsh stated. In parallel with
this, the Abkhaz legislature is engaged in consultations with Russian
counterparts about bringing Abkhazia’s “laws” in line with the Russian
Federation’s legislation. Bagapsh stopped short of identifying those
Russian legislative consultants, and his percentage figures did not
take into account the ethnically cleansed Georgians, who had formed
a plurality of Abkhazia’s pre-1993 population.

The merger of “Abkhaz citizenship” with that of Russia has advanced
far enough for Abkhazia to request Russian authorities to accept the
transfer of Abkhaz common-law convicts to serve their sentences in
Russian prisons. Pleading poverty, the Abkhaz “parliament” chairman,
Nugzar Ashuba (a Bagapsh supporter in the Abkhaz internecine rivalries)
made that proposal in the course of the visit to Russia.

According to Bagapsh, Abkhazia is entitled “as any country” to possess
an army. Abkhazia does not criticize Western assistance to Georgia’s
army and it claims by the same token the right to receive Russian
assistance for the Abkhaz army, he argued. According to him, the
army numbers 10,000-12,000, not counting reservists. Abkhazia covers
some 20% of its military budget (implying that Russia covers 80%),
and 70% of Abkhazia’s military personnel have Russian citizenship,
he said. Moreover, “An influx of military specialists from Russia
is under way. These are mainly middle-rank personnel … We gladly
accept motorists, naval petty officers, border troops personnel”
(Interfax, August 17).

That remark suggests that Moscow and Sukhumi may prepare to create
and station “Abkhaz border troops” on Abkhazia’s “borders” and create
a fledgling “Abkhaz” coast guard, in addition to the army. Bagapsh
also reserved the right for Abkhazia to “invite” senior military
officers from Russia if necessary. He omitted the fact that Abkhazia’s
“defense minister,” “chief of staff,” and some other non-Abkhaz
senior officers are seconded from Russia’s military to the Abkhaz
army. Under the command of those two Russian generals this week, the
Abkhaz “permanent battalions” along with reservists are conducting
the largest military exercise since the 1992-93 Russian military
intervention against Georgia in Abkhazia.

Russia and Abkhazia intend to reopen and use in their interests the
“Abkhaz” section of Georgia’s state railway irrespective of Georgia’s
position, Bagapsh told the news conference. Russian state-connected
companies will cover the costs, estimated at $130-150 million.
Technicians from Russian Railways initiated that work last week.
Similarly, Russian companies are scheduled to begin on September 10
the reconstruction of the main motor highway in Abkhazia, from the
Russian to the Georgian “border,” without regard to Georgia.

A delighted Bagapsh also announced that Russian tourism in Abkhazia
this season is set to approach “Soviet-era levels,” with more than 1
million vacationers ensuring more than 50% occupancy of Abkhazia’s
accommodation capacities, despite those facilities’ admittedly
dilapidated state. Although that figure looks exaggerated, Bagapsh
displayed confidence that Russian tourism would become the main source
of sustenance to Abkhazia’s economy. He did not mention the fact that
Russian state and private entities are buying up choice properties
in Abkhazia on the cheap, and without regard to Georgia’s rights as
legal sovereign or the rights of lawful owners who have been turned
into refugees.

Bagapsh displayed no interest in a political settlement with
Tbilisi other than some form of recognition of Abkhazia’s secession
and coexistence of “two neighboring states.” As a first step in
that direction, he called for the signing of a Georgia-Abkhazia
“agreement on security guarantees,” which he said might be signed
along with economic agreements by himself with Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili. As he did earlier this month (Regnum, August 4),
Bagapsh again challenged Saakashvili to “take a historic opportunity”
and recognize Abkhazia’s secession from Georgia.

Repeatedly during the news conference, Bagapsh referred to the goal of
Abkhazia obtaining the status of an “associated” unit with the Russian
Federation. He and his Russian handlers know, however, that such an
option is both unrealistic and unnecessary. Moscow encourages Sukhumi
(and also some of Moscow’s own, officially licensed hardliners)
to raise this dramatic prospect in order to make their gradualist
steps and demands appear moderate by comparison. Those steps and
demands are directed toward the incorporation of Abkhazia by Russia
de facto, without requiring risky or controversial precedent-setting
in international law, and without shaking the international community
out of its complacency.

(Interfax, RIA-Novosti, Prime-News, August 17, 18; see EDM, August 1,
10, 16)

–Vladimir Socor