AZG Armenian Daily #149, 24/08/2005

Karabakh issue

PACKAGE YET STEP-BY-STEP SOLUTION TO KARABAKH ISSUE

Why Aliyev Turns Skeptic? – Analysts Comment

The Foreign Affairs Ministry of Armenia responded to the last statement of
Azerbaijani President on Saturday. Vartan Oskanian replied to the Azeri
comprehension of Karabakh regulation methodology, to “arming race” in the
neighboring state and to aggressive and belligerent statements of Ilham
Aliyev.

“Everybody is well aware, including the Azeris, that the status of Nagorno
Karabakh is primary in the Karabakh regulation and it should be decided
based on the right of people of Karabakh on choosing its own destiny. Other
issues – elimination of conflict aftereffects, return of territories and
refugees – stem out of the primary one and will follow it. The package
regulation, certainly, can be realized step by step, and we can and are
ready to display flexibility”, Armenian foreign minister told Armenpress.

What shall we understand from Oskanian’s comment? Davit Babayan, political
analyst from Stepanakert, voices his opinion: “This means that the
conflicting sides come to an agreement, sign a peace treaty itemizing all
necessary issues of regulation – status of Nagorno Karabakh, territories
under Karabakh control, refugees, blockade etc. They settle secondary issues
through step-by-step alternative. The package regulation is to be applied
for the status of Karabakh as recognition is of declarative character, i.e.
Baku should recognize Karabakh as part of Armenia or as a sovereign state.
All other issues, demanding technical preparation and finances, can be
settled gradually”.

Stepan Safarian, expert at the Armenian Center for Strategic and National
Research, thinks that Oskanian’s approach suggests the following: reaching
written agreement over all issues, including status, but informing the
public about the phases and realizing them gradually in course of time. “In
that case, Aliyev can avert serious problems with the public opinion on the
threshold of parliamentary elections. Moreover, first steps regarding
territories and refugees can be in favor of the Azeri society. Those issues
will be settled once Azerbaijan agrees to present guarantees for the status
of Karabakh”, Safarian says.

Armenian foreign minister explained earlier what he means by “flexibility”.
“We tend to document the right of self-determination of the people of
Karabakh and can be flexible as regards the time of the final
materialization”. This means that self-determination can be realized in
10-15 years, otherwise Azerbaijan may refuse the status that Yerevan and
Stepanakert strive for, once getting Karabakh-controlled territories.

“If we settle issues concerning conflict aftereffects without deciding the
status of Karabakh, then one of the sides may reject its obligations
changing thus military-political situation”, Babayan says.

A few days prior to Kazan meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents,
Ilham Aliyev displays skepticism over negotiation process. The Azeri
President noted in particular that “he tends to peaceful regulation”. “But,
as you can see, there is no visible progress here. Therefore we should be
ready to liberate our lands by force if needed. To do that, Azerbaijan has
to be twice as powerful as Armenia”, Aliyev said, pointing out that the
Prague Process suggests step-by-step regulation and, regarding the status,
Karabakh can get the highest autonomy within Azerbaijan.

“Azerbaijan, as a rule, either picks at the Minsk group or expresses
skepticism over the talks process whenever it fails to get what it wants.
Regarding the Azeri definition or estimation of the Prague Process, they
pose their wishes as reality”, Oskanian told Armenpress.

Stepan Safarian explains the reason of Ilham Aliyev’s skepticism: “Aliyev
pleases Russia by hinting at the prospect of no soon regulation, especially
when the immediate regulation is somehow connected with the prospect of
locating US military bases in Azerbaijan, regarding which America expects
Aliyev’s reply (in an interview to News Week Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan
“is no outpost to any country”). The Azeri President, in this regard, tries
to make the US understand that it is not satisfied with current agreements
and wants more for the price of “its agreement”.

Besides, the expert thinks, Aliyev tries to demonstrate “his own rebellion”
against the West’s pressure in demanding Azerbaijan to hold democratic
elections and in supporting the opposition.

Vartan Oskanian also noted in his comments that “the increase of
Azerbaijan’s military budget owing to dollars from oil does not give them
much in essence”. “Azerbaijan can neither attract us with oil, nor, even
more so, frighten us. Armenia always has the capacity to counterbalance any
military budget of Azerbaijan. In fact, the privilege of the Armenians is
not in the military expenses or arming but in being just in their claim.
Armenians believe in their righteousness in the Karabakh issue and in case
of a war will fight for their land and home – something that the Azeris did
not do and will not do”, Oskanian said.

By Tatoul Hakobian