THREAT OF REVOLUTION AND KARABAKH ISSUE MAKE ALIYEV TURN TO MOSCOW
By Tatoul Hakobian

AZG Armenian Daily #150

25/08/2005

Karabakh issue

Vartan Oskanian, foreign affairs minister of Armenia, and his Azeri
counterpart, Elmar Mammediarov, held yesterday a meeting in Moscow,
which was witnessed by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen. “Within the
frameworks of the Prague Process, the ministers discussed all elements
of peaceful settlement of the conflict, some of which are supposed to
top the agenda of Kazan meeting between Armenian and Azeri presidents
this weekend. Discussions, already informal, continued at lunch
with the participation of Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov”,
press service of RA Foreign Ministry informs.

Oskanian and Mammediarov had another informal meeting on August 23.
According to Regnum agency, positions of the sides essentially
disagree. Mammediarov said particularly after the meeting that
“Karabakh has to remain within the structure of Azerbaijan”, adding
that the sides try to come to some kind of agreement over these
issues. The Azeri minister, who labeled the idea of a referendum to
decide the status of Nagorno Karabakh a provocation against Azerbaijan
only a few weeks ago, stated in Moscow that the sides discuss the
possibility of holding a referendum. “It’s quite another matter how
we will hold it”, Mammediarov said.

Elmar Mammediarov also stated several days ago that Armenian and Azeri
sides disagree over 7-9 issues. Ever since the mediators visited region
in July, Baku has been skeptical over the expected “breakthrough” as
the Kazan meeting approaches. In this regard, Russia is also doubtful,
contrary to the US co-chair who is still moderately optimistic. It
may happen that the Russian side is not interested in comprehensive
and final regulation, as that will even more undermine its positions
in South Caucasus.

This is, perhaps, the reason of noticeable thaw in Russian-Azeri
relations. Ilham Aliyev, whose perception was one of a pro-Western
only 1.5 year ago, has turned to the Moscow. Two factors the least –
the Karabakh issue and the threat of a velvet revolution – made the
Azeri President reconsider his foreign policy priorities. This is,
certainly, for the time being, as Ilham Aliyev sees the place of
Azerbaijan in Euro-Atlantic structures, beside the USA.

In an interview to British Sky News, Aliyev stated that they are not
planning to locate US military bases in Azerbaijan, nor they negotiate
on this issue. He called such information rumors that often come about
on purpose. Earlier, in an interview to News Week, Aliyev declared
that Azerbaijan is no outpost to any state.

Suchlike statement may well aim to make the Americans understand
that Baku is not satisfied with Washington’s policy in Karabakh
issue. In his statements to Sky News Aliyev complained in effect
of the international community, which urges Azerbaijan to keep back
from “forcible liberation of territories that are under Armenian’s
occupation for over 10 years”. Aliyev cannot be also satisfied with the
statements of American officials about parliamentary election November
6. The US and European organizations threaten the Azeri President
that another rigged election can turn into a real trial for Azerbaijan.

Only 2 years ago Azeri officials used to declare of their wish to
join NATO but their voices have subsided recently. Saying Azerbaijan
is no outpost Baku apparently means no outpost for the NATO or
US forces. While paying a working visit to the US capital in early
August, Elmar Mammediarov never spoke of Azerbaijan joining NATO. A
few months ago when Donald Rumsfeld visited Baku, the Azeri President
avoided to meet him and left for Pakistan.

>>From the point of view of tactics, Moscow’s stance in Karabakh
issue is more acceptable for Aliyev today; President Putin describes
it in the following way: there should be no winners and losers,
Russia will exert no pressure on the sides. Positions of Russians and
Azeris coincide in the issue of velvet revolutions either. Moscow’s
response is edgy to West-supported revolutions in post-soviet terrain,
traditionally considered zone of Russian influence.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress