Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
August 19, 2005, Friday
KOCHARIAN DOUBLECROSSES RUSSIA
SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 19, 2005, pp. 1, 4
by Anatoly Gordienko, Nelli Orlova
President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia is about to make a
brief visit to Armenia. Armenia is awaiting the president of its
neighbor-state. Presidential Press Secretary Viktor Sogomonjan says
that a meeting between the two heads of state is being planned,
but it will be “unofficial, a meeting of friends.”
There is nothing extraordinary in meetings between presidents of
neighboring countries – but official Moscow is somewhat wary about
Saakashvili’s potential friendship with Armenian President Robert
Kocharian. Russian experts widely comment on the “informal” nature of
presidents of Georgia and Armenia that became noticeably more frequent
after the Revolution of Roses in Tbilisi in 2003. There were at least
two or three such meetings in Tbilisi and one in Yerevan.
Sergei Markedonov, cirector of the Ethnic Relations Department at
the Political and Military Analysis Institute, doesn’t rule out
the possibility that Yerevan is seeking new bearing points in its
foreign policy, the bearing points that do not have anything to do
with Russia. “The danger exists that Armenia may turn to the West,”
Markedonov said. The political scientist even believes that Saakashvili
may be playing the role of an intermediary between the West and leaders
of Armenia. “Saakashvili himself said more than once that he wanted
more than just being president of Georgia,” Markedonov said. “That’s
why everything is possible… What concerns me is that Armenia has
been viewed until now as Russia’s mot reliable and actually only
strategic ally in the southern part of the Caucasus. A great deal
of Russian military hardware from the military bases in Georgia is
shipped to this country, upping its own defense potential, by the
way. Russia chalked off Armenia’s debts not long ago and set out
to reanimate Armenian energy sphere and other sectors of national
economy. Essentially, Yarevan’s rapprochement with the patently
hostile Georgia is a blow at Russian interests in the region.”
Alexei Makarkin, deputy director of the Political Techniques Center,
also mentioned the danger of Armenia’s potential turn to Georgia.
“Kocharian’s steps in this direction will seriously jeopardize
positions of Russia in the region,” Makarkin said. “Still, this is
not something we should really expect and fear. Kocharian is clearly
pro-Russian, and so is his government. It is the opposition in Armenia
that is pro-Western because official Moscow backed the president in the
past presidential election in Armenia.” Makarkin doesn’t deny at the
same time that Saakashvili’s frequent visits to Armenia aim to instill
and encourage pro-Western moods in this country. “The United States is
actively forcing its own ideology on the post-Soviet territory Russia
has always dominated. Saakashvili and President of Ukraine Viktor
Yushchenko are essentially conduits of this ideology. I suspect that
Saakashvili’s frequent meetings with Kocharian are an indication of
their mushrooming aspirations in the CIS. That their next meeting is
scheduled for before the CIS summit in Kazan is but a demonstration of
independence. That’s a way of showing that they are going to meet with
whoever they want and whenever they want regardless of the ineffective
Commonwealth whose potential is clearly exhausted,” Makarkin explained.
Official Yerevan did not take to these conclusions at all. “There are
no reasons to assume that the rapprochement with Tbilisi indicates
any changes in the attitude toward Russia,” Sogomonjan said. Press
secretary recalled traditions of the Georgian-Armenian friendship
and existence of a substantial Armenian diaspora in Georgia. “In
short, we have more in common than geography and geopolitics alone,”
Sogomonjan said.
Tbilisi is also discussing Saakashvili’s forthcoming visit to
Armenia. Any anti-Russian conspiracy between Georgia and Armenia
is vehemently denounced. “Rapprochement between Kocharian and
Saakashvili should not worry Russia at least for several reasons,”
says Ramaz Sakvarelidze, a prominent Georgian political scientist.
“First, there is no proof that Saakashvili will actually try to convert
Kocharian in Sevan, to tempt the president of Armenia into shifting
his and his foreign policy’s bearing points. A polar process cannot
be ruled out, right? So, we cannot rule out the possibility that
Russia’s interests in this part of the Caucasus will only benefit
from this meeting. After all, if countries of the Caucasus stop
playing chaotically and begin pursuing a coordinated policy, it
will ensure stability and protection of Russian interests on their
territories. Moreover, agendas of Georgian-Armenian summits do not
usually include any global matters. The president always concentrate
on the problems that worry Georgia and Armenia. Besides, meeting
like that may do something about the tangled Azerbaijani-Armenian
relations… I’m talking about Saakashvili’s services of a go-between.”
In the meantime, Yerevan is already taking steps that do conflict
with Russian interests. Not long ago, the Armenian Commission for
Public Services demanded from management of Armenian Power Lines
explanations with regard to the deal in which its shares had ended up
in the hands of RAO Unified Energy Systems. Shares of the Armenian
company were turned over to Interenergo B.V., a subsidiary of RAO
Unified Energy Systems, where RAO Unified Energy Systems itself had 60%
and Rosenergoatom 40%. It occurred to Yerevan all of a sudden that the
national legislation doesn’t permit any deals with shares of Armenian
Power Lines without the government’s dispensation. Moreover, Russia’s
ratio in the Armenian foreign trade (all of it passing through the
territory of Georgia) went down.
Translated by A. Ignatkin